Posted: 3/8/23 at 5:02pm
I'd be surprised...it's not a big role.
JSquared2 said: "I would also add Michael Patrick Thornton(A Doll's House)as a strong possibility for Featured Actor."
Posted: 3/16/23 at 11:22am
With ''Room'' out, are we really with just 5 contenders? If so, do we get 4 nominees or 3?
- Audra McDonald, Ohio States Murders
- Laura Linney, Summer, 1976
- Jodie Comer, Prima Facie
- Jessica Chastain, A Doll's House
- Zoe Wanamaker, Pictures from Home
Who else is a contender? Jessica Hetch maybe?
Posted: 3/16/23 at 11:28am
I do wonder if Alex Newel will be considered for Actor or Actress since they most likely are going to get a featured nom.
Updated On: 3/16/23 at 11:28 AM
Posted: 3/16/23 at 11:50am
MadsonMelo said: "With ''Room'' out, are we really with just 5 contenders? If so, do we get 4 nominees or 3?
- Audra McDonald, Ohio States Murders
- Laura Linney, Summer, 1976
- Jodie Comer, Prima Facie
- Jessica Chastain, A Doll's House
-Zoe Wanamaker, Pictures from Home
Who else is a contender? Jessica Hetch maybe?"
Hecht is above the title with Linney, so it looks like a 2011 Actress/Musical situation where there are 5/6 viable candidates, but not everyone is going to get a nomination unless the Tony nominators vote to make it so.
Considering the same nomination body shut out 1 of two leading actors in a musical two years ago, anything is possible
Posted: 3/16/23 at 11:57am
MadsonMelo said: "With ''Room'' out, are we really with just 5 contenders? If so, do we get 4 nominees or 3?
- Audra McDonald, Ohio States Murders
- Laura Linney, Summer, 1976
- Jodie Comer, Prima Facie
- Jessica Chastain, A Doll's House
-Zoe Wanamaker, Pictures from Home
Who else is a contender? Jessica Hetch maybe?"
I's imagine either Katie Finneran and/or D'arcy Carden would be submitted as Leading from The Thanksgiving Play?
Posted: 3/16/23 at 12:45pm
JSquared2 said: "MadsonMelo said: "With ''Room'' out, are we really with just 5 contenders? If so, do we get 4 nominees or 3?
- Audra McDonald, Ohio States Murders
- Laura Linney, Summer, 1976
- Jodie Comer, Prima Facie
- Jessica Chastain, A Doll's House
-Zoe Wanamaker, Pictures from Home
Who else is a contender? Jessica Hetch maybe?"
I's imagine either Katie Finneran and/or D'arcy Carden would be submitted as Leading fromThe Thanksgiving Play?
"
If Hetch is a lead, and both Finneran and Carden are also considered, that would bring the total of contenders to 8. It would still be 4 nominees, but at least it would be a bigger pool to chose from.
Posted: 3/18/23 at 8:33pm
There's no way to really predict ties, but since there were so many last year I think this year will follow suit. So I put down an extra nominee in the categories that I think will be close calls.
BEST MUSICAL
BEST PLAY
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY
BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Posted: 3/18/23 at 8:43pm
Forgive me, but Bonnie Mulligan is a lock for Featured Actress Win. Betsy Wolfe was great but Bonnie Mulligan had me wanting to jump out of my seat each time she was on stage.
Posted: 3/18/23 at 8:54pm
Dylan Smith4 said: "Forgive me, but Bonnie Mulligan is a lock for Featured Actress Win. Betsy Wolfe was great but Bonnie Mulligan had me wanting to jump out of my seat each time she was on stage."
Bonnie Milligan, while talented, plays a poorly-written SNL character. I'm not a voter, but I certainly wouldn't be voting for her coming awards season.
Posted: 3/18/23 at 9:08pm
I think Jodie Comer is the actor closest to a lock, and even then I could picture Jessica Chastain upsetting. Every other acting category I think has at least three potentially winning performances.
Posted: 3/18/23 at 9:39pm
I saw both Jodie and Jessica. It’s 100 percent going to Jodie. This is the performance to see asap
Posted: 3/18/23 at 9:42pm
Not counting what should be many deserved wins for the Sondheim revivals, this year will otherwise be a clean sweep for Kimberly Akimbo in the musical categories.
