A few weeks ago, I did a deep dive into recent Best Musical winners to see how they typically fare at the box office at this point in the summer after winning the Tony. Let's do another comparison of these shows looking at the first performance week in August the year they won Best Musical (I skip over Hamilton, Dear Evan Hansen, and Moulin Rouge! for reasons explained in my last post linked above):
2022 - A Strange Loop | Week ending August 7, 2022
Gross: $645,832
Average ticket: $108.09
Top ticket: $373.00
Capacity: 7,296 / Attendance: 5,975
Capacity Filled: 81.89%
2019 - Hadestown | Week ending August 4, 2019
Gross: $1,324,130
Average ticket: $177.93
Top ticket: $449.00
Capacity: 7,344 / Attendance: 7,442
Capacity Filled: 101.33%
2018 - The Band’s Visit | Week ending August 5, 2018
Gross: $976,256
Average ticket: $117.45
Top ticket: $297.00
Capacity: 8,312 / Attendance: 8,312
Capacity Filled: 100.00%
2015 - Fun Home | Week ending August 2, 2015
Gross: $782,634
Average ticket: $130.96
Top ticket: $280.00
Capacity: 5,920 / Attendance: 5,976
Capacity Filled: 100.95%
2014 - Gentleman’s Guide | Week ending August 3, 2014
Gross: $950,133
Average ticket: $129.76
Top ticket: $327
Capacity: 7,256 / Attendance: 7,322
Capacity Filled: 100.91%
It think it's safe to say that a Best Musical winner should typically expect to still be selling out the house by the first week of August in the year it wins the Tony, about two months after the awards ceremony. A Strange Loop is doing really badly on this front at only 81.89% filled.
Interestingly, A Strange Loop sold almost the exact same number of tickets that Fun Home did in this comparison (5,975 vs. 5,976 tickets). And yet, Fun Home still made over $100k+ more in gross sales and also quite literally couldn't have sold any more tickets than that, since it was at the venue's SRO capacity. A Strange Loop had over 1,300 unsold tickets this past week.
If A Strange Loop can't sell out the house the summer after winning the Tony, there's virtually no hope for it by the wintertime. Either they need to drastically revamp their marketing, put a star in the cast, or I personally predict they will close by New Year's.