WAY TOO EARLY 2023 Tony Award Predictions- Page 10

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 3/5/23 at 12:15pm

jkcohen626 said: "I'm also realizing how sparse some categories are! Akimbo, Some Like it Hot, Shucked, and probably Room will all get nominations for Best Score, but that last slot is SO wide open. It's either Bad Cinderella, a Fall flop, or a play."

There will be 5 slots for Score because there are plays with underscores. Those are eligible and therefore increase the number of nomination slots to 5. I think Bad Cinderella and Shucked make it in here. Maaaybe Life of Pi if they really hate the music to those musicals, but I think voters will throw them a bone. And I know folks who think Shucked has really fun music (havent caught it yet).

 

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 3/5/23 at 12:43pm

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "jkcohen626 said: "I'm also realizing how sparse some categories are! Akimbo, Some Like it Hot, Shucked, and probably Room will all get nominations for Best Score, but that last slot is SO wide open. It's either Bad Cinderella, a Fall flop, or a play."

There will be 5 slots for Score because there are plays with underscores. Those are eligible and therefore increase the number of nomination slots to 5. I think Bad Cinderella and Shucked make it in here. Maaaybe Life of Pi if they really hate the music to those musicals, but I think voters will throw them a bone. And I know folks who think Shucked has really fun music (havent caught it yet).

"

Read my comment again. I mention five slots. Four for Akimbo, Some Like it Hot, Shucked, and Room. One nomination slot wide open that could be for Bad Cinderella, one of the Fall flops (Almost Famous and KPOP), or a play. 

I guess you could consider Bad Cinderella the frontrunner for it, but I just have a hard time wrapping my head around the nominating committee rewarding that show for anything besides MAYBE Carolee Carmello's performance. Although people thought that way last year (that Lehman would get in over Mr. Saturday Night) and we ended up being wrong ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 3/5/23 at 12:55pm

Somehow I didn't see Shucked in your comment. Oops.

And yeah, Bad Cinderella would be an...interesting nominee here. But sometimes being a big name gets you a name check nomination. So I think unless people fall in love with Life of Pi (or decide they want to make history with KPOP I guess) then Webber gets name checked for Bad Cinderella.

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 11:22am

What are people thinking at the moment when it comes to Best Actress in a Musical this season? For a while, I thought it would be a solid race between Victoria Clark and Micaela Diamond. But Annaleigh Ashford's Mrs. Lovett just totally blew me away last week and felt like a career-defining performance. If I were a Tony voter, she'd likely be getting my vote.

But who else will be nominated this year? Such a packed category! We've already seen terrific work from Sara Bareilles, Lorna Courtney, Adrianna Hicks, Patina Miller... and then some we haven't even seen yet like Phillipa Soo and Anna Uzele. What an embarrassment of riches this year in this category.

Edit: I'm dumb and just realized people were literally talking about this two days ago, lol!

Updated On: 3/7/23 at 11:22 AM

[quizking101]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 11:34am

Actress In A Musical seems to come down to this 5 for me:

- Victoria Clark (Akimbo)
- Micaela Diamond (Parade)
- Annaleigh Ashford (Sweeney)
- Lorna Courtney (& Juliet)
- Sara Bareilles (Into...Woods)

Soo and Uzele remain the spoilers of the shows left to open this season.

Hicks and Miller seem far outside this race since Miller's performance was divisive (I loved her btw) and Hicks is heavily overshadowed by her more superior co-stars. If any female is getting a nod for SLIH, it's Natasha Yvette Williams for Featured Actress.

Granted - in a year where there is an embarrassment of riches (I counted 12 Leading Actresses), there could easily be more than 5 nominees)

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 11:48am

Eh, I'm always happy to speculate. 

I think Clark is still the front-runner, but I think Ashford turned out to be much bigger competition than expected and than any other potential nominees could be. She's the one that I think really could beat Clark. 

Then Diamond and Sara B have the 3rd and 4th slot locked down. 

The 5th and potential 6th slots are harder to predict, especially without knowing the reception to Uzele or Soo. I think it's safe to eliminate Luna, Crytal Lucas-Perry (who will def get a nom and could win for Supporting Actress in a play), and Linedy Geneo. I also think the response to Hicks was tepid, so she'll get left out and my gut says that only one Into the Woods leading lady gets a nom, so Miller will get left out. That leaves Courtney (whom I believe was received pretty well), Uzele, and Soo. I have Soo in my predictions right now, but I REALLY don't know how it will go. I could be totally wrong.