Posted: 3/18/23 at 9:55pm
I honestly think everyone is giving ITW way too much credit. Sure, it was great, but it was so early in the season AND just because something is "great" doesn't mean it's worthy of a Tony nom. Also, stop acting like Bad Cinderella is gonna be forgotten at the Tony's, because it won't. It will likely not win anything, but it will definitely have nominations. There will be 6 Best Musical nominations, just like last year. There will also be 6 each in the leading musical categories. Here's what I think is actually realistic:
* and italicized indicates frontrunners.
Best Musical:
Kimberly Akimbo*
Some Like It Hot
& Juliet
New York, New York
Shucked*
Bad Cinderella
Best Play:
Leopoldstadt*
The Kite Runner
Life of Pi
Prima Facie
Fat Ham*
Best Revival of a Musical:
1776 // Camelot
Sweeney Todd*
Parade
Into The Woods*
Best Revival of a Play:
The Piano Lesson
Death of a Salesman
A Doll’s House*
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Victoria Clark - Kimberly Akimbo*
Phillipa Soo - Camelot
Lorna Courtney - & Juliet
Annaleigh Ashford - Sweeney Todd*
Micaela Diamond - Parade
Anna Uzele - New York, New York // Adriana Hicks - Some Like It Hot
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical:
J. Harrison Ghee - Some Like It Hot*
Josh Groban - Sweeney Todd*
Will Swenson - A Beautiful Noise // Colton Ryan - New York, New York
Christian Borle - Some Like It Hot
Ben Platt - Parade
Alex Newell - Shucked
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Grace McLean - Bad Cinderella
Carolee Carmello - Bad Cinderella*
Bonnie Milligan - Kimberly Akimbo*
NaTasha Yvette Williams - Some Like It Hot
Betsy Wolfe - & Juliet
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Gaten Matarazzo - Sweeney Todd
Alex Joseph Grayson - Parade*
Justin Cooley - Kimberly Akimbo
Joseph Donica - Camelot
Gavin Creel - Into The Woods*
Grey Henson - Shucked
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play:
Audra McDonald - Ohio State Murders
Jodie Comer - Prima Facie*
Jessica Chastain - A Doll’s House*
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play:
*I don’t know enough about this category*
Jefferson Mays - A Christmas Carol
Amir Arison - The Kite Runner
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play:
*I don’t know enough about this category*
Sharon D. Clark - Death of a Salesman
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play:
*I don’t know enough about this category*
Best Choreography:
Some Like It Hot*
& Juliet
New York, New York*
Bob Fosse's Dancin'
Bad Cinderella
KPOP ???
Best Original Score:
Some Like It Hot*
Kimberly Akimbo*
Bad Cinderella
Shucked
New York, New York ???
Best Book of a Musical:
Some Like It Hot*
Kimberly Akimbo
Bad Cinderella
Shucked*
New York, New York
Best Scenic Design of a Musical:
Some Like It Hot*
Kimberly Akimbo
Bad Cinderella
Sweeney Todd
New York, New York*
Best Scenic Design of a Play:
Life of Pi*
Leopoldstadt
Peter Pan Goes Wrong
Best Lighting Design of a Musical:
Some Like It Hot
Kimberly Akimbo
Bad Cinderella*
& Juliet*
Shucked
Bob Fosse's Dancin ???
Best Sound Design of a Musical:
Bad Cinderella
& Juliet*
KPOP
A Beautiful Noise
Best Orchestrations:
Bad Cinderella
& Juliet*
Some Like It Hot*
New York, New York
Sweeney Todd
Posted: 3/18/23 at 10:10pm
Don’t agree. I think people are underestimating SLIH and Parade in the musical categories.
Posted: 3/18/23 at 10:33pm
I believe that SLIH and Parade are contenders, but mainly for nominations. I think SLIH's best shots are Best Book, Best Choreography, and Best Score. Best Book is pushing it because it'd likely go to Kimberly Akimbo based on subject matter or Shucked based on the comedy level. Choreography is almost guaranteed, unless Stroman finally gets a hit for NYNY after a long hiatus. Parade's best shots are for Best Revival and Leading Actress. I think Best Revival is anyone's game. Leading Actress is more stacked, and Victoria Clark is the clear frontrunner. But, I wouldn't be surprised if Annaleigh Ashford took it as an upset.
