WAY TOO EARLY 2023 Tony Award Predictions — Page 10

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "jkcohen626 said: "I'm also realizing how sparse some categories are! Akimbo, Some Like it Hot, Shucked, and probably Room will all get nominations for Best Score, but that last slot is SO wide open. It's either Bad Cinderella, a Fall flop, or a play."

There will be 5 slots for Score because there are plays with underscores. Those are eligible and therefore increase the number of nomination slots to 5. I think Bad Cinderella and Shucked make it in here. Maaaybe Life of Pi if they really hate the music to those musicals, but I think voters will throw them a bone. And I know folks who think Shucked has really fun music (havent caught it yet).

"

Read my comment again. I mention five slots. Four for Akimbo, Some Like it Hot, Shucked, and Room. One nomination slot wide open that could be for Bad Cinderella, one of the Fall flops (Almost Famous and KPOP), or a play.

I guess you could consider Bad Cinderella the frontrunner for it, but I just have a hard time wrapping my head around the nominating committee rewarding that show for anything besides MAYBE Carolee Carmello's performance. Although people thought that way last year (that Lehman would get in over Mr. Saturday Night) and we ended up being wrong ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

What are people thinking at the moment when it comes to Best Actress in a Musical this season? For a while, I thought it would be a solid race between Victoria Clark and Micaela Diamond. But Annaleigh Ashford's Mrs. Lovett just totally blew me away last week and felt like a career-defining performance. If I were a Tony voter, she'd likely be getting my vote.

But who else will be nominated this year? Such a packed category! We've already seen terrific work from Sara Bareilles, Lorna Courtney, Adrianna Hicks, Patina Miller... and then some we haven't even seen yet like Phillipa Soo and Anna Uzele. What an embarrassment of riches this year in this category.

Edit: I'm dumb and just realized people were literally talking about this two days ago, lol!

Updated On: 3/7/23 at 11:22 AM

Eh, I'm always happy to speculate.

I think Clark is still the front-runner, but I think Ashford turned out to be much bigger competition than expected and than any other potential nominees could be. She's the one that I think really could beat Clark.

Then Diamond and Sara B have the 3rd and 4th slot locked down.

The 5th and potential 6th slots are harder to predict, especially without knowing the reception to Uzele or Soo. I think it's safe to eliminate Luna, Crytal Lucas-Perry (who will def get a nom and could win for Supporting Actress in a play), and Linedy Geneo. I also think the response to Hicks was tepid, so she'll get left out and my gut says that only one Into the Woods leading lady gets a nom, so Miller will get left out. That leaves Courtney (whom I believe was received pretty well), Uzele, and Soo. I have Soo in my predictions right now, but I REALLY don't know how it will go. I could be totally wrong.

EDIT just to say JINX to Quizking! They posted while I was drafting!

Updated On: 3/7/23 at 11:48 AM

I think Soo has a strong chance of taking that 5th slot and very possibly being a double nominee (Featured for Into the Woods). Embarrassment of riches, though. Wish it could be like this every year.

jkcohen626 said: "Eh, I'm always happy to speculate.

I think Clark is still the front-runner, but I think Ashford turned out to be much bigger competition than expected and than any other potential nominees could be. She's the one that I think really could beat Clark.

Then Diamond and Sara B have the 3rd and 4th slot locked down.

The 5th and potential 6th slots are harder to predict, especially without knowing the reception to Uzele or Soo. I think it's safe to eliminate Luna, Crytal Lucas-Perry (who will def get a nom and could win for Supporting Actress in a play), and Linedy Geneo. I also think the response to Hicks was tepid, so she'll get left out and my gut says that only one Into the Woods leading lady gets a nom, so Miller will get left out. That leaves Courtney (whom I believe was received pretty well), Uzele, and Soo. I have Soo in my predictions right now, but I REALLY don't know how it will go.

I could be totally wrong, but that's how I'm feeling right now.

EDIT just to say JINX to Quizking! They posted while I was drafting!"

You left out Caroline Innerbichler of Shucked. I don't know how she or the show will be received, but from the buzz I have heard she gives a star making performance, not enough to challenge Ashford or Clark, but a performance that may shake up who gets a nomination.