EDIT just to say JINX to Quizking! They posted while I was drafting!

Updated On: 3/7/23 at 11:48 AM

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 11:50am

We had six nominees for Best Actress in a Musical in 2018. What was the reasoning for that? Was there similarly an embarrassment of riches to choose from, or was there a tie in the nominating phase? I'm genuinely curious how possible six nominees are this year.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 11:53am

I think Soo has a strong chance of taking that 5th slot and very possibly being a double nominee (Featured for Into the Woods). Embarrassment of riches, though. Wish it could be like this every year.

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 12:00pm

ElephantLoveMedley said: "We had six nominees for Best Actress in a Musical in 2018. What was the reasoning for that? Was there similarly an embarrassment of riches to choose from, or was there a tie in the nominating phase? I'm genuinely curious how possible six nominees are this year."

Yes! More than five (or the expected number of) nominees come from ties! Last year seven categories had 6 nominees and there were SEVEN nominees for Best Actor in a Play. 

Again, this all depends on the reception to Soo and Uzele. If they're both received well, I could definitely see a tie happening again. 

While on the subject, Best Actor in a Play is so INSANELY packed again that I can also definitely foresee 6 or even 7 nominees again. 

[bdn223]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 12:04pm

jkcohen626 said: "Eh, I'm always happy to speculate.

I think Clark is still the front-runner, but I think Ashford turned out to be much bigger competition than expected and than any other potential nominees could be. She's the one that I think really could beat Clark.

Then Diamond and Sara B have the 3rd and 4th slot locked down.

The 5th and potential 6th slots are harder to predict, especially without knowing the reception to Uzele or Soo. I think it's safe to eliminate Luna, Crytal Lucas-Perry (who will def get a nom and could win for Supporting Actress in a play), and Linedy Geneo. I also think the response to Hicks was tepid, so she'll get left out and my gut says that only one Into the Woods leading lady gets a nom, so Miller will get left out. That leaves Courtney (whom I believe was received pretty well), Uzele, and Soo. I have Soo in my predictions right now, but I REALLY don't know how it will go.

I could be totally wrong, but that's how I'm feeling right now.

EDIT just to say JINX to Quizking! They posted while I was drafting!"

You left out Caroline Innerbichler of Shucked. I don't know how she or the show will be received, but from the buzz I have heard she gives a star making performance, not enough to challenge Ashford or Clark, but a performance that may shake up who gets a nomination. 

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 12:15pm

bdn223 said: "You left out Caroline Innerbichler of Shucked. I don't know how she or the show will be received, but from the buzz I have heard she gives a star making performance, not enough to challenge Ashford or Clark, but a performance that may shake up who gets a nomination."

You're totally right! I have been using Gold Derby just because it makes it so easy to organize. They have her under featured right now, but I think it's just because the committee hasn't ruled on Shucked yet! I could definitely see her getting a nomination!

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 12:16pm

I'm fairly certain these are all of the eligible nominees for Best Actress in a Musical this year:

Annaleigh Ashford (Sweeney Todd)
Sara Bareilles (Into the Woods)
Victoria Clark (Kimberly Akimbo)
Lorna Courtney (& Juliet)
Micaela Diamond (Parade)
Linedy Genao (Bad Cinderella)
Adrianna Hicks (Some Like It Hot)
Caroline Innerbichler (Shucked)
Crystal Lucas-Perry (1776)
Luna (KPOP)
Patina Miller (Into the Woods)
Phillipa Soo (Camelot)
Anna Uzele (New York, New York)

If I'm not missing anybody, then this would mean there are 13 eligible actresses this year.

And while I'm at it, here is everyone I believe will be eligible for Best Actor in a Musical:

Christian Borle (Some Like It Hot)
Andrew Burnap (Camelot)
Brian D'Arcy James (Into the Woods)
Jordan Donica (Camelot)
J. Harrison Ghee (Some Like It Hot)
Josh Groban (Sweeney Todd)
Casey Likes (Almost Famous)
Ben Platt (Parade)
Colton Ryan (New York, New York)
Will Swenson (A Beautiful Noise)

By my count here, there will be 10 eligible actors.

