#126
Posted: 5/12/26 at 1:44pm
It's a brilliant show and it will absolutely win in more than one category.
Very Early 2026 Tony Winner Predictions — Page 6
#127
Posted: 5/12/26 at 1:51pm
Gold Derby is very good at the Oscars and Emmys, but their Tony odds have always felt much more vibes-based to me. Doesn't mean they're inaccurate, but I put much less stock there.
#128
Posted: 5/12/26 at 1:58pm
ChiDoc said: "Gold Derby is very good at the Oscars and Emmys, but their Tony odds have always felt much more vibes-based to me. Doesn't mean they're inaccurate, but I put much less stock there."
Actually I think they’re very good at Tony’s too…it’s all industry-backed just like the Oscars and Emmys
#129
Posted: 5/12/26 at 2:21pm
malcs98 said: "Actually I think they’re very good at Tony’s too…it’s all industry-backed just like the Oscars and Emmys"
Perhaps I more mean that the "Expert" prognosticators are less accurate. But keep in mind, all of this is anecdotal more than statistics-based. So I could be completely wrong!
#130
Posted: 5/12/26 at 2:49pm
EDSOSLO858 said: "Best play will not be the only category that LIBERATION wins. It could also very well win costume design, and/or even pull off a direction shocker over Mantello."
I know it’s unlikely but I would be perfectly happy if Liberation swept and took home every awards it’s up for. I think it’s worthy of all of those wins.
#131
Posted: 5/12/26 at 3:31pm
I also think LIBERATION takes more than Play, I'm more towards Flood than White, but Manville seems too strong.
And as the days goes by, I think Abbott has a bigger chance than most give credit.
#132
Posted: 5/13/26 at 3:33pm
Chess was robbed of a nomination for Best Revival
Lea Michele was robbed of a nomination for Best Actress
This should have been a race between Ragtime vs Chess for Best Revival. Now Ragtime is the only suitable option left.
Let’s hope Lost Boys wins Best Musical. Schmigadoon is another good one.
#133
Posted: 5/13/26 at 3:38pm
theatrekid3302 said: "Chess was robbed of a nomination for Best Revival
Lea Michele was robbed of a nomination for Best Actress
This should have been a race between Ragtime vs Chess for Best Revival. Now Ragtime is the only suitable option left.
Let’s hope Lost Boys wins Best Musical. Schmigadoon is another good one."
STFU .... it's waaaay past your nap time.
#134
Posted: 5/17/26 at 8:23am
Helen Shaw's Tonys 2026 Predictions: Who Will Win? And Who Should?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/17/theater/tonys-2026-predictions.html?unlocked_article_code=1.jFA.JAP_.e1hEKdBnCcxq&smid=nytcore-android-share
#135
Posted: 5/17/26 at 9:54am
MezzA101 said: "Helen Shaw's Tonys 2026 Predictions: Who Will Win? And Who Should?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/17/theater/tonys-2026-predictions.html?unlocked_article_code=1.jFA.JAP_.e1hEKdBnCcxq&smid=nytcore-android-share"
Some of these are questionable. Liberation will win best play. Arden isn’t winning director. Also, surprised by the lack of cats love.
#136
Posted: 5/17/26 at 3:10pm
Shaw likes Cats: The Jellice Ball just fine, and thought it deserved to win in multiple major categories. She just didn’t predict it would win.
#137
Posted: 5/17/26 at 3:28pm
bear882 said: "Shaw likesCats: The Jellice Balljust fine, and thought it deserved to win in multiple major categories. She just didn’t predict it would win."
I still believe it should and will win…
#138
Posted: 5/18/26 at 1:28pm
Although I will die on the hill of "the Drama Desks/League/OCC/etc awards should not be relied on as predictors of the Tonys," I do think the fact that Two Strangers is picking up absolutely nothing is not a great sign.
"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."
Updated On: 5/18/26 at 01:28 PM
#139
Posted: 5/18/26 at 2:18pm
Two strangers is a British musical that wasn’t even nominated for any Olivier’s. The only reason it’s nominated for Tony’s is a lack of competition and it’s still running, let’s be honest. It would be totally ignored in a normal year.
#140
Posted: 5/18/26 at 2:37pm
In my latest piece for Gold Derby, I dig into how Ragtime could become the first musical revival to win both lead acting Tonys in 28 years.
https://www.goldderby.com/theater/2026/ragtime-broadway-musical-revival-record/
Updated On: 5/18/26 at 02:37 PM
#141
Posted: 5/18/26 at 4:07pm
MezzA101 said: "Helen Shaw's Tonys 2026 Predictions: Who Will Win? And Who Should?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/17/theater/tonys-2026-predictions.html?unlocked_article_code=1.jFA.JAP_.e1hEKdBnCcxq&smid=nytcore-android-share"
I mean....
