WAY TOO EARLY 2023 Tony Award Predictions- Page 11

[yyys]

Posted: 3/8/23 at 5:02pm

I'd be surprised...it's not a big role. 

JSquared2 said: "I would also add Michael Patrick Thornton(A Doll's House)as a strong possibility for Featured Actor."

 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 3/16/23 at 11:22am

With ''Room'' out, are we really with just 5 contenders? If so, do we get 4 nominees or 3?

 

- Audra McDonald, Ohio States Murders

- Laura Linney, Summer, 1976

- Jodie Comer, Prima Facie

- Jessica Chastain, A Doll's House

- Zoe Wanamaker, Pictures from Home

Who else is a contender? Jessica Hetch maybe?

[Alex M]

Posted: 3/16/23 at 11:28am

I do wonder if Alex Newel will be considered for Actor or Actress since they most likely are going to get a featured nom.

Updated On: 3/16/23 at 11:28 AM

[quizking101]

Posted: 3/16/23 at 11:50am

MadsonMelo said: "With ''Room'' out, are we really with just 5 contenders? If so, do we get 4 nominees or 3?



- Audra McDonald, Ohio States Murders

- Laura Linney, Summer, 1976

- Jodie Comer, Prima Facie

- Jessica Chastain, A Doll's House

-Zoe Wanamaker, Pictures from Home

Who else is a contender? Jessica Hetch maybe?"

Hecht is above the title with Linney, so it looks like a 2011 Actress/Musical situation where there are 5/6 viable candidates, but not everyone is going to get a nomination unless the Tony nominators vote to make it so. 

Considering the same nomination body shut out 1 of two leading actors in a musical two years ago, anything is possible

[JSquared2]

Posted: 3/16/23 at 11:57am

MadsonMelo said: "With ''Room'' out, are we really with just 5 contenders? If so, do we get 4 nominees or 3?



- Audra McDonald, Ohio States Murders

- Laura Linney, Summer, 1976

- Jodie Comer, Prima Facie

- Jessica Chastain, A Doll's House

-Zoe Wanamaker, Pictures from Home

Who else is a contender? Jessica Hetch maybe?"

 

I's imagine either Katie Finneran and/or D'arcy Carden would be submitted as Leading from The Thanksgiving Play?

 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 3/16/23 at 12:45pm

JSquared2 said: "MadsonMelo said: "With ''Room'' out, are we really with just 5 contenders? If so, do we get 4 nominees or 3?



- Audra McDonald, Ohio States Murders

- Laura Linney, Summer, 1976

- Jodie Comer, Prima Facie

- Jessica Chastain, A Doll's House

-Zoe Wanamaker, Pictures from Home

Who else is a contender? Jessica Hetch maybe?"



I's imagine either Katie Finneran and/or D'arcy Carden would be submitted as Leading fromThe Thanksgiving Play?

"

If Hetch is a lead, and both Finneran and Carden are also considered, that would bring the total of contenders to 8. It would still be 4 nominees, but at least it would be a bigger pool to chose from.

[Jeff Tupolski]

Posted: 3/18/23 at 8:33pm

There's no way to really predict ties, but since there were so many last year I think this year will follow suit. So I put down an extra nominee in the categories that I think will be close calls.

BEST MUSICAL

• & Juliet
• Kimberly Akimbo
• New York, New York
• Shucked
• Some Like it Hot

BEST PLAY

• Between Riverside and Crazy
• Cost of Living
• Fat Ham
• Leopoldstadt
• Prima Facie

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

• Camelot
• Into the Woods
• Parade
• Sweeney Todd

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

• A Doll's House
• Death of a Salesman
• Topdog/Underdog

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

• Andrew Burnap - Camelot
• Brian d'Arcy James - Into the Woods
• J. Harrison Ghee - Some Like it Hot
• Josh Groban - Sweeney Todd
• Ben Platt - Parade

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

• Annaleigh Ashford - Sweeney Todd
• Sara Bareilles - Into the Woods
• Victoria Clarke - Kimberly Akimbo
• Lorna Courtney - & Juliet
• Micaela Diamond - Parade
• Phillipa Soo - Camelot

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY

• Hiran Abeysekera - Life of Pi
• Corey Hawkins - Topdog/Underdog
• Stephen McKinley Henderson - Between Riverside and Crazy
• Jefferson Mays - A Christmas Carol
• Wendell Pierce - Death of a Salesman
• Marcel Spears - Fat Ham

