The Buyer Got Smarter Than the Box Office

Did we? 

Here’s what I think is actually happening: The buyer didn’t get flaky. The buyer got informed. They learned to read Broadway’s own pricing and risk better than we sometimes read them, and waiting became the rational response to a system we built. We’re all trying to get hip to the new buying patterns. The fastest way in is to stop asking why they won’t commit early and start asking what early commitment is actually competing against.

https://thenextaudience.substack.com/p/the-buyer-got-smarter-than-the-box?r%3D57bf3n%26utm_medium%3Dios=&triedRedirect=true

I think some of us did, but not enough people stalk this board, reddit, etc. to know that... 

I think it's a combination of informed buying habits, but also a level of caring. If the buyer doesn't care about the property there's no incentive to buy early –– or at all.

It takes more to get people to care nowadays, and for musicals and non-star/non-IP plays it has always been a tough proposition to say "here's 2 demo songs and a synopsis! Nobody super famous is in it. Want to risk $75+++ on something you might not like?"

The people who traditionally bought early were the New York-based frequent theatergoer (often older, white, middle-to-upper class). That group has somewhat eroded AND is being more discerning.

This has been a very interesting and insightful series of articles by Katharine Quinn.

Updated On: 6/5/26 at 12:18 PM

bear882 said: "What would be the sort of musical that might suffer in this sort of environment? How aboutDeath Becomes Her?I didn’t see it but the musical seems reasonably easy to understand with lots of cool special effects and comedy. I never quite understood why the musical fell off a cliff after January. My explanation? Everyone who wanted to see it had done do and there were no international tourists to make up the difference. This could be wrong, but the alternative explanations don’t seem adequate.”

Great commentary overall, but I truly think DEATH BECOMES HER dove off a cliff after January because of the production’s failure to revitalize the show with new and/or exciting cast changes. DBH became a cult hit partly due to its social media virality, so there was always someone new discovering the show. However, when 3/4 of your principals remain the same because they can’t find replacements and your one replacement is a shrug, the show doesn’t grow and once again become an event. Even people I know who have seen it many times have basically tapped out because it’s the same show and they can only muster so much excitement when they can more or less calculate each performer’s comedic beats.

It kind of makes me wish that they did what the recent Into The Woods did with the Witch and split the performances between Patina Miller (who had other work commitments) and Montego Glover. Maybe they can’t get a star who meets the demand for 8 shows/week, but maybe for 4 or 5? (To quote the Elaine Stritch Tonys joke - “Give ‘em five and charge ‘em more”).

I agree completely with the writer's assessment that audiences are now playing the waiting game regarding tickets for anything but a sure-fire sellout. Historically, I've rarely bought tickets at the last minute (unless I was simply filling a slot and not particularly concerned about the show); for anything I'd made up my mind to see, I always bought well in advance. Not anymore. For our last trip in May, I only bought three out of eight shows in advance because I knew the seat selection was going to improve and the prices were going to drop somewhere between one week prior and the day of the performance. This strategy got me better seats while saving hundreds of dollars.

Like the writer said, the audience has gotten wise.

Updated On: 6/9/26 at 01:08 PM

Lot666 said: "I agree completely with the writer's assessment that audiences are now playing the waiting game regarding tickets for anything but a sure-fire sellout. Historically, I've rarely bought tickets at the last minute (unless I was simply filling a slot and not particularly concerned about the show); for anything I'd made up my mind to see, I always bought well in advance. Not anymore. For our last trip in May, I only bought three out of eight shows in advance because I knew the seat selection was going to improve and the prices were going to drop somewhere between one week prior and the day of the performance. This strategy got me better seats while saving hundreds of dollars.

Like the writer said, the audience has gotten wise."

I don't know, I've been looking at same-day seating charts for some of the current titles, and even 1-3 hours before curtain, there's still plenty of inventory available at all different price points. 

I think today's audiences aren't playing the waiting game, simply just saying no to the Theatre District (some have since the pandemic) for a long while and opting for other, much cheaper entertainment options. They're being wise, yes, but at Broadway's expense.

Updated On: 6/9/26 at 10:54 PM

I've become a huge proponent of using A View From My Seat. It's helped me figure out what the cheapest seat is I can get in a specific theatre without sacrificing the viewing experience. This has allowed me to still buy tickets ahead of time and not get stuck spending my morning doing rush or TKTS. 

Also, to that end, I compared what I paid for Ragtime to the TKTS booth for a Saturday matinee and my ticket was $10 cheaper purchased directly from the show. 

So. It's all a game and I'm glad folks are learning how to play it. 

 

I think it was the highest grossing season, easily explained by higher prices,  but I believe attendance was down. 

quizking101 said: "Up In One said: "I think it was the highest grossing season, easily explained by higher prices,but I believe attendance was down."

