As always with any adaptation of popular IP, people must CARE about this version of it, not merely know about it. Everyone knows Groundhog Day and Charlie in the Chocolate Factory and Tootsie and King Kong and Jane Eyre and Tale of Two Cities and Little Women. Those flopped on Broadway.
The good news is Great Gatsby is a very promotable property, and it promises a glamorous & entertaining evening IF people go for it. But you have to get them to care, and the musical must stand separately from the book and the films and the immersive Gatsbys. This show could do big business on the road, with licensing, and internationally, but some of that will depend on how it does in NYC.
This show can succeed, but it's as risky as any other big musical in this climate.