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY

• Jodie Comer - Prima Facie
• Jessica Chastain - A Doll's House
• Laura Linney - Summer, 1976
• Audra McDonald - Ohio State Murders

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

• Justin Cooley - Kimberly Akimbo
• Gavin Creel - Into the Woods
• Kevin Del Aguila - Some Like it Hot
• Jordan Donica - Camelot
• Alex Joseph Grayson - Parade
• Gaten Matarazzo - Sweeney Todd

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

• Ruthie Ann Miles - Sweeney Todd
• Bonnie Mulligan - Kimberly Akimbo
• Phillipa Soo - Into the Woods
• Natasha Yvette Williams - Some Like it Hot
• Betsy Wolfe - & Juliet

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY

• David Krumholtz - Leopoldstadt
• Arian Moayed - A Doll's House
• Gregg Mozgala - Cost of Living
• Michael Rispoli - Between Riverside and Crazy
• Brandon Uranowitz - Leopoldstadt

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY

• Danielle Brooks - The Piano Lesson
• Faye Castelow - Leopoldstadt
• Sharon D. Clarke - Death of a Salesman
• Crystal Lucas-Perry - Ain't No Mo'
• Katy Sullivan - Cost of Living

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL

• Michael Arden - Parade
• Lear deBessonet - Into the Woods
• Thomas Kail - Sweeney Todd
• Luke Sheppard - & Juliet
• Bartlett Sher - Camelot
• Jessica Stone - Kimberly Akimbo

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY

• Shaheem Ali - Fat Ham
• Jamie Lloyd - A Doll's House
• Patrick Marber - Leopoldstadt
• Justin Martin - Prima Facie
• Max Webster - Life of Pi

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Kimberly Akimbo - David Lindsay-Abaire & Jeanine Tesori
• Life of Pi - Andrew T. Mackay
• New York, New York - Fred Ebb, John Kander, Lin-Manuel Miranda
• Shucked - Brandy Clark & Shane McAnally
• Some Like it Hot - Marc Shaiman & Scott Wittman

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL

• & Juliet - David West Read
• Camelot - Aaron Sorkin
• Kimberly Akimbo - David Lindsay-Abaire
• Shucked - Robert Horn
• Some Like it Hot - Mathew Lopez & Amber Ruffin

[Dylan Smith4]

Posted: 3/18/23 at 8:43pm

Forgive me, but Bonnie Mulligan is a lock for Featured Actress Win. Betsy Wolfe was great but Bonnie Mulligan had me wanting to jump out of my seat each time she was on stage. 

[pollster2]

Posted: 3/18/23 at 8:54pm

Dylan Smith4 said: "Forgive me, but Bonnie Mulligan is a lock for Featured Actress Win. Betsy Wolfe was great but Bonnie Mulligan had me wanting to jump out of my seat each time she was on stage."

 

Bonnie Milligan, while talented, plays a poorly-written SNL character. I'm not a voter, but I certainly wouldn't be voting for her coming awards season.

[Jeff Tupolski]

Posted: 3/18/23 at 9:08pm

I think Jodie Comer is the actor closest to a lock, and even then I could picture Jessica Chastain upsetting. Every other acting category I think has at least three potentially winning performances.

[WldKingdomHM]

Posted: 3/18/23 at 9:39pm

I saw both Jodie and Jessica. It’s 100 percent going to Jodie. This is the performance to see asap

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 3/18/23 at 9:42pm

Not counting what should be many deserved wins for the Sondheim revivals, this year will otherwise be a clean sweep for Kimberly Akimbo in the musical categories. 


 

[BossBroadway]

Posted: 3/18/23 at 9:55pm

I honestly think everyone is giving ITW way too much credit. Sure, it was great, but it was so early in the season AND just because something is "great" doesn't mean it's worthy of a Tony nom. Also, stop acting like Bad Cinderella is gonna be forgotten at the Tony's, because it won't. It will likely not win anything, but it will definitely have nominations. There will be 6 Best Musical nominations, just like last year. There will also be 6 each in the leading musical categories. Here's what I think is actually realistic: 

 

* and italicized indicates frontrunners. 