Posted: 3/18/23 at 10:50pm
Best Featured Actor in a play is a very weak category I think, and Brandon Uranowitz could easily win this as he was the only stand out performance from all the potential nominees.
I thought the book of & Juliet was so brilliant in incorporating popular max Martin music organically into the musical. It was so seamless (although I have to admit the story is a bit silly). I wasn’t that impressed with the book of Kimberly while I do like the music the storylines felt so unfinished that in the course of the show I wasn’t rooting for anyone. I have always championed the underdog in these past best musical winners but as of this moment I’m rooting for a big musical spectacle SLIH to win.
Lear deBasonnet should win the best director of a musical. How she brought out the heart and soul of Sondheim and Lapine’s opus with a bare minimum set was a work of pure genius. Even if I think Sweeney Todd might win best revival because ITW already closed I’m still hoping that Lear gets her well deserved Tony.
Posted: 3/18/23 at 11:13pm
If KA doesn't sweep (which I don't think it will; similar to A Strange Loop), I definitely see Lear deBasonnet winning for ITW.
Posted: 3/18/23 at 11:39pm
Tony season just doesn’t feel the same since we don’t have Susan Haskins struggling to pronounce every nominees name on Theater Talk
Posted: 3/19/23 at 5:01am
If Patti LuPone couldn't win for her Lovett in 2006 in a mediocre field, I don't see how Ashford is winning this especially when up against Clark.
Posted: 3/19/23 at 3:22pm
The biggest reason there were so many ties last year resulting in more nominees was because so many people from the nominating committee had to recuse themselves because they missed a key performance or show (because of canceled shows and understudies...usually due to COVID), therefore there were less people voting on nominees (and more of a statistical chance for a tie).
I don't think we will see so many ties this year. We will be operating with a full nominating committee this year because A)it seems there have been fewer show cancellations and performers missing shows than last year; and B) they made that rule change this year in order to combat this very problem.
So, I wouldn't count on there being as many ties as there were last year. More like a normal year where one or two might pop up.
Posted: 3/19/23 at 5:29pm
With 9 shows eligible for Best Musical, I think it's fairly likely for there to be 6 nominations. And with so many eligible in the leading categories, more than usual, it's pretty safe to say there will be 6 nominees in those categories, as well. But, maybe not, considering Jeanna de Waal was snubbed of a nomination in Leading Actress last season. We shall see.
Posted: 3/19/23 at 5:45pm
BossBroadway said: "With 9 shows eligible for Best Musical, I think it's fairly likely for there to be 6 nominations. And with so many eligible in the leading categories, more than usual, it's pretty safe to say there will be 6 nominees in those categories, as well. But, maybe not, considering Jeanna de Waal was snubbed of a nomination in Leading Actress last season. We shall see."
6 nominees happens when there is tie in the nominations vote. It doesn't happen just because there are a lot of potential nominees or because the nominators want to. The votes have to fall JUST right so that there is an exactly equal number of votes between nominees. With 46 nominators each casting 5 votes in full categories (230 total votes), it will never be statistically likely much less ever "pretty safe to say" that they will perfectly align to produce a tie.
Posted: 3/19/23 at 5:54pm
BossBroadway said: "With 9 shows eligible for Best Musical, I think it's fairly likely for there to be 6 nominations. And with so many eligible in the leading categories, more than usual, it's pretty safe to say there will be 6 nominees in those categories, as well. But, maybe not, considering Jeanna de Waal was snubbed of a nomination in Leading Actress last season. We shall see."
It's not "safe to say" this at all. You only get 6 nominees in a category when there is a tie in voting for the last slot. It's never "safe" to assume a tie is happening. As has been pointed out in a previous post, there will be more nominators in play this year, so statistically, we will have less ties than last year.
As for Best Musical, there are really 5 shows that seem set for a nomination. Unless New York New York is an absolute dud. Then there might be split votes for the last slot and we get a statistical tie and wind up with 6 noms. But I think its more likely we get 5.
