Tony Best Musical Indicators

[bdn223]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 11:23am

I know all of you are going to hate me for starting another Tony thread, but I did not want this thought to get lost in one of the already huge Tony Award threads.

After last night's Drama Desk Awards I wanted to bring up indicators of what wins Best Musical based on other awards categories. Last year when Billy Porter took home Best Actor it was an indicator of Kinky Boots taking Best Musical. This year though many critics are saying that if Jessie Mueller takes Best Actress, Beautiful will take Best Musical. I don't think this is so, I do think at this point Ms. Mueller is almost a lock for Best Actress, with the O'Hara camp beginning to campaigning for next year when she is Anna in The King and I.
I think the best musical indicators are as follows:
Beautiful will win if either either Anika Larson or Douglas McGrath win for Best Featured Actress and Best Book. I honestly don't see Beautiful winning at the end of the night if it only has 1 other statuette. It is not going to win best orchestrations which will go to Robert Brown with Jonathan Tunick (AGGTLM) being a possible spoiler. I don't see it winning best sound design which will likely go to Tim O'Heir, as part of the likly Hedwig sweep, with Peter Hylenski of After Midnight being a possible spoiler. Ms Larson may not be in the toughest of categories, but with no clear winner considering that Marin Mazzie isn't nominated for the Tony and Ms. Larson and Ms. Worsham tied at the Drama Desk Awards.

For A Gentleman's Guide to win it early indicators will be it it wins is if it does win Score or orchestrations over Bridges I think Best Musical is also a lock. Also if it wins in any of the Acting categories I see it winning Best Musical. Jefferson Mays and Neil Patrick Harris both have 2 awards going into the Tony Awards, having tied at the Drama Desk Awards, if they tie again at the Tony's or Mays somehow manages to triumph over the 4 time Tony host A Gentleman's Guide's name will be called for Best Musical. Same goes for Ms. Worsham.


I believe Best Actor is a better indicator of Best Musical over Best Actress as Ms. Mueller is the only nominee to win in any of the pre-Tony awards, and at this point she seems like the person to beat, as opposed to Mays who is a dark horse against the powerhouse that is Neil Patrick Harris. If Audra was in the the musical category I would agree that if Ms. Mueller's win would be an indicator of Best Musical. The other major category is Best Book where the two shows are also pitted against each other.

[jacobsnchz14]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 11:34am

I agree with you on some account regarding Gentleman's Guide. However, I don't necessarily think winning Best Actor at Drama Desks is an indicator. Danny Burstein won for FOLLIES which did not end up with a Best (Revival) Musical Tony, Norbert Leo Butz won for CATCH ME... and again did not win Best Musical, however in the past few years the only person to win a Best Actor at Drama Desks AND have their production win the Tony for Best Revival/Musical was Billy Porter for KINKY BOOTS and Douglas Hodge for LA CAGE.

Updated On: 6/2/14 at 11:34 AM

[Kad]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 12:08pm

Beautiful winning for Book is doubtful. So doubtful. Even its supporters acknowledge that its weak point.

I think a likely scenario is that Book, Score, and Musical will be split amongst Gentleman's Guide, Bridges, and Beautiful, respectively. The alternative is Gentleman's Guide taking Musical.

The nature of the season pretty much eliminates anything actually "sweeping."

I believe Hedwig will, and SHOULD, receive the plurality of the awards.

[dreaming]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 12:12pm

Kad-I think Hedwig may well take each award it is nominated for. (I think both Harris and Hall will win. Both deserve it-Hall is truly giving a star making performance. She's just so subtle and nuanced-and you get to watch her character develop. It's a great acting performance married to a set of pipes that are unbelievable.)

I still think Gentleman's Guide will win musical. I think it will take book and Bridges will take score. Jessie Mueller will win best actress (this could be compared to 2004, when Avenue Q won musical and Wicked took the best actress prize).

Has any musical that failed to take home the big prize at any major pre-Tony ever won best musical????

[Kad]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 12:15pm

I can see Hedwig losing out on Scenic and Costume design. The awards tend to go to the "bigger" shows - more bang for the buck. That said, I would love for it to win in both categories - its set is far more inventive than any of the other nominees.

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 12:16pm

I think Bridges will wind up winning score, but the fact that it split music and lyrics with Gentleman's Guide last night makes me wonder if there would be a tie at the Tonys.

[dreaming]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 12:17pm

Hedwig's costumes are soooo good. They use them really well. And it should win lighting design for how they use the lighting.

I say it takes at least 5 awards. (Revival, director, leading actor, featured actress, lighting design...with costumes being a real possibility.)