#142
Posted: 5/18/26 at 4:16pm
Schmigadoon has to be feeling really good about its chances at the Tonys. Should the momentum keep up at this rate, I can see it winning score, book, and the big prize altogether - more ahead of the pack than maybe any of us thought.
Do we think still being a limited run, no cast album announcement, and no tour announcement is hurting its chances going into the Tonys?
#143
Posted: 5/18/26 at 10:30pm
skyboy said: "Schmigadoon has to be feeling really good about its chances at the Tonys. Should the momentum keep up at this rate, I can see it winning score, book, and the big prize altogether - more ahead of the pack than maybe any of us thought.
Do we think still being a limited run, no cast album announcement, and no tour announcement is hurting its chances going into the Tonys?
"
Agree,I feel Schmigadoon will take Best Musical, Book and most likely score and shut out 2 Strangers but that's the only TONY I see them possibly getting.
"Anything you do, let it it come from you--then it will be new."
Sunday in the Park with George
#144
Posted: 5/18/26 at 11:47pm
Has ''The Lost Boys'' set a record for the most producers? At a cursory glance, I counted more than 80 names/entities. I wonder how many Tony voters are among them. In a close Tony race, could this be a factor? Here's the list of its producers:
Produced by James Carpinello, Marcus Chait, Patrick Wilson, James L. Nederlander, At Rise Creative, Ayesha & Stephen Curry, Lauren Shuler Donner, Neil Patrick Harris, Douglas Sills, Slash, Kiefer Sutherland, Steve Young, Amy & Grady Burnett, Allison Bloom & Gabriel Mann, Hunter Arnold / Broadway Strategic Return Fund, Eastern Standard Time, DJD Productions / ZK Productions, Jay Marcus / Carl Moellenberg, Stark Sands, Jordan Silver / Kerri Mandelbaum, James Bolosh & Hillary Wyatt, Decca Broadway / Federal Films, Creative Partners Productions, Independent Presenters Network, The John Gore Organization, Stewart F. Lane / Bonnie Comley / Leah Lane, Greg & Lisa Love, MacPac Entertainment, Murray Entertainment, Inc., Oddly Specific Productions, The Shubert Organization, Toho Co. Ltd., WE R Broadway Artists Alliance, Stage Entertainment, Carrie & Joe Staley, W Thompson Family, Drew Elhamalawy / Kirsten & David Abdo, Brandon Blaser / Davis-Carroll, Crossroads Live / Marla McNally Phillips, Anthony & Maria Diaco / D'Angora Padgett Productions, Nancy Glass / Handler-Pawliuk Family, Grove Entertainment / KLIVE Entertainment, Howard-DePhillips / Jamie Stone O'Brien, Pam Hurst-Della Pietra & Stephen Della Pietra / Polly & Ed Han, Willette Klausner / Waikit Lau, Knudsen-Weissberger Productions / April Dovey Productions, Nabatoff-Caise / Sean Nyberg, Andy Raab / Ratelle-Eliason, Orfeh / Braedon Young, David & Megan Scacco / Jason & Sarah Sobel, Jason Taylor / Michael Graf, An 11:11 Experience and Warner Bros. Theatre Ventures
Updated On: 5/18/26 at 11:47 PM
#145
Posted: 5/19/26 at 8:37am
They need $$. It's box office is not meeting weekly break even.
#146
Posted: 5/19/26 at 4:31pm
In my latest piece for Gold Derby, I dig into how Nathan Lane has potential this year to become third male actor in history to win four Tony Awards.
https://www.goldderby.com/theater/2026/nathan-lane-death-of-a-salesman-tony-record/
#147
Posted: 5/19/26 at 4:36pm
The link doesn't work- it looks like http is included twice. The link embedder automatically includes http so you don't need to include it in the url when you paste it in.
"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."
Updated On: 5/19/26 at 04:36 PM
#148
Posted: 5/20/26 at 1:50pm
Two Tony voters reveal their votes to Vulture:
https://www.vulture.com/article/tony-awards-voters-2026-anonymous-ballots.html
(The fact that both of them, let alone anyone, is voting for Nichelle Lewis is horrifying.)
Updated On: 5/20/26 at 01:50 PM
#149
Posted: 5/20/26 at 3:25pm
The fact that she even got a nomination over Nina White is horrifying
#150
Posted: 5/21/26 at 3:49pm
2026 Tony Awards Winner Predictions in Every Category
https://variety.com/lists/tonys-awards-winner-predictions-2026
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