I'm fairly certain these are all of the eligible nominees for Best Actress in a Musical this year:

Annaleigh Ashford (Sweeney Todd)
Sara Bareilles (Into the Woods)
Victoria Clark (Kimberly Akimbo)
Lorna Courtney (& Juliet)
Micaela Diamond (Parade)
Linedy Genao (Bad Cinderella)
Adrianna Hicks (Some Like It Hot)
Caroline Innerbichler (Shucked)
Crystal Lucas-Perry (1776)
Luna (KPOP)
Patina Miller (Into the Woods)
Phillipa Soo (Camelot)
Anna Uzele (New York, New York)

If I'm not missing anybody, then this would mean there are 13 eligible actresses this year.

And while I'm at it, here is everyone I believe will be eligible for Best Actor in a Musical:

Christian Borle (Some Like It Hot)
Andrew Burnap (Camelot)
Brian D'Arcy James (Into the Woods)
Jordan Donica (Camelot)
J. Harrison Ghee (Some Like It Hot)
Josh Groban (Sweeney Todd)
Casey Likes (Almost Famous)
Ben Platt (Parade)
Colton Ryan (New York, New York)
Will Swenson (A Beautiful Noise)

By my count here, there will be 10 eligible actors.

Updated On: 3/7/23 at 12:16 PM

Lancelot is a Featured role, unless Sorkin has significantly padded the part here.

Side note, Robert Goulet surprisingly wasn't even nominated for CAMELOT.

Regarding individuals with multiple nominations (excluding designers):

Soo absolutely gets two nominations. Crystal Lucas-Perry does not because of the tepid reception for 1776.

Does Jennifer Weber get nominated twice in the same category? I thought her choreography stood out more in KPOP than in & Juliet.

Will Camelot/Sorkin be eligible for Best Book?

Dylan Smith4 said: "wickedwitch2 said: "Will Camelot/Sorkin be eligible for Best Book?"

I don't think so as it's a revival. I don't know if revivals with new books can qualify for best book. Can someone clarify that?"

If Sorkin completely rewrites the book, I could see them making him eligible. Douglas Carter Beane was eligible and nominated for Cinderella, although that's a slightly different situation since Cinderella hadn't been on Broadway before (but this happened before they were making book writers or composers automatically eligible in those scenarios, so they still met and decided to make him eligible even though he normally wouldn't have been). My guess is they'll ultimately say he isn't, but it's certainly possible if the rewrites are extensive enough.

Updated On: 3/7/23 at 06:14 PM

ElephantLoveMedley said: "I'm fairly certain these are all of the eligible nominees for Best Actress in a Musical this year:

Annaleigh Ashford (Sweeney Todd)
Sara Bareilles (Into the Woods)
Victoria Clark (Kimberly Akimbo)
Lorna Courtney (& Juliet)
Micaela Diamond (Parade)
Linedy Genao (Bad Cinderella)
Adrianna Hicks (Some Like It Hot)
Caroline Innerbichler (Shucked)
Crystal Lucas-Perry (1776)
Luna (KPOP)
Patina Miller (Into the Woods)
Phillipa Soo (Camelot)
Anna Uzele (New York, New York)

If I'm not missing anybody, then this would mean there are 13 eligible actresses this year.

And while I'm at it, here is everyone I believe will be eligible for Best Actor in a Musical:

Christian Borle (Some Like It Hot)
Andrew Burnap (Camelot)
Brian D'Arcy James (Into the Woods)
Jordan Donica (Camelot)
J. Harrison Ghee (Some Like It Hot)
Josh Groban (Sweeney Todd)
Casey Likes (Almost Famous)
Ben Platt (Parade)
Colton Ryan (New York, New York)
Will Swenson (A Beautiful Noise)

By my count here, there will be 10 eligible actors."

Re: Leading Actress, it sounds like they haven’t yet made the call whether Room will be considered play or musical (unless I missed some news), so that could shake things up as well.

Also, I love Philippa Soo and hope she gets a nomination for Cinderella, but Bonnie Milligan is my clear frontrunner in Featured.

I’m gonna guess that Kevin Del Aguila from SLIH is a lock along with Natasha Yvette Williams - both in featured. They were both amazing!