Correct. It always annoys me when they announce that it’s the highest grossing season every year because it’s really just showing they’re a$s. Like, yeah, it is because producers have raised prices and knocked out potential audiences, making theatre an elitist expense again.

The fact we have to gamify the system at all to get a decent seat at a decent price is really quite a sad state of affairs. Love him or hate him, at least Scott Rudin made the savvy producing move of sacrificing profit in previews for DEATH OF A SALESMAN through very low prices, let the work speak for itself, and now it’s the toast of Broadway."

And those highest grosses are largely attributable to the long-run war horses and limited engagement star attractions that are here and gone.  As others have pointed out in other streams, that cannot be healthy for Broadway in the long-term.

I have seen and generally enjoyed more than my share both of those categories, but I would rather a lot more of those dollars be spent on a wider number of new plays and musicals.  As many have posted in the past, prices have gotten so high that a lot of ticket buyers only want a sure thing.

The conflict caused by the constantly rising ticket prices and the availability of so much readily accessible quality programs via the ever-increasing number of streaming services is only going to make matters worse.  

The people who talk about how creative they are in finding last minute deals are understanding every theatre layout in the city (so they can get the absolute best seat for the buck) are not representative of the occasional theatregoers who used to go 5 - 8 times a year and now go maybe 1 or 2 times, those visits planned well in advance.  I don't know for sure what it will take to get them to come more frequently, but I have to believe that sizably lower ticket prices (which is not going to happen) would only be one factor. (because everything else is also more expensive than ever -- transportation, dinner, baby sitter, etc. -- they still have to spend a lot). 

A second factor, which no one really has control on is presenting musicals that wide groups of people actually want to see.  Too many of the recent musicals have been niche and will never attract a wide audience or they are unoriginal movie-clones with rotten scores.  Things that I have read over the years is that nothing helps overall business more than a monster hit new musical.  There was a time when you would have a couple a season.  I don't think we have had a monster hit since Hamilton.  That of course is up to the gods.

I really wonder whether we are in the midst of a real paradigm shift and don't realize it yet.  

An unpopular thought: Tickets to Broadway shows, with a few exceptions, aren’t too expensive. Maybe I feel that way because I don’t remember tickets prices during my initial trips to New York City in the early 1990s. But then I didn’t go for more than two decades and when I returned in 2016, Hamilton was the hottest show in town and tickets in the second-to-last row in the house cost about $500 ($1,500 for a party of three). This was so much more than I had ever paid for any entertainment that I tormented myself, listened to the cast album (which I almost always avoid), and had long talks with my wife before deciding that seeing the original Broadcast cast would be a special family experience that we shouldn’t miss. I was relieved that everyone loved the show.

But I never wanted to spend that much again and I haven’t, even though I have gotten more picky about where I want to sit. I can count on one hand the number of times I have spent more than $200 on a show: Merrily We Roll Along, Just in Time during one of Jonathan Groff’s last weeks, Evita tickets for next April (just above $200). I haven’t gone above $300 or really come close.

This isn’t because I have been especially savvy. I am a dumb tourist who buys too often in advance on Telecharge, though I do search for discounts and ‘cheaper’ seats. I have spent between $150 to $180 more than I should have. Our trip in March was the first time since the 1990s that I left several slots open and just bought when we were in NYC. This made my wife happy, as she was always nostalgic for the days of grabbing show tickets that day and not planning everything ahead. But it turns out that’s smarter now.

Of the 8 shows we saw, I was happy with my advance purchases several times, but mostly because of seat quality (Giant, Death of a Salesman, Ragtime, Cats: The Jellicle Ball), not price. Yes, the price of Death of a Salesman tickets has skyrocketed since I saw it, but I’m not in New York City now.

With rush, the lottery, TodayTix, and the Theatr app, you are usually - emphasis on usually - better off waiting. I know this at home and was an early adopter to TodayTix’s rush system (online and in-person). I am familiar with various discounts offered for good seats.

Considering inflation over the past decade, I cannot honestly say that prices have gone up. Restaurants? Yes. Hotels? Yes, though we have done OK. 

I am very sympathetic to the complaint that people are priced out of Broadway. And you won’t catch me in a premium seat unless the theater made a mistake. And I will skip the celebrity plays that cost more than Hamilton did a decade ago. I am concerned about the struggles of new musicals, because theater cannot survive on revivals and star power alone.

I am aware that there haven’t been as many must-see, impossible-to-get-tickets musicals in this decade. If that changes, I will have to adapt. I am also not the sort of person who sees a show multiple times, not on Broadway and only rarely at home.

I have been struck by what seem to me absurd prices for popular music acts. I contemplated getting tickets for my wife to a performer she likes, then didn’t get far because the prices felt ridiculous for what I knew were bad seats. I am seeing John Fogerty in concert in a couple of months and spending about as much as I would to see a Broadway show - from a lot further away. But I will get to see Red Rocks.

Updated On: 6/16/26 at 05:07 AM