WAY TOO EARLY 2023 Tony Award Predictions- Page 13

[BdwyFan]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 10:43am

I truly believe Ghee will win. It’s a stellar performance. Platt and Groban may cancel each other out since they’re both in revivals. 

[Bryce 2]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 1:02pm

ElephantLoveMedley said: "I also think that this award is Groban's to lose. And I say that as someone who typically detests Platt but thought he was extraordinary inParade, as well as someone who thought that Ghee was one of the best parts of an otherwise terrible show. Groban is vocally staggering, and I thought his acting was unique in a refreshing way.

I personally think nominations are all but guaranteed for those three men (Ghee, Groban, and Platt). This leaves the other two nomination spots open to Christian Borle, Andrew Burnap, Brian D'Arcy James, Casey Likes, Colton Ryan, and Will Swenson.

What are our thoughts on how those remaining nominations will play out? I would personally nominate Burnap and D'Arcy James."

I see Burnap and Swenson being the most likely people to sneak in for those final two slots, purely just because of recency bias. We all love Brian D'Arcy James, but it's undeniable that Swenson is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that show, and he'll probably get the nod for it. 

 

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 1:31pm

Having seen Borle, Burnap, Ghee, Groban,  James, Platt, and Swenson, I would hands down give it to Burnap. His Arthur is truly magnificent.

[LesWickedly]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 1:55pm

bwayphreak234 said: "Having seen Borle, Burnap, Ghee, Groban, James, Platt, and Swenson, I would hands down give it to Burnap. His Arthur is truly magnificent."

Could not agree more. I have seen every leading performance and Burnap gave the strongest and most memorable of the bunch. All the others have slight detractions (Platt a very solid return, Groban mostly great, Ghee a highlight in an average show), but Burnap is giving an incredible performance in an incredible production, only complemented by his co-stars, not outshined. I will await reviews but for my money I could see him end up a serious contender. 

[Dylan Smith4]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 1:57pm

Oh, I am REALLY excited to see Camelot next week now!

[JSquared2]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 2:04pm

bwayphreak234 said: "Having seen Borle, Burnap, Ghee, Groban, James, Platt, and Swenson, I would hands down give it to Burnap. His Arthur is truly magnificent."

 

Funny, but having seen all of these performances, I would rank Burnap dead last (in fact I wouldn't even nominate him).  I saw the 2nd preview -- so hopefully he's improved since then. 

That what makes it a horse race!

 

[JSquared2]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 2:10pm

Broadway61004 said: "It feels like Burnap and James are the most likely, but I also for some reason have a feeling they're going to like A Beautiful Noise much more than we're anticipating, which leads me to think Swenson will get in. Would not at all be shocked if we get 6 nominees since the vote for this category seems like it's going to be very, very close."

 

I think you're mistaken.  The industry doesn't like Beautiful Noise much -- and they REALLY don't like its lead producer -- so the show may get completely shut out (with the possible exception of Swenson -- who is loved by the industry).

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 2:30pm

Re: A Beautiful Noise - I think Robyn Hurder gave the best performance in that show. Her one number, "Forever In Blue Jeans", was remarkable. I would love to see her nominated for best featured actress, but that's a tight race.

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 2:40pm

bwayphreak234 said: "Re: A Beautiful Noise - I think Robyn Hurder gave the best performance in that show. Her one number, "Forever In Blue Jeans", was remarkable. I would love to see her nominated for best featured actress, but that's a tight race."

I thought Robyn was a standout in Beautiful Noise too and really loved her big number. I've been a fan of her dancing for years but that number showed how strong she is vocally, too.

Looking to who her competitors would be for a Featured Actress nomination, I think we can probably safely predict that Betsy Wolfe and Bonnie Milligan will be nominated. I think Alli Mauzey is up there, too. Who else are we thinking is a strong contender? Ruthie Ann Miles received really strong notices on Sunday. I'd also love to see Phillipa Soo be double-nominated this year. Several have mentioned NaTasha Yvette Williams as a possible nominee, but I didn't personally find her to be that big of a standout in SLIH. We could see Melanie La Barrie, Julia Lester, Carolee Carmello, too. Really strong category this year.

[TheTriangularWater]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 3:03pm

I think that Carolee will be nominated for Bad Cinderella as one of the few nominations that BC will get. (Along with maybe lighting and costumes)

What nominations do you think that shows that flopped will get?

Do we think that 1776 will get a costumes nomination, and was K-pops lighting or choreo good enough for a nomination, and will Almost Famous get anything?

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 3:24pm

JSquared2 said: "I think you're mistaken. The industry doesn't likeBeautiful Noisemuch -- and they REALLY don't like its lead producer -- so the show may get completely shut out (with the possible exception of Swenson -- who is loved by the industry)."

You make a good point about He Who Shall Not Be Named. I'm just thinking with all the recent biopic jukebox musicals they've fallen for (MJ, Tina (albeit by default), Ain't Too Proud, Beautiful, etc) that it may still have a shot. Would also not be stunned to see someone like Mark Jacoby sneak into a wide open featured actor race. But we shall see.

[wickedwitch2]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 3:44pm

For those who have seen Camelot, do you think it will be eligible for Best Book?

[pethian]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 4:05pm

JSquared2 said: " The industry doesn't likeBeautiful Noisemuch -- and they REALLY don't like its lead producer -- so the show may get completely shut out (with the possible exception of Swenson -- who is loved by the industry)."

