Yeah, this return seems like such an uphill climb. Even if the ultimate goal is no longer to recoup on Broadway but to lay the groundwork for a non-Equity tour and licensing.
If it gets a Best Musical nomination, it's a fifth-choice at best, but now the season is looking thin beyond two frontrunners. Six and A Strange Loop are the only two locks for nominations; then you also have (in order of likelihood) MJ, Girl from the North Country, Mrs. Doubtfire, Paradise Square, Flying Over Sunset, Mr. Saturday Night, and Diana.