Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
esparza 333
Broadway Star Joined: 7/24/07
#1Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 4:47pmWe all know that every year there is at least one category that has an upset (Last Year David Hyde Pierce, Year Before Christian Hoff and Lachanze) at the tony awards. Which category do you think is most likely to upset?
Current Avatar:The sensational Aaron Tveit in the soon to be hit production of Catch Me If You Can.
jake6970
Broadway Star Joined: 9/21/07
#2re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 4:51pmI don't really consider LaChanze an upset. I think most people expected either Patti or LaChanze to take it.
SueleenGay
Broadway Legend Joined: 6/9/03
#2re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 4:51pmMary Testa winning Featured Actress!
PEACE.
bwaygal1
Broadway Legend Joined: 1/5/07
#3re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 4:53pmThis is a tough year to call. I would say actor or actress in a musical could happen. Best musical itself is another possibility.
"A birdcage I plan to hang. I'll get to that someday. A birdcage for a bird who flew away...Around the world."
"Life is a cabaret old chum, only a cabaret old chum, and I love a cabaret!"-RIP Natasha Richardson-I was honored to have witnessed her performance as Sally Bowles.
#4re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 4:57pm
I think of them more as "surprises" than upsets.
This year, I'm going to say Best Featured Actor in a Musical, where I am predicting a surprise win for Daniel Breaker.
The LuPone scenario is much different this time around...think of Ebersole/Grey Gardens, when everyone knew she was going to win, she had fantastic reviews, and yet, people still tried to manufacture some sort of race between Ebersole and Audra McDonald.
#5re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 5:00pm
I don't really think Christian Hoff was an upset, either: THREEPENNY OPERA was so despised that year that I don't think even Jim Dale had much of a chance.
This year:
BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY: (possible upset) Mark Rylance
BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL: (possible upset) Daniel Evans
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL: (possible upset) Boyd Gaines
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL: (possible upset) Loretta Ables Sayre
BEST DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL: Arthur Laurents
BEST CHOREOGRAPHER: Rob Ashford
"Y'know, I think Bertolt Brecht was rolling in his grave."
-Nellie McKay on the 2006 Broadway production of The Threepenny Opera, in which she played Polly Peachum
-Nellie McKay on the 2006 Broadway production of The Threepenny Opera, in which she played Polly Peachum
#6re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 5:01pmHow would a win for Boyd Gaines be an upset? He's sort of the "safe," conventional choice, no?
#7re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 5:05pm
The whole point of an upset is that it is surprising. If we're expecting an upset, it's not really an upset so much as foreseen-by-some.
#8re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 5:06pm
How would a win for Boyd Gaines be an upset? He's sort of the "safe," conventional choice, no?
Because I think the voters will want to give PASSING STRANGE at least one award. Best Score won't happen (I don't think), as they'll want to give Mr. Miranda something as well. So Daniel Breaker, I feel, has this one in the bag - but Boyd Gaines is certainly a possibility.
But if he does win, it'll be an upset to me.
"Y'know, I think Bertolt Brecht was rolling in his grave."
-Nellie McKay on the 2006 Broadway production of The Threepenny Opera, in which she played Polly Peachum
-Nellie McKay on the 2006 Broadway production of The Threepenny Opera, in which she played Polly Peachum
Broadway Legend Joined: 12/31/69
Yankeefan007
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/20/04
#10re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 5:11pmPassing Strange as Best Musical
#11re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 6:51pm
Again- LuPone, Benanti and Gaines will win. They've had their awards since the reviews. Putting them up against anyone else is all that Ebesole vs. McDonald bull**** we had to hear last year.
But...
Arthur Laurents could win Director. I doubt it, but he could.
And BustopherPhantom- Don't say Passing Strange can't win Score. It certainly can. I think this will be an Avenue Q sort of year where everyone will expect the big touring honcho to win (ITH) but will want (and vote for) the smaller (perhaps better, though not IMO) piece, Passing Strange. I think it can win Score and Musical.
Tag
Broadway Legend Joined: 11/19/05
#12re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 6:55pmA Jenna Russell surprise would be perfect.
ben4
Stand-by Joined: 6/10/07
#13re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 7:33pm
If there are upsets they will be in favor of the productions with momentum and at the expense of the "frontrunners" that have been doing well all year.
I for one think it's possible we'll see one or two suprises and it's always best to never be too confident...
Best Musical- Passing Strange over In The Heights... it's possible...ditto for Book and Score
Best Revival of a Musical- Sunday in Park With George or Gypsy over the generally agreed upon favorite, South Pacific?
Lead Actress in a Play- Amy Morton over Dunagan? People are talking about both performances equally and in the end Morton's may be considered the subtler, less showy role.
Lead Actor in a Musical- Daniel Evans or even Stew? Would this be a surprise?
Lead Actress in a Musical- Are they really gonna let O'Hara go home empty handed again? Jenna Russell is a threat as well.
Featured Actor in a Musical- Boyd Gaines has won three times already. Maybe Breaker or even the annoying guy from In The Heights could surprise.
