Final Tony Predictions in All Categories

Best Play - Liberation 
Best Musical - Schmigadoon!
Revival of A Play - Arthur Miller’s Death of A Salesman 
Revival of A Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball 
Lead Actor in a Musical - Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Lead Actress in a Musical - Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Leading Actor in A Play - John Lithgow, Giant
Leading Actress in A Play - Susannah Flood, Liberation
Best Book of A Musical - Schmigadoon!
Original Score - Schmigadoon!
Scenic Design of A Play - Death of A Salesman
Scenic Design of A Musical - The Lost Boys
Costume Design of A Play - Joe Turner’s Come & Gone
Costume Design of A Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Lighting Design of A Play - Death of A Salesman
Lighting Design of A Musical - The Lost Boys
Sound Design of A Play - Death of A Salesman
Sound Design of A Musical - The Rocky Horror Show
Direction of A Play - Death of A Salesman
Direction of A Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Choreography - Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Orchestrations -  Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Featured Actor in A Play - Rueben Santiago Hudson
Featured Actress in A Play - Betsy Aidem, Liberation
Featured Actor in a Musical - Andre De Shields, Cats
Featured Actress in A Musical - Shoshana Bean

Overall Tally
Death of A Salesman - 5
Cats: The Jellicle Ball - 5
The Lost Boys - 3
Schmigadoon - 3
Liberation - 3
Joe Turner’s Come & Gone - 2
Ragtime - 2
Giant - 1
The Rocky Horror Show - 1

Lost boys- best musical and design categories and book, score, director, choreography, featured actress, featured actor

liberation- clean sweep, play, director, leading actress, featured actress, costumes

john Lithgow, Marla mindelle, Josh Henry, Richard Thomas

 

Best Play - Liberation 

Best Musical - Schmigadoon!

Best Revival of a Play - Death of a Salesman

Best Revival of a Musical - Ragtime

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play - John Lithgow, Giant

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play - Lesley Manville, Oedipus

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical - Joshua Henry, Ragtime

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical - Caissie Levy, Ragtime

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play - Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play - Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical - Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical - Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys

Best Direction of a Play - Joe Mantello, Death of a Salesman

Best Direction of a Musical - Lear DeBessonet, Ragtime

Best Book of a Musical - Cinco Paul, Schmigadoon!

Best Original Score - Jim Barne and Kit Buchan, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Best Scenic Design of a Play - David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon

Best Scenic Design of a Musical - Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys

Best Costume Design of a Play - Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels

Best Costume Design of a Musical - Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Lighting Design of a Play - Jack Knowles, Death of a Salesman

Best Lighting Design of a Musical - Michael Arden and Jen Schriever, The Lost Boys

Best Sound Design of a Play - Tom Gibbons, Oedipus

Best Sound Design of a Musical - Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Choreography - Arturo Lyons and Omari Wiles, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Orchestrations: Trevor Holder, Doug Schadt, Andrew Lloyd Webber, and David Wilson, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Play - Liberation 
Best Musical - Schmigadoon!
Revival of A Play - Arthur Miller’s Death of A Salesman 
Revival of A Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball 
Lead Actor in a Musical - Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Lead Actress in a Musical - Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Leading Actor in A Play – Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman
Leading Actress in A Play – Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Best Book of A Musical - Schmigadoon!
Original Score – Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Scenic Design of A Play - Death of A Salesman
Scenic Design of A Musical - The Lost Boys
Costume Design of A Play – Fallen Angels
Costume Design of A Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Lighting Design of A Play - Death of A Salesman
Lighting Design of A Musical - The Lost Boys
Sound Design of A Play - Death of A Salesman
Sound Design of A Musical – Cats the Jellicle Ball
Direction of A Play - Death of A Salesman
Direction of A Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Choreography - Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Orchestrations -  Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Featured Actor in A Play – Christopher Abbot, Death of a Salesman
Featured Actress in A Play – Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman
Featured Actor in a Musical – Ali Louis Bourzgui – The Lost Boys
Featured Actress in A Musical – Ana Gasteyer – Schmigadoon!