 

Best Musical:

Kimberly Akimbo*

Some Like It Hot

& Juliet

New York, New York

Shucked*

Bad Cinderella

 

Best Play:

Leopoldstadt*

The Kite Runner

Life of Pi

Prima Facie

Fat Ham*

 

Best Revival of a Musical: 

1776 // Camelot

Sweeney Todd*

Parade

Into The Woods*

 

Best Revival of a Play:

The Piano Lesson

Death of a Salesman

A Doll’s House*

 

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical:

Victoria Clark - Kimberly Akimbo*

Phillipa Soo - Camelot

Lorna Courtney - & Juliet

Annaleigh Ashford - Sweeney Todd*

Micaela Diamond - Parade

Anna Uzele - New York, New York // Adriana Hicks - Some Like It Hot

 

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical:

J. Harrison Ghee - Some Like It Hot*

Josh Groban - Sweeney Todd*

Will Swenson - A Beautiful Noise // Colton Ryan - New York, New York 

Christian Borle - Some Like It Hot

Ben Platt - Parade

Alex Newell - Shucked

 

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical:

Grace McLean - Bad Cinderella

Carolee Carmello - Bad Cinderella*

Bonnie Milligan - Kimberly Akimbo*

NaTasha Yvette Williams - Some Like It Hot

Betsy Wolfe - & Juliet

 

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical:

Gaten Matarazzo - Sweeney Todd

Alex Joseph Grayson - Parade*

Justin Cooley - Kimberly Akimbo

Joseph Donica - Camelot

Gavin Creel - Into The Woods*

Grey Henson - Shucked

 

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play:

Audra McDonald - Ohio State Murders

Jodie Comer - Prima Facie*

Jessica Chastain - A Doll’s House*

 

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play:

*I don’t know enough about this category*

Jefferson Mays - A Christmas Carol

Amir Arison - The Kite Runner

 

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play:

*I don’t know enough about this category*

Sharon D. Clark - Death of a Salesman

 

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play:

*I don’t know enough about this category*

 

Best Choreography: 

Some Like It Hot*

& Juliet

New York, New York*

Bob Fosse's Dancin'

Bad Cinderella

KPOP ???

 

Best Original Score: 

Some Like It Hot*

Kimberly Akimbo*

Bad Cinderella

Shucked

New York, New York ???

 

Best Book of a Musical: 

Some Like It Hot*

Kimberly Akimbo

Bad Cinderella

Shucked*

New York, New York

 

Best Scenic Design of a Musical: 

Some Like It Hot*

Kimberly Akimbo

Bad Cinderella

Sweeney Todd

New York, New York*

 

Best Scenic Design of a Play: 

Life of Pi*

Leopoldstadt

Peter Pan Goes Wrong

 

Best Lighting Design of a Musical: 

Some Like It Hot

Kimberly Akimbo

Bad Cinderella*

& Juliet*

Shucked

Bob Fosse's Dancin ???

 

Best Sound Design of a Musical: 

Bad Cinderella

& Juliet*

KPOP

A Beautiful Noise

 

Best Orchestrations: 

Bad Cinderella

& Juliet*

Some Like It Hot*

New York, New York

Sweeney Todd

[BdwyFan]

Posted: 3/18/23 at 10:10pm

Don’t agree.  I think people are underestimating SLIH and Parade in the musical categories. 

[BossBroadway]

Posted: 3/18/23 at 10:33pm

I believe that SLIH and Parade are contenders, but mainly for nominations. I think SLIH's best shots are Best Book, Best Choreography, and Best Score. Best Book is pushing it because it'd likely go to Kimberly Akimbo based on subject matter or Shucked based on the comedy level. Choreography is almost guaranteed, unless Stroman finally gets a hit for NYNY after a long hiatus. Parade's best shots are for Best Revival and Leading Actress. I think Best Revival is anyone's game. Leading Actress is more stacked, and Victoria Clark is the clear frontrunner. But, I wouldn't be surprised if Annaleigh Ashford took it as an upset. 

[Markie27]

Posted: 3/18/23 at 10:50pm

Best Featured Actor in a play is a very weak category I think, and Brandon Uranowitz could easily win this as he was the only stand out performance from all the potential nominees.   
 

