NYTimes Tony Award Predictions

I'd love to see a JELLICLE BALL upset, but I feel like RAGTIME probably still has the upper hand. A lot of Tony voters are older and have conservative tastes. If that's the case, I hope they split the difference and give Best Director to Levingston/Rauch.

I think the answer is no, NY ball culture is something barely anybody knows a thing about outside of NYC. The only good think Ryan Murphy has ever done is create Pose (first season only) to give many folks an education lesson on ball culture and how integral it was for so many black and brown folks. But, Pose wasn't popular though and anytime I ask people outside of the tri-state area about "ball culture", they have never known what I was talking about.

But “Ragtime,” directed by Lear deBessonet, has been a hot ticket for Lincoln Center Theater, which is producing the current revival, and that, of course, is a different kind of transformation. (The show’s original production was not financially successful.)

Exactly. 

This is why I think Cats The Jellicle Ball is still ahead for Revival. It's most improved! Most reinvented! Of course the straight masses and out of towners don't know about ballroom. But theater, like any good art form, teaches us by exposure. Im sure most Tony voters werent Mark Rothko experts but they still awarded Red. They also probably didnt have a robust knowledge of the details in the oslo accords, but they still went ahead and voted for Oslo. I watch musicals and plays all the time about characters and communities who are vastly different from me, but still greatly enjoy them. Isnt that the point of theater? If you have no clue what ball culture is, The Jellicle Ball gives you an outrageously fun introduction. You still may not be an expert on it, and thats ok, thats not the point. But doesnt this revival fall in line with other winners who were reinvented via a stellar concept like Sunset Blvd, Company, Oklahoma? I cant picture it winning director and choreography and then losing revival

I really don't understand why people keep parroting back the Urban Legend that "the road voters have a huge say in what shows are going to win".  This is simply (and demonstrably) false -- the "road voters" make up approx 15% of the Tony voters (and many of those people wear multiple hats -- like producing shows on their own -- so that dilutes the "road voter" constituency even further).

 

bear882 said: "Have the out-of-town voters ever made the difference? This always gets discussed as a factor but never seems to matter. Has there been a recent Tony winner that can be explained by out-of-town voters?"

Some like to cite The Outsiders here but I don't really see how it can be reasonably argued that it was any more appealing to out-of-town or touring voters than Hell's Kitchen. 

Sutton Ross said: "
Ragtimemeets the sociopolitical moment in a way that no other show does this season, and with 60 people onstage and in the pit combined, it is the magic of Broadway at its best."

It meets the sociopolitical moment better than the production built around some of the most persecuted and attacked minority groups in the country (not only just right now but for decades) front and center and embracing their stories and specific culture?  

Ragtime is good. But it is political comfort food. 

Updated On: 6/5/26 at 02:12 PM

Ragtime will win for Best Musical Revival. It’s such a wonderful and timely production. I think people are also underestimating the number of American Theater Wing voters too.

AC126748 said: "I'd love to see a JELLICLE BALL upset, but I feel like RAGTIME probably still has the upper hand. A lot of Tony voters are older and have conservative tastes. If that's the case, I hope they split the difference and give Best Director to Levingston/Rauch."

This would be foolish.  You don't have this new bold CATS without these directors - and particularly Rauch coming up with the concept, years ago ,and making it happen via PAC.  It deserves both director and revival.  Splitting them makes the Tonys quite questionable - and debessonet's direction is very weak if non-existent.  And the original production wasn't a non-profit that Lincoln Center is.  So of course it didn't run as long.  It's an expensive show.

This is a strange season, and except for new plays, a disappointing season.  All four best play nominees are excellent works.  Acting categories for plays also feature many excellent performances, as do the musical acting categories. But the musical season has been dismal except for revival where Ragtime and Cats  are, for different reasons,  equally deserving. Not sure this year's Tony broadcast will be that interesting. 

Fordham2015 said: "Splitting the difference in revival wouldn't surprise me. It's reminiscent of 2006 when John Doyle won director for Sweeney but Pajama Game won revival"

and remind us, how did both productions do after the Tony awards?

I’ll concede that JELLICLE BALL doesn’t really play well with the cauliflower crowd - I’ve been to enough of the matinees to see people walk out either when Tugger has his big reveal (IYKYK) or at intermission. (Though I did see one girl leave once right after the opening number - either that or she really rocked the plumbing at the Broadhurst).

Either way, the show got their money and the crowd is better during Act II because the fuddy-duddies who didn’t do their homework have left the building.

I know I sound very anti-RAGTIME, but it simply boils down to the fact that there is nothing novel about it. It’s well sung, but it’s diorama-like in its staging, which gets old real quick. 

Ptero2 said: "Both shows are re-inventing the material - they finally found out how to make Ragtime profitable and how to make Cats lose money!"

Ragtime is hardly re-inventing the material.  It's cast has help reinvent its finances for Lincoln Center.