Posted: 3/20/23 at 11:08am
Having recently seen Parade, I wanted to pop back in to say that I think Featured Actor in a Musical is going to be quite competitive this year. I went into the show not knowing anything about it other than the basic plot and that Platt and Diamond were the stars, but I came out of it a mega-fan of Alex Joseph Grayson. Holy wow, his performance is just beyond incredible. I would be totally shocked if he didn't get a nomination and I think is extremely possible to win.
Posted: 3/25/23 at 9:02pm
Not too early for predictions with most everything opened! I'll share mine below, let me know what you think! I included full nomination list predictions for categories I felt strong in, and just winner predictions for some. Overall wow what a year! This is a very competitive year for Best Musical, Best Play, Best Revival, and all Performance categories. Bold = win prediction.
BEST MUSICAL
& Juliet
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like it Hot
BEST PLAY
Cost of Living
Fat Ham
Leopoldstadt
Life of Pi
Prima Facie
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Bob Fosse's Dancin'
Camelot
Into the Woods
Parade
Sweeney Todd
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
A Doll's House
Between Riverside and Crazy
Death of a Salesman
The Piano Lesson
Topdog/Underdog
BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
J. Harrison Ghee - Some Like it Hot
Brian D'Arcy James - Into the Woods
Josh Groban - Sweeney Todd
Ben Platt - Parade
Will Swenson - A Beautiful Noise
BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Annaleigh Ashford - Sweeney Todd
Sara Bareilles - Into the Woods
Victoria Clark - Kimberly Akimbo
Micaela Diamond - Parade
Phillipa Soo - Camelot
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Justin Cooley - Kimberly Akimbo
Gavin Creel - Into the Woods
Jordan Donica - Camelot
Alex Joseph Grayson - Parade
Gaten Matarazzo - Sweeney Todd
Alex Newell - Shucked
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Carolee Carmello - Bad Cinderella
Ruthie Ann Miles - Sweeney Todd
Bonnie Milligan - Kimberly Akimbo
Natasha Yvette Williams - Some Like it Hot
Betsy Wolfe - & Juliet
BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY
Hiran Abeysekera - Life of Pi
Corey Hawkins - Topdog/Underdog
Sean Hayes - Good Night, Oscar
Jefferson Mays - A Christmas Carol
Stephen McKinley Henderson - Between Riverside and Crazy
Wendell Pierce - Death of a Salesman
BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Jessica Chastain - A Doll's House
Jodie Comer - Prima Facie
Laura Linney - Summer, 1976
Audra McDonald - Ohio State Murders
BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Michael Potts - The Piano Lesson
David Krumholtz - Leopoldstadt
Gregg Mozgala - Cost of Living
Brandon Uranowitz - Leopoldstadt
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Danielle Brooks - The Piano Lesson
Sharon D Clarke - Death of a Salesman
Crystal Lucas-Perry - Ain't No Mo'
Katy Sullivan - Cost of Living
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
John Kander and Lin Manuel-Miranda - New York, New York
Brandy Clark and Shane McAnally - Shucked
Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman - Some Like it Hot
Jeanine Tesori and David Lindsay-Abaire - Kimberly Akimbo
Andrew Lloyd Webber and David Zippel - Bad Cinderella
BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Robert Horn - Shucked
David Lindsay Abaire - Kimberly Akimbo
Matthew Lopez and Amber Ruffin - Some Like it Hot
Aaron Sorkin - Camelot
David Thompson and Sharon Washington - New York, New York
BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Michael Arden - Parade
Lear de Bessonet - Into the Woods
Thomas Kail - Sweeney Todd
Casey Nicholaw - Some Like it Hot
Bartlett Sher - Camelot
Susan Stroman - New York, New York
BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
Miranda Cromwell - Death of a Salesman
Kenny Leon - Topdog/Underdog
Patrick Marber - Leopoldstadt
Justin Martin - Prima Facie
Max Webster - Life of Pi
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Casey Nicholaw - Some Like it Hot
BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
Bill Sherman - & Juliet
BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Beowulf Borit - New York, New York
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Natasha Katz - Some Like it Hot
BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Gareth Owen - & Juliet
BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Paloma Young - & Juliet
BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY
Tim Hatley - Life of Pi
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
Tim Lutkin - Life of Pi
BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY
Adam Cork - Leopoldstadt
BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY
Anna Fleische and Sarita Fellows - Death of a Salesman
Updated On: 3/25/23 at 09:02 PM