[ShakinBaconGirl]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 12:21pm

I think it's pretty obvious that Gentleman's Guide is going to win.

[Musicaldudepeter]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 12:33pm

If Kelli wins best actress next year for King & I, it will totally be a make-up award for this year. If Jessie wasn't there this year, this would be all Kelli's, undoubtedly.

[ShakinBaconGirl]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 12:37pm

I wouldn't count my chickens too fast on Kelli winning next year. You never know who might just pop up.

[StickIt]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 12:38pm

I know there's a .000001% chance of it happening, but I'd love Kelli and Jessie to tie. Such different performances but so equally deserving.

[broadfan327]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 12:42pm

I think Beautiful's major award will be Best Actress. The book is not strong enough IMO to win, and it is not eligible for score. The major draw to Beautiful is Jessie's performance. I think we will know if Gentlemen is going to win Best Musical early if it wins for best scenic design, like Once won last year.

[dreaming]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 12:50pm

bradofan-not necessarily on the smaller awards. Hedwig is a big contender in the technical categories, too. (Bullets is to an extent for the scenic design.) I think Hedwig will walk away with the most awards, then Gentleman's Guide.

I think you hit the nail on the head with Jessie being the draw (as well as Carole King's name being attached). I think Anika Larsen would have had a better shot any other year but feel it's between Lena Hall and Lauren Worsham. I think Hall has the edge, particularly as her show is a huge hit (I also just think her performance is just plain better-but that is my opinion).

[little_sally]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 12:55pm

The award I'm most intrigued by is Best Featured Actress in a Musical. I didn't think Lauren Worsham had a chance (I personally would've nominated Lisa O'Hare instead) but after the DDs, I think it is between her or Anika Larson.

[Kad]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 12:58pm

Well, Lena Hall wasn't even nominated for the Drama Desk.

[dreaming]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 12:59pm

If Worsham wins it's as an award to the ensemble of the show. (I'd rather Larsen win than her, frankly. The outstanding featured actress for me in Gentleman's Guide was Jane Carr-that would have been my nomination from there.) But, I think Lena Hall may shock everyone and take it.

Kad-I noticed that, but we have had instances where people weren't nominated and then won. (Both Isherwood and Brantley think she's got it, for what that's worth.) Patina Miller wasn't nominated last year...and wait...she WON the Tony-so there you go. Updated On: 6/2/14 at 12:59 PM

[Kad]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 1:11pm

I'm aware- I was saying that, as an indicator for that cateogry, the Drama Desk isn't particularly strong.

The Drama Desks often (egregiously) overlook performers.

[Musicaldudepeter]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 1:15pm

I don't think there's any way Kelli will get the Tony for a closed show. When is the last time that's happened? Tony voters simply aren't that sentimental. The Jessie factor is too strong - hot, young flavor of the month, in a hit show. What's not to vote for

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 1:26pm

Last year when Billy Porter took home Best Actor it was an indicator of Kinky Boots taking Best Musical.

I really don't believe in "indicators" any more than I do in "locks". There have been numerous seasons where the acting awards had nothing to do with Best Musical winner.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 1:28pm

"Has any musical that failed to take home the big prize at any major pre-Tony ever won best musical????"

Wicked won the Outer Critics, the Drama League, the Drama Desk, and lost the Tony to Avenue Q... Updated On: 2/25/15 at 01:28 PM

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 1:30pm

BRIDGES only closed 2 weeks ago, everyone saw it who should. Kelli should win, but it's gonna be close.

[haterobics]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 1:34pm

"with the O'Hara camp beginning to campaigning for next year when she is Anna in The King and I."

What is the background of her "camp" already campaigning for next year?! Who is her closest competition among the other performers no one has seen yet?!

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 1:41pm

"I don't think there's any way Kelli will get the Tony for a closed show. When is the last time that's happened?"

Tracy Letts winning last year (for a performance in a revival he won over Tom Hanks, Nathan Lane and David Hyde Pierce, each nominated for new plays that were still running; two of which were nominated for best play, and one of which won).

Updated On: 6/2/14 at 01:41 PM

[Musicaldudepeter]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 1:45pm

^ Interesting! Didn't know Who's Afraid... was closed!

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 6/2/14 at 1:46pm

""I don't think there's any way Kelli will get the Tony for a closed show. When is the last time that's happened?"

Tracy Letts winning last year (over Tom Hanks and Nathan Lane for shows that were still running)."

Straight plays are a different story, we're talking MUSICALS. I think the last time that happened was Andrea Martin winning Best Featured Actress in 1993 for My Favorite Year.