I'm thinking of it like this:

LOCKS
Best Play - Liberation
Revival of a Play - Death of a Salesman
Featured Actor in a Play - Alden Ehrenreich
Featured Actress in a Play - Laurie Metcalf
Lighting Design of a Play - Death of a Salesman
Lead Actor in a Musical - Joshua Henry
Lead Actress in a Musical - Caissie Levy
Costume Design of a Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Scenic, Lighting, Sound Design of a Musical - The Lost Boys

ALMOST LOCKS
Lead Actress in a Play - Lesley Manville. But have heard pockets of support for Carrie Coon and Susannah Flood
Featured Actress in a Musical - Shoshana Bean. But slight chance for Ana Gasteyer or Nichelle Lewis.
Orchestrations - Schmigadoon!. But slight possibility for Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Director of a Play - Joe Mantello. But slight chance for Whitney White.
Sound Design of a Play - Oedipus. It seems like this should win but sound can always choose something wacky!

TOSS UPS
Best Musical - I hear pretty equal support for Schmigadoon and Lost Boys
Revival of a Musical - Cats: The Jellicle Ball vs. Ragtime. 
Lead Actor in a Play - John Lithgow vs. Nathan Lane.
Featured Actor in a Musical - Andre De Shield vs. Layton Williams vs. Ben Levi Ross vs. Ali Louis Bourzgui. I've heard support form voters for all four and I think this is totally up in the air.
Book of a Musical - Schmigadoon maybe? Strong challenges from Two Strangers and Titanique
Original Score - Schmigadoon! vs. The Lost Boys
Director of a Musical - Bill Rauch/Zhailon Levingston vs. Lear deBessonet. It's neck and neck.
Scenic Design of a Play - Death of a Salesman vs. Dog Day Afternoon vs. Fallen Angels
Costume Design of a Play - No obvious frontrunner. Fallen Angels or Joe Turner or Liberation


 

South Pacific

Name your one unanticipated sneak-in for a win.
 

Kelli O’Hara for Lead Actress in a play.

 

This seems like the rare year where there's a genuine two-horse both for Best Musical (Lost Boys and Schmigadoon) and Best Musical Revival (Cats and Ragtime).  Schimgadoon and Cats seem to be going in with the momentum, but both races really could go either way.  

I was looking back to see when was the last year that this was the case.  I think maybe 2012, when Best Musical was a fight to the finish between Once and Newsies.  Best Revival went to Porgy & Bess, but if memory serves, a lot of people thought it might go to Follies. 

Whew, there were a lot of tough ones this year to predict. We'll see how it goes...

Best Musical: Schmigadoon!
Best Play: Liberation
Revival of a Musical: Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Revival of a Play: Death of a Salesman

Lead Actor in a Musical: Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Lead Actress in a Musical: Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Supporting Actor in a Musical: Andre De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Supporting Actress in a Musical: Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys

Lead Actor in a Play: John Lithgow, Giant
Lead Actress in a Play: Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Featured Actor in a Play: Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Joe Turner's Come and Gone
Featured Actress in a Play: Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman

Director of a Musical: Zhailon Levingston & Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Director of a Play: Joe Mantello, Death of a Salesman
Choreography: Schmigadoon!
Original Score: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Book of a Musical: Schmigadoon!

Orchestrations: Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Scenic Design of a Musical: The Lost Boys
Costume Design of a Musical: Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Lighting Design of a Musical: The Lost Boys
Sound Design of a Musical: Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Scenic Design of a Play: Death of a Salesman
Costume Design of a Play: Fallen Angels
Lighting Design of a Play: Death of a Salesman
Sound Design of a Play: Oedipus

Edited 6/4 - changed Featured Actor in a Play and Scenic Design of a Play

Updated On: 6/4/26 at 05:00 PM

I didn't predict this but I think there could be a world where Schmigadoon wins Best Musical and nothing else, which would be unprecedented I believe? (I didn't actually check though...)

It’s happened for best play before, most recently with VANYA AND SONIA AND MASHA AND SPIKE in 2013. 


Can’t see that happening with LIBERATION, though. It takes one of either direction or costume design, as well as its top honor. 

Updated On: 6/3/26 at 10:45 PM

WldKingdomHM said: "I still can’t believe Sho is going to win for setting up a dinner table"

 

I'd love to see you attempt anything she is doing up on that stage.

TotallyEffed said: "WldKingdomHM said: "I still can’t believe Sho is going to win for setting up a dinner table"



I'd love to see you attempt anything she is doing up on that stage."

I would love to ! Let’s go to a playground I’ll slide down a slide weeeee. Can you push ?

Updated On: 6/4/26 at 03:34 AM