NYTimes Tony Award Predictions
NYTimes Tony Award Predictions
NYTimes Tony Award Predictions#1
Posted: 6/5/26 at 12:18pm
Paulson's annual Tony voter survey (175 of 850 voters surveyed, just shy of 20%) is in!
Schmigadoon has the edge with Lost Boys as a possible spoiler; revival remains too close to predict but Jellicle Ball may have a slight advantage.
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NYTimes Tony Award Predictions#2
Posted: 6/5/26 at 12:51pm
I'd love to see a JELLICLE BALL upset, but I feel like RAGTIME probably still has the upper hand. A lot of Tony voters are older and have conservative tastes. If that's the case, I hope they split the difference and give Best Director to Levingston/Rauch.
NYTimes Tony Award Predictions#3
Posted: 6/5/26 at 12:59pm
Regarding revival, as per usual with very tight races, the out of town voters will make a huge impact on the final results. Watching Jellicle, I couldn't help but think "are non-NYers going to appreciate this as much?" It is so specifically about NY ballroom culture that I could see out of town voters enjoying it, but not quite connecting to it quite as much as a lot of New York folks have. So, with that in mind, I feel like Ragtime ends up taking it by the smallest of margins.
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/20/13
NYTimes Tony Award Predictions#4
Posted: 6/5/26 at 1:23pm
I think the answer is no, NY ball culture is something barely anybody knows a thing about outside of NYC. The only good think Ryan Murphy has ever done is create Pose (first season only) to give many folks an education lesson on ball culture and how integral it was for so many black and brown folks. But, Pose wasn't popular though and anytime I ask people outside of the tri-state area about "ball culture", they have never known what I was talking about.
But “Ragtime,” directed by Lear deBessonet, has been a hot ticket for Lincoln Center Theater, which is producing the current revival, and that, of course, is a different kind of transformation. (The show’s original production was not financially successful.)
Exactly.
NYTimes Tony Award Predictions#5
Posted: 6/5/26 at 1:42pm
If I may quote Paulson from last year’s survey article:
“A wise producer once told me that a Tony Award for best revival is really a prize for most improvement — that voters tend to honor productions that make them think differently about a title, rather than productions that simply remind them that a great show is still great.”
JELLICLE BALL should have the advantage here.
NYTimes Tony Award Predictions#6
Posted: 6/5/26 at 1:50pm
This is why I think Cats The Jellicle Ball is still ahead for Revival. It's most improved! Most reinvented! Of course the straight masses and out of towners don't know about ballroom. But theater, like any good art form, teaches us by exposure. Im sure most Tony voters werent Mark Rothko experts but they still awarded Red. They also probably didnt have a robust knowledge of the details in the oslo accords, but they still went ahead and voted for Oslo. I watch musicals and plays all the time about characters and communities who are vastly different from me, but still greatly enjoy them. Isnt that the point of theater? If you have no clue what ball culture is, The Jellicle Ball gives you an outrageously fun introduction. You still may not be an expert on it, and thats ok, thats not the point. But doesnt this revival fall in line with other winners who were reinvented via a stellar concept like Sunset Blvd, Company, Oklahoma? I cant picture it winning director and choreography and then losing revival
NYTimes Tony Award Predictions#7
Posted: 6/5/26 at 1:54pm
Sutton Ross said: "I think the answer is no, NY ball culture is something barely anybody knows a thing about outside of NYC. The only good think Ryan Murphy has ever done is create Pose(first season only) to give many folks an education lesson on ball culture and how integral it was for so many black and brown folks. But, Pose wasn't popular though and anytime I ask people outside of the tri-state area about "ball culture", they have never known what I was talking about."
I would actually argue ballroom culture is not just specifically happening in NYC, don't get me wrong it was the birthplace of the scene but there are many active ballroom scenes thriving in other major US cities: Detroit, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, New Orleans Atlanta etc.
I think the reason why RAGTIME has gotten more love this season is because a lot of the awards it ended up winning Jellicle Ball wasn't eligible for to begin with, and after reading that Paulson quote EDSOSLO858 brilliantly brought up, I do agree Jellicle Ball should still has the upper hand I think they most likely will end up taking it besides as MayAudraBlessYou2 pointed out it certainly falls in line with past winners like Sunset Blvd. Company and Rodgers & Hammerstein's "Oklahoma that f***s"
NYTimes Tony Award Predictions#8
Posted: 6/5/26 at 1:59pm
I really don't understand why people keep parroting back the Urban Legend that "the road voters have a huge say in what shows are going to win". This is simply (and demonstrably) false -- the "road voters" make up approx 15% of the Tony voters (and many of those people wear multiple hats -- like producing shows on their own -- so that dilutes the "road voter" constituency even further).
NYTimes Tony Award Predictions#9
Posted: 6/5/26 at 2:00pm
Have the out-of-town voters ever made the difference? This always gets discussed as a factor but never seems to matter. Has there been a recent Tony winner that can be explained by out-of-town voters?
It’s something to mention in advertising, but how many people decide to attend a touring musical because it won Best Revival?
Regardless of the outcome, I doubt Cats: The Jellice Ball would tour especially well outside of a few major cities. Ragtime, I suspect, would do reasonably well everywhere. (I prefer the former revival, but I suspect the Cats revival would struggle in the same way the Oklahoma revival did.)
Paulson is leaving himself an out regarding Death of a Salesman, which is interesting. It looks like voters will honor Giant by awarding John Lithgow. I still wonder if Lane has a chance.
NYTimes Tony Award Predictions#10
Posted: 6/5/26 at 2:04pm
bear882 said: "Have the out-of-town voters ever made the difference? This always gets discussed as a factor but never seems to matter. Has there been a recent Tony winner that can be explained by out-of-town voters?"
Some like to cite The Outsiders here but I don't really see how it can be reasonably argued that it was any more appealing to out-of-town or touring voters than Hell's Kitchen.
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/20/13
NYTimes Tony Award Predictions#11
Posted: 6/5/26 at 2:07pm
I would actually argue ballroom culture is not just specifically happening in NYC, don't get me wrong it was the birthplace of the scene but there are many active ballroom scenes thriving in other major US cities: Detroit, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, New Orleans Atlanta etc.
And that's fine, you have vigorously defended Cats for months now and quoting me many times. But the average tourist knows nothing about an underground ball culture nor do they care. Again, Cats isn't making money and Ragtime is. Ragtime doesn't need this award, it's already closing after a wildly successful run. Cats needs this award to literally not close by end of Summer. Look at the numbers, since that's all that matters.
Ragtime meets the sociopolitical moment in a way that no other show does this season, and with 60 people onstage and in the pit combined, it is the magic of Broadway at its best.
NYTimes Tony Award Predictions#12
Posted: 6/5/26 at 2:12pm
Sutton Ross said: "
Ragtimemeets the sociopolitical moment in a way that no other show does this season, and with 60 people onstage and in the pit combined, it is the magic of Broadway at its best."
It meets the sociopolitical moment better than the production built around some of the most persecuted and attacked minority groups in the country (not only just right now but for decades) front and center and embracing their stories and specific culture?
Ragtime is good. But it is political comfort food.
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/20/13
NYTimes Tony Award Predictions#13
Posted: 6/5/26 at 2:25pm
Yes, and that's simply my opinion. Nothing more.
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