Updated On: 3/7/23 at 12:16 PM

[bdn223]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 12:24pm

ElephantLoveMedley said: "I'm fairly certain these are all of the eligible nominees for Best Actress in a Musical this year:

Annaleigh Ashford (Sweeney Todd)
Sara Bareilles (Into the Woods)
Victoria Clark (Kimberly Akimbo)
Lorna Courtney (& Juliet)
Micaela Diamond (Parade)
Linedy Genao (Bad Cinderella)
Adrianna Hicks (Some Like It Hot)
Caroline Innerbichler (Shucked)
Crystal Lucas-Perry (1776)
Luna (KPOP)
Patina Miller (Into the Woods)
Phillipa Soo (Camelot)
Anna Uzele (New York, New York)

If I'm not missing anybody, then this would mean there are 13 eligible actresses this year.

And while I'm at it, here is everyone I believe will be eligible for Best Actor in a Musical:

Christian Borle (Some Like It Hot)
Andrew Burnap (Camelot)
Brian D'Arcy James (Into the Woods)
Jordan Donica (Camelot)
J. Harrison Ghee (Some Like It Hot)
Josh Groban (Sweeney Todd)
Casey Likes (Almost Famous)
Ben Platt (Parade)
Colton Ryan (New York, New York)
Will Swenson (A Beautiful Noise)

By my count here, there will be 10 eligible actors."

I think Jordan Dobson will be considered a Lead Actor for Bad Cinderella and depending on how things play out John Behlmann or Andrew Duran could be considered leading for Shucked, but from what I have heard they are pushing for Caroline Innerbichler to be considered the show's sole lead. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 12:27pm

Lancelot is a Featured role, unless Sorkin has significantly padded the part here.

Side note, Robert Goulet surprisingly wasn't even nominated for CAMELOT.

[IdinaBellFoster]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 2:08pm

I could see a scenario where Soo is double nominated, and ends up winning for INTO THE WOODS (deservedly so) as it’s going to be the less stacked category.

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 2:13pm

Regarding individuals with multiple nominations (excluding designers):

Soo absolutely gets two nominations. Crystal Lucas-Perry does not because of the tepid reception for 1776.

Does Jennifer Weber get nominated twice in the same category? I thought her choreography stood out more in KPOP than in & Juliet. 

[Dylan Smith4]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 2:58pm

My list is too large for this thread, but after doing the GoldDerby prediction, I am predicting that Kimberly Akimbo, Some Like it Hot, and Into the Woods will receive the most nominations. I do hope that Phillipa Soo gets a double nomination! She deserves it!

[wickedwitch2]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 5:42pm

Will Camelot/Sorkin be eligible for Best Book?

[Dylan Smith4]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 5:56pm

wickedwitch2 said: "Will Camelot/Sorkin be eligible for Best Book?"

I don't think so as it's a revival. I don't know if revivals with new books can qualify for best book. Can someone clarify that? 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 6:14pm

Dylan Smith4 said: "wickedwitch2 said: "Will Camelot/Sorkin be eligible for Best Book?"

I don't think so as it's a revival. I don't know if revivals with new books can qualify for best book. Can someone clarify that?"

If Sorkin completely rewrites the book, I could see them making him eligible. Douglas Carter Beane was eligible and nominated for Cinderella, although that's a slightly different situation since Cinderella hadn't been on Broadway before (but this happened before they were making book writers or composers automatically eligible in those scenarios, so they still met and decided to make him eligible even though he normally wouldn't have been). My guess is they'll ultimately say he isn't, but it's certainly possible if the rewrites are extensive enough.

Updated On: 3/7/23 at 06:14 PM

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 3/7/23 at 6:32pm

David Henry Hwang was nominated for his book of the 2002 Flower Drum Song revival. Hugh Wheeler won for his book of the 1974 revival of Candide.

This Camelot revival literally says “Book by Aaron Sorkin” in the credits, so I imagine he will be eligible.

Updated On: 3/7/23 at 06:32 PM

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/8/23 at 12:06am

ElephantLoveMedley said: "I'm fairly certain these are all of the eligible nominees for Best Actress in a Musical this year:

Annaleigh Ashford (Sweeney Todd)
Sara Bareilles (Into the Woods)
Victoria Clark (Kimberly Akimbo)
Lorna Courtney (& Juliet)
Micaela Diamond (Parade)
Linedy Genao (Bad Cinderella)
Adrianna Hicks (Some Like It Hot)
Caroline Innerbichler (Shucked)
Crystal Lucas-Perry (1776)
Luna (KPOP)
Patina Miller (Into the Woods)
Phillipa Soo (Camelot)
Anna Uzele (New York, New York)

If I'm not missing anybody, then this would mean there are 13 eligible actresses this year.