I thought the book of & Juliet was so brilliant in incorporating popular max Martin music organically into the musical.  It was so seamless (although I have to admit the story is a bit silly).  I wasn’t that impressed with the book of Kimberly while I do like the music the storylines felt so unfinished that in the course of the show I wasn’t rooting for anyone.  I have always championed the underdog in these past best musical winners but as of this moment I’m rooting for a big musical spectacle SLIH to win.

 

Lear deBasonnet should win the best director of a musical.   How she brought out the heart and soul of Sondheim and Lapine’s opus with a bare minimum set was a work of pure genius.  Even if I think Sweeney Todd might win best revival because ITW already closed I’m still hoping that Lear gets her well deserved Tony.  
 

 

[BossBroadway]

Posted: 3/18/23 at 11:13pm

If KA doesn't sweep (which I don't think it will; similar to A Strange Loop), I definitely see Lear deBasonnet winning for ITW. 

[nativenewyorker2]

Posted: 3/18/23 at 11:39pm

Tony season just doesn’t feel the same since we don’t have Susan Haskins struggling to pronounce every nominees name on Theater Talk

[Musicaldudepeter]

Posted: 3/19/23 at 5:01am

If Patti LuPone couldn't win for her Lovett in 2006 in a mediocre field, I don't see how Ashford is winning this especially when up against Clark.

[MrJNLong]

Posted: 3/19/23 at 3:22pm

The biggest reason there were so many ties last year resulting in more nominees was because so many people from the nominating committee had to recuse themselves because they missed  a key performance or show (because of canceled shows and understudies...usually due to COVID), therefore there were less people voting on nominees (and more of a statistical chance for a tie).

I don't think we will see so many ties this year.  We will be operating with a full nominating committee this year because A)it seems there have been fewer show cancellations and performers missing shows than last year; and B) they made that rule change this year in order to combat this very problem.

So, I wouldn't count on there being as many ties as there were last year. More like a normal year where one or two might pop up.

[BossBroadway]

Posted: 3/19/23 at 5:29pm

With 9 shows eligible for Best Musical, I think it's fairly likely for there to be 6 nominations. And with so many eligible in the leading categories, more than usual, it's pretty safe to say there will be 6 nominees in those categories, as well. But, maybe not, considering Jeanna de Waal was snubbed of a nomination in Leading Actress last season. We shall see. 

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 3/19/23 at 5:45pm

BossBroadway said: "With 9 shows eligible for Best Musical, I think it's fairly likely for there to be 6 nominations. And with so many eligible in the leading categories, more than usual, it's pretty safe to say there will be 6 nominees in those categories, as well. But, maybe not, considering Jeanna de Waal was snubbed of a nomination in Leading Actress last season. We shall see."

6 nominees happens when there is tie in the nominations vote. It doesn't happen just because there are a lot of potential nominees or because the nominators want to. The votes have to fall JUST right so that there is an exactly equal number of votes between nominees. With 46 nominators each casting 5 votes in full categories (230 total votes), it will never be statistically likely much less ever "pretty safe to say" that they will perfectly align to produce a tie. 

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 3/19/23 at 5:54pm

BossBroadway said: "With 9 shows eligible for Best Musical, I think it's fairly likely for there to be 6 nominations. And with so many eligible in the leading categories, more than usual, it's pretty safe to say there will be 6 nominees in those categories, as well. But, maybe not, considering Jeanna de Waal was snubbed of a nomination in Leading Actress last season. We shall see."

It's not "safe to say" this at all. You only get 6 nominees in a category when there is a tie in voting for the last slot. It's never "safe" to assume a tie is happening. As has been pointed out in a previous post, there will be more nominators in play this year, so statistically, we will have less ties than last year. 

As for Best Musical, there are really 5 shows that seem set for a nomination. Unless New York New York is an absolute dud. Then there might be split votes for the last slot and we get a statistical tie and wind up with 6 noms. But I think its more likely we get 5.

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 3/20/23 at 11:08am

Having recently seen Parade, I wanted to pop back in to say that I think Featured Actor in a Musical is going to be quite competitive this year. I went into the show not knowing anything about it other than the basic plot and that Platt and Diamond were the stars, but I came out of it a mega-fan of Alex Joseph Grayson. Holy wow, his performance is just beyond incredible. I would be totally shocked if he didn't get a nomination and I think is extremely possible to win.