Direction of a Musical- I bet In The Heights doesn't win this. Laurents, Buntrock, or Sher would be much more respectable choices.
ashley0139
Broadway Legend Joined: 1/3/05
#14re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 7:40pm
Lead Actress in a Musical- Are they really gonna let O'Hara go home empty handed again? Jenna Russell is a threat as well.
Yes, because they're never going to let Patti go home empty handed again.
Featured Actor in a Musical- Boyd Gaines has won three times already. Maybe Breaker or even the annoying guy from In The Heights could surprise.
I want to see him win because then he'll have won all four acting awards.
"This table, he is over one hundred years old. If I could, I would take an old gramophone needle and run it along the surface of the wood. To hear the music of the voices. All that was said." - Doug Wright, I Am My Own Wife
#15re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 7:47pm
A win this year wouldn't give Boyd Gaines all four acting awards. He won:
Best Featured Actor in a Play for The Heidi Chronicles,
Best Leading Actor in a Musical for She Loves Me,
and Best Featured Actor in a Musical for Contact.
He'd have to win Best Leading Actor in a Play to win all four. (Which, by the by, he was nominated for last year for Journey's End.)
"You mean what was the best picture of the year or what did they pick as the best picture of the year?" - California Suite
Updated On: 6/12/08 at 07:47 PM
#16re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 7:56pmthat Boyd Gaines is such a slacker, let me tell you.
When I see the phrase "the ____ estate", I imagine a vast mansion in the country full of monocled men and high-collared women receiving letters about productions across the country and doing spit-takes at whatever they contain.
-Kad
ashley0139
Broadway Legend Joined: 1/3/05
#17re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 8:03pm
A win this year wouldn't give Boyd Gaines all four acting awards. He won:
Best Featured Actor in a Play for The Heidi Chronicles,
Best Leading Actor in a Musical for She Loves Me,
and Best Featured Actor in a Musical for Contact.
He'd have to win Best Leading Actor in a Play to win all four. (Which, by the by, he was nominated for last year for Journey's End.)
My mistake. Well, I still want him to win. :)
"This table, he is over one hundred years old. If I could, I would take an old gramophone needle and run it along the surface of the wood. To hear the music of the voices. All that was said." - Doug Wright, I Am My Own Wife
#18re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 8:03pm
If you're still confused over the meaning of "upset":
Xanadu winning best musical would not be an upset. Cry-Baby winning best musical would be an upset.
#19re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 8:15pm
that Boyd Gaines is such a slacker, let me tell you.
I know. He hasn't even gotten one nomination in the Actress categories. I don't think he's trying.
"You mean what was the best picture of the year or what did they pick as the best picture of the year?" - California Suite
#20re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 8:18pmPuh-leeze. Lin-Manuel AND Stew got Score nominations. If he cared at all, he'd write his own musical to get book and score.
#21re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 8:21pmAnd why hasn't he started choreographing / directing?
"You mean what was the best picture of the year or what did they pick as the best picture of the year?" - California Suite
iluvny04
Stand-by Joined: 7/17/03
#22re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 8:21pm
Again- LuPone, Benanti and Gaines will win. They've had their awards since the reviews. Putting them up against anyone else is all that Ebesole vs. McDonald bull**** we had to hear last year.
No jv92, I don't think so, you may not want to hear it,but this definitely not christine vs. audra, this situation is different because an upset for leading actress is very likely, yes I said an upset for leading actress is very likely. If you look at the Ny times even brantley and isherwood in their predictions don't say patti's name alone for will/should win. The predictions state brantley- will-patti/should-patti and kelli tie, isherwood-will-patti/should-kelli. Even the latimes who gave patti an absolut rave is doubting patti's chances because of her divish behavior,but that could be hearsay and rumors just to make the race more interesting. To just say that the patti has the award hands down is boring,no I rather debate and talks of upsets it makes more interesting andnot boring like most award shows. You say its bulls***,but the fact of the matter is that this situation is definitely different from last year and unlike christine who had it in the bag, patti almost has it in the bag. Did you hear that almost, which means that upset is just about 95% certain to occur. I am right, are you right, we don't know until the name is called Sunday night.
As for this:
Lead Actress in a Musical- Are they really gonna let O'Hara go home empty handed again? Jenna Russell is a threat as well.
Yes, because they're never going to let Patti go home empty handed again
In terms of this statement, even if Patti goes home empty handed at this year's awards, she still has an award for Evita, so in a way she will not be empty handed at all. So the answer in my opinion is no-Kelli has a great chance and yes so does Jenna (but so much as Kelli) of taking home a Tony for the first time.
#23re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 8:24pmI really feel momemtum heading the way of Passing Strange. But had too many people already voted at that point?
#24re: Category Most Likely to Have an Upset
Posted: 6/12/08 at 11:22pm
A Jenna Russell upset would make me extremely happy.
I'll probably get attacked for this, but I can kind of see Olga Merediz surprising everyone and winning.
The choice may have been mistaken, The choosing was not... "Every day has the potential to be the greatest day of your life." - Lin-Manuel Miranda
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