And while I'm at it, here is everyone I believe will be eligible for Best Actor in a Musical:

Christian Borle (Some Like It Hot)
Andrew Burnap (Camelot)
Brian D'Arcy James (Into the Woods)
Jordan Donica (Camelot)
J. Harrison Ghee (Some Like It Hot)
Josh Groban (Sweeney Todd)
Casey Likes (Almost Famous)
Ben Platt (Parade)
Colton Ryan (New York, New York)
Will Swenson (A Beautiful Noise)

By my count here, there will be 10 eligible actors."

Re: Leading Actress, it sounds like they haven’t yet made the call whether Room will be considered play or musical (unless I missed some news), so that could shake things up as well. 

Also, I love Philippa Soo and hope she gets a nomination for Cinderella, but Bonnie Milligan is my clear frontrunner in Featured. 

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 3/8/23 at 10:03am

With 55 days remaining until nominations come out (and tons of questions still remaining about eligibility decisions), I thought I'd try my luck and share what I'm currently thinking about performance nominations. (Don't get angry at me for anything below, this is all just for fun!)

In each category, I have the actors ranked in order of how likely I personally they have a chance of winning.

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
1. Annaleigh Ashford (Sweeney Todd)
2. Victoria Clark (Kimberly Akimbo)
3. Micaela Diamond (Parade)
4. Phillipa Soo (Camelot)
5. Lorna Courtney (& Juliet)

Potential Swap: Sara Bareilles (Into the Woods) or Caroline Innerbichler (Shucked)

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
1. Josh Groban (Sweeney Todd)
2. Andrew Burnap (Camelot)
3. J. Harrison Ghee (Some Like It Hot)
4. Ben Platt (Parade)
5. Brian D’Arcy James (Into the Woods)

Potential Swap: Christian Borle (Some Like It Hot) or Will Swenson (A Beautiful Noise)

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
1. Betsy Wolfe (& Juliet)
2. Bonnie Milligan (Kimberly Akimbo)
3. Phillipa Soo (Into the Woods)
4. Alli Mauzey (Kimberly Akimbo)
5. Ruthie Ann Miles (Sweeney Todd)

Potential Swap: Julia Lester (Into the Woods) or Melanie La Barrie (& Juliet)

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
1. Gaten Matarazzo (Sweeney Todd)
2. Jordan Donica (Camelot)
3. Justin Cooley (Kimberly Akimbo)
4. Steven Boyer (Kimberly Akimbo)
5. Gavin Creel (Into the Woods)

Potential Swap: Paolo Szot (& Juliet) or possibly one of the actors from Shucked?

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY
1. Jodie Comer (Prima Facie)
2. Jessica Chastain (A Doll’s House)
3. Adrienne Warren (Room)
4. Audra McDonald (Ohio State Murders)
5. Laura Linney (Summer, 1976)

Potential Swap: Jessica Hecht (Summer, 1976)

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY
1. Wendell Pierce (Death of a Salesman)
2. Hiran Abeysekera (Life of Pi)
3. Marcel Spears (Fat Ham)
4. Jefferson Mays (A Christmas Carol)
5. Sean Hayes (Good Night, Oscar)

Potential Swap: John David Washington (The Piano Lesson)

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
1. Sharon D. Clarke (Death of a Salesman)
2. Danielle Brooks (The Piano Lesson)
3. Kate Burton (Room)
4. Crystal Lucas-Perry (Ain’t No’ Mo&rsquo
5. Katy Sullivan (Cost of Living)

Potential Swap: Faye Castelow (Leopoldstadt) or Katie Finneran/D’Arcy Carden (The Thanksgiving Play)

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
1. Brandon Uranowitz (Leopoldstadt)
2. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson)
3. David Krumholtz (Leopoldstadt)
4. Ray Fisher (The Piano Lesson)
5. Gregg Mozgala (Cost of Living)

Potential Swap: Arian Moayed (A Doll’s House), André De Shields (Death of a Salesman), Jordan E. Cooper (Ain’t No Mo&rsquo

Updated On: 3/8/23 at 10:03 AM

[BdwyFan]

Posted: 3/8/23 at 10:11am

I’m gonna guess that Kevin Del Aguila from SLIH is a lock along with Natasha Yvette Williams - both in featured.  They were both amazing! 

[JSquared2]

Posted: 3/8/23 at 12:27pm

I would also add Michael Patrick Thornton (A Doll's House) as a strong possibility for Featured Actor.