[RingOfKeys2]

Posted: 3/25/23 at 9:02pm

Not too early for predictions with most everything opened! I'll share mine below, let me know what you think! I included full nomination list predictions for categories I felt strong in, and just winner predictions for some. Overall wow what a year! This is a very competitive year for Best Musical, Best Play, Best Revival, and all Performance categories. Bold = win prediction. 

BEST MUSICAL 
& Juliet 
Kimberly Akimbo 
New York, New York 
Shucked 
Some Like it Hot

BEST PLAY
Cost of Living 
Fat Ham
Leopoldstadt
Life of Pi 
Prima Facie 

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL 
Bob Fosse's Dancin' 
Camelot
Into the Woods
Parade
Sweeney Todd

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
A Doll's House
Between Riverside and Crazy 
Death of a Salesman
The Piano Lesson 
Topdog/Underdog 

BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL 
J. Harrison Ghee - Some Like it Hot
Brian D'Arcy James - Into the Woods
Josh Groban - Sweeney Todd
Ben Platt - Parade
Will Swenson - A Beautiful Noise 

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL 
Annaleigh Ashford - Sweeney Todd
Sara Bareilles - Into the Woods
Victoria Clark - Kimberly Akimbo 
Micaela Diamond - Parade
Phillipa Soo - Camelot 

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL 
Justin Cooley - Kimberly Akimbo 
Gavin Creel - Into the Woods
Jordan Donica - Camelot 
Alex Joseph Grayson - Parade
Gaten Matarazzo - Sweeney Todd 
Alex Newell - Shucked

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL 
Carolee Carmello - Bad Cinderella
Ruthie Ann Miles - Sweeney Todd
Bonnie Milligan - Kimberly Akimbo 
Natasha Yvette Williams - Some Like it Hot
Betsy Wolfe - & Juliet 


BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY
Hiran Abeysekera - Life of Pi
Corey Hawkins - Topdog/Underdog
Sean Hayes - Good Night, Oscar
Jefferson Mays - A Christmas Carol
Stephen McKinley Henderson - Between Riverside and Crazy
Wendell Pierce - Death of a Salesman

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Jessica Chastain - A Doll's House 
Jodie Comer - Prima Facie 
Laura Linney - Summer, 1976 
Audra McDonald - Ohio State Murders

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Michael Potts - The Piano Lesson 
David Krumholtz - Leopoldstadt 
Gregg Mozgala - Cost of Living 
Brandon Uranowitz - Leopoldstadt 

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Danielle Brooks - The Piano Lesson 
Sharon D Clarke - Death of a Salesman 
Crystal Lucas-Perry - Ain't No Mo'
Katy Sullivan - Cost of Living 
 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 
John Kander and Lin Manuel-Miranda - New York, New York 
Brandy Clark and Shane McAnally - Shucked 
Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman - Some Like it Hot 
Jeanine Tesori and David Lindsay-Abaire - Kimberly Akimbo 
Andrew Lloyd Webber and David Zippel - Bad Cinderella 

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL 
Robert Horn - Shucked 
David Lindsay Abaire - Kimberly Akimbo 
Matthew Lopez and Amber Ruffin - Some Like it Hot 
Aaron Sorkin - Camelot 
David Thompson and Sharon Washington - New York, New York 

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL 
Michael Arden - Parade 
Lear de Bessonet - Into the Woods 
Thomas Kail - Sweeney Todd
Casey Nicholaw - Some Like it Hot
Bartlett Sher - Camelot 
Susan Stroman - New York, New York 

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
Miranda Cromwell - Death of a Salesman 
Kenny Leon - Topdog/Underdog 
Patrick Marber - Leopoldstadt  
Justin Martin - Prima Facie 
Max Webster - Life of Pi 

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY 
Casey Nicholaw - Some Like it Hot 

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS 
Bill Sherman - & Juliet 

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL 
Beowulf Borit - New York, New York

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL 
Natasha Katz - Some Like it Hot 

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL 
Gareth Owen - & Juliet 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL 
Paloma Young - & Juliet 

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY
Tim Hatley - Life of Pi

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
Tim Lutkin - Life of Pi 

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY 
Adam Cork - Leopoldstadt 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY
Anna Fleische and Sarita Fellows - Death of a Salesman 

Updated On: 3/25/23 at 09:02 PM