They don't like him so much that they gave him a Tony Award as lead producer for best revival of a musical?  And they don't like him so much that he's secured three Broadway houses as lead producer for his last three shows including the Broadhurst from the Shuberts? C'mon. YOU obviously don't like him and THEY may or may not like him, but that doesn't amount to a hill of beans in this business.

 

[brodynky]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 4:17pm

No expert on the original book from Camelot, and it’s been years since I’ve seen it. But after seeing this revival a week ago, I can’t believe there was much of the book left untouched…and yet it seemed very natural to me. So I’d say yes, Sorkin will be eligible, nominated, and may win. 
And I also agree, Burnap is fantastic, and the main reason this new version works so well. 

[JSquared2]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 4:18pm

pethian said: "JSquared2 said: " The industry doesn't likeBeautiful Noisemuch -- and they REALLY don't like its lead producer -- so the show may get completely shut out (with the possible exception of Swenson -- who is loved by the industry)."

They don't like him so much that they gave him a Tony Award as lead producer for best revival of a musical? And they don't like him so much that he's secured three Broadway houses as lead producer for his last three shows including the Broadhurst from the Shuberts? C'mon. YOU obviously don't like him and THEY may or may not like him, but that doesn't amount to a hill of beans in this business.

"

Sorry if I touched a nerve, KD!

 

[BETTY22]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 5:23pm

JSquared2 said: "Broadway61004 said: "It feels like Burnap and James are the most likely, but I also for some reason have a feeling they're going to like A Beautiful Noise much more than we're anticipating, which leads me to think Swenson will get in. Would not at all be shocked if we get 6 nominees since the vote for this category seems like it's going to be very, very close."



I think you're mistaken. The industry doesn't likeBeautiful Noisemuch -- and they REALLY don't like its lead producer -- so the show may get completely shut out (with the possible exception of Swenson -- who is loved by the industry)."

 

We get it. You hate Ken and everything he does. If he produced Follies or Hamilton, you would hate it.

However, I applaud independent producers who are not part of the Disney or big corporate machine that produce so many shows now. I don't remember you trashing Scott Rudin or Harvey Weinstein. 

We need more diverse (I believe Ken is Indian American) independent producers

 

[dan94]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 5:37pm

I have to say I was expecting to HATE Colton Ryan based on the press material NYNY did so far. Went to see the show and couldn't have been more impressed with him. I wouldn't count him out, and if he gets good reviews I think he could even win.

[Jeff Tupolski]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 6:28pm

Musical Actor is competitive, but the most interesting race to me is Featured Actor. I feel like Creel, Cooley, Matarazzo, Del Aguila, Donica, and Grayson all have a good shot at winning.

[gibsons2]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 6:40pm

dan94 said: "I have to say I was expecting to HATE Colton Ryan based on the press material NYNY did so far. Went to see the show and couldn't have been more impressed with him. I wouldn't count him out, and if he gets good reviews I think he could even win."

Agreed! He is incredibly sincere and heartbreaking in NY, NY. Very spot on casting for this particular musical and role. Anna Uzele, on the other hand... ooof....

Updated On: 3/29/23 at 06:40 PM

[gibsons2]

Posted: 3/29/23 at 6:45pm

JSquared2 said: "bwayphreak234 said: "Having seen Borle, Burnap, Ghee, Groban, James, Platt, and Swenson, I would hands down give it to Burnap. His Arthur is truly magnificent."



Funny, but having seen all of these performances, I would rank Burnap dead last (in fact I wouldn't even nominate him). I saw the 2nd preview -- so hopefully he's improved since then.

That what makes it a horse race!

"

I had the same impression. He gave a very low energy performance when I saw him. I felt he didn't want to be there and there wasn't much chemistry between him and Philippa (who was magnificent). Maybe he had a bad day or something, but yeah... Based on what I saw he's on the bottom of my list. I haven't seen Swenson though and have yet to see Platt.

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 3/30/23 at 1:16pm

What are the predictions for Best Play?

I have right now:

Leopoldstadt

Life of Pi

Prima Facie

Fat Ham

Between Riverside and Crazy

[BJR]

Posted: 3/30/23 at 1:20pm

I feel like Leopoldstadt has it in the bag.

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 3/30/23 at 1:29pm

Having seen all the new musicals at this point, I think Best Musical is definitely going to Kimberly Akimbo. I thought New York, New York might give it a run for its money, but having seen New York, New York last night, there's not even a chance.

[pethian]

Posted: 3/30/23 at 3:04pm

bwayphreak234 said: "Having seen all the new musicals at this point, I think Best Musical is definitely going to Kimberly Akimbo. I thought New York, New York might give it a run for its money, but having seen New York, New York last night, there's not even a chance."

 

When I speak to fellow theater lovers who are not necessarily in the business, they agree; KA has a lock on it. But when I speak to people who are or work for theater professionals, I hear it's SLIH. 

 

[vfd88]

Posted: 3/30/23 at 3:09pm

One thing is for certain, and that's that I don't think any of the Into the Woods actors are winning. Voters are really allergic to awarding actors from closed musicals - the last one to do it was Martin Short for Little Me way back in 1999. I remember when plenty were predicting Sharon D. Clarke last year, and this rule still held true.