ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "When a well-known classic musical is revived, it's not a surprise for it to do $1M+ in its first 6-10 weeks, maybe a little longer. After that is when you need to start scrutinizing the numbers. Look at COMPANY, COLOR PURPLE, CAROUSEL, FIDDLER, SAIGON, Beanie's early weeks in FUNNY GIRL,etc. They all start strong and drop off when the audience is exhausted. So it's just a question of how much that will drop with Groban. Reviews & awards might help, and his fanbase nicely overlaps with Broadway's key demos, but it probably requires consistent sellouts at full-price + extensions to make actual money. COMET was solidly in the $900k-1.3M range for the length of Groban's run, which is of course encouraging since SWEENEY should be a hotter title than that.
We should not put any stock in the film driving significant interest. If a film couldreallydrive interest to full-price Broadway sales, thenALMOST FAMOUS, FROZEN, GROUNDHOG DAY, and BEETLEJUICE might still be running.
SWEENEY is oft-revived and oft-filmed. If people are interested in the property but don't love Groban or Ashford, you can choose to watch Lansbury & Hearn, LuPone & Hearn, Thompson & Terfel, Depp & Carter, or any number of YouTube videos."
I have taken note of the frenzy for the first few weeks, and the drop-off after that, and assumed that a lot of the audience is there is to see a major revival (with a full orchestra) of one of Sondheim’s most famous musicals. Josh Groban helps, as he brings in a fan base too. (I happen to be going to New York City in mid-March - the only time I can go for a while - so I had to move more than quickly than I expected and consider myself fortunate that I did.)
But I have never assumed Sweeney Todd will be the box office draw of The Music Man with Hugh Jackman or anything close to that even if the reviews are great. It’s a Sondheim revival, which means there will be intense interest for a while, which will likely fade. I would be very pleased to be wrong but decades of history says I’m probably not. I think the people who have bemoaned the high ticket prices will have little trouble getting good tickets in a few months, and maybe by April or May (or later if word of mouth is good).
Just wait, everyone. You’ll end up with better seats than me, and not on a Wednesday evening, and you’ll probably pay less.