Posted: 3/25/23 at 11:26pm
I really think Some Like It Hot will win Best Musical and Parade for Best Musical Revival. Leopoldstadt for Best Play and Piano Lesson for Best Play Revival. Based upon the excellence of these productions and how I think voters will vote.
Posted: 3/26/23 at 12:13am
I'll eat my hat if Tommy Kail and Josh Groban win.
Posted: 3/26/23 at 12:51am
Still curious whether New York, New York will be eligible for score, but if it is and it is nominated, Fred Ebb would probably get a posthumous nomination like Howard Ashman did for both The Little Mermaid and Aladdin.
Posted: 3/26/23 at 2:22am
getatme said: "I'll eat my hat if Tommy Kail and Josh Groban win."
Does anyone still eat their hat? 
Sorry couldn't resist thinking of Elaine Stritch here.
Posted: 3/26/23 at 3:35pm
Biggest potential upsets to my predictions being:
Best Musical - Some Like it Hot
Best Revival of a Musical - Parade
Best Revival of a Play - A Doll's House OR The Piano Lesson
Best Featured Actor in a Musical - Alex Newell
Best Leading Actor in a Play - Hiran Abeysekera
Best Leading Actress in a Play - Jessica Chastain
Best Direction of a Musical - Michael Arden
Still, I feel pretty confident with my first predictions.
Posted: 3/26/23 at 3:47pm
HeyMrMusic said: "Still curious whetherNew York, New Yorkwill be eligible for score, but if it is and it is nominated, Fred Ebb would probably get a posthumous nomination like Howard Ashman did for bothThe Little MermaidandAladdin."
That’s what would be crazy and if I were other composers this season I would be furious. It’s one thing if Kander and Miranda get nominated for their work on the additional material, but how did Ebb contribute anything original to the score for written specifically for the stage adaptation that occurred almost 20 years after his passing. If I were the nominating committee I would require proof that Ebb was actively working on the stage adaptation and his contributions before even considering him eligible for a nomination.
Posted: 3/26/23 at 3:53pm
Posted: 3/26/23 at 3:58pm
So right now do we think it’s between Kimberly Akimbo and….? what’s the other contender for Musical? Im blanking on what people think is up against it
Edit: &Juliet?? maybe??
Updated On: 3/26/23 at 03:58 PM
Posted: 3/26/23 at 4:07pm
hearthemsing22 said: "So right now do we think it’s between Kimberly Akimbo and….? what’s the other contender for Musical? Im blanking on what people think is up against it
Edit: &Juliet?? maybe??"
There are nine options for Best Musical this season:
& Juliet
Almost Famous
Bad Cinderella
A Beautiful Noise
Kimberly Akimbo
KPOP
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
Posted: 3/26/23 at 4:11pm
I've been trying to post my thoughts on New York, New York in the previews thread for it but have been receiving a weird spam error message every time I do so, so I guess I'll share my takeaway here as it relates to awards season.
I was blown away by the show. I had no idea what to expect from it, but I was thoroughly impressed. I thought it was leagues better than Some Like It Hot. Not even close.
I would still personally vote for & Juliet for Best Musical, but knowing what Tony voters typically go for, I would much rather see New York, New York win over Hot, and even over Akimbo, which I've said a few times that I found to be extremely underwhelming and underbaked.
Posted: 3/26/23 at 4:12pm
hearthemsing22 said: "So right now do we think it’s between Kimberly Akimbo and….? what’s the other contender for Musical? Im blanking on what people think is up against it
Edit: &Juliet?? maybe??"
Up until March I would of said Some Like it Hot as the big budget crowd pleaser to Kimberly Akimbo’s prestige, but the positive buzz out of New York, New York’s first previews think they might split the big splashy musical vote, making Shucked the dark horse. As it currently stands & Juliet is the show that should just be happy if it gets the 5th nomination slot.
Posted: 3/26/23 at 4:14pm
bdn223 said: "Up until March I would of said Some Like it Hot as the big budget crowd pleaser to Kimberly Akimbo’s prestige, but the positive buzz out of New York, New York’s first previews think they might split the big splashy musical vote, making Shucked the dark horse. As it currently stands & Juliet is the show that should just be happy if it gets the 5th nomination slot."
I will eat my hat if Shucked gets nominated for Best Musical and & Juliet doesn't.
Posted: 3/26/23 at 4:21pm
ElephantLoveMedley said: "bdn223 said: "Up until March I would of said Some Like it Hot as the big budget crowd pleaser to Kimberly Akimbo’s prestige, but the positive buzz out of New York, New York’s first previews think they might split the big splashy musical vote, making Shucked the dark horse. As it currently stands & Juliet is the show that should just be happy if it gets the 5th nomination slot."
I will eat my hat ifShuckedgets nominated for Best Musical and& Julietdoesn't."
There are 5 nominations slots this year due to 9 new musicals opening during the season. But if there were only 4 I hope your hate is made of corn so it tastes good...😅
Posted: 3/26/23 at 5:49pm
It's such an exciting year because the race is wide open.
I loved KM & SLIH - have not seen New York, NY or Shucked yet......going in the next few weeks.
I would vote for Parade to win best revival after seeing Sweeney.
Posted: 3/27/23 at 8:33am
ElephantLoveMedley said: "I've been trying to post my thoughts onNew York, New York in the previews thread for it but have been receiving a weird spam error message every time I do so, so I guess I'll share my takeaway here as it relates to awards season.
I was blown away by the show. I had no idea what to expect from it, but I was thoroughly impressed.I thought it was leagues better thanSome Like It Hot. Not even close.
I would still personally vote for& Julietfor Best Musical, but knowing what Tony voters typically go for, I would much rather see New York, New Yorkwin over Hot, and even overAkimbo, which I've said a few times that I found to be extremely underwhelming and underbaked."
I put my ticket for New York New York up for resale, but now that I've heard such good things about it I think I have to cancel that!
Posted: 3/27/23 at 6:57pm
Even though both Diamond and Ashford got great notes, I can't see them beating Clark.
I think Platt is somehow ahead of Groban? But maybe both are behind Ghee. I don't know.
I don't think Groban can win, even if Sweeney like takes revival.
Also, the one category that I don't know who is the winner is Direction of a Musical. Like, maybe Kail, but I'm not sure. Can Parade take Revival, Actor and Director?
Posted: 3/27/23 at 7:30pm
HeyMrMusic said: "Still curious whetherNew York, New Yorkwill be eligible for score, ...."
I don't see how. The score must be over 50% original. Just based on the songs listed/mentioned in the NYNY thread on this forum, it sure sounds like well over half the score is Kander and Ebb catalog.
Posted: 3/28/23 at 8:35pm
Anyone know when this years Tony nominations will be announced and when the voting committee needs to have their votes in by?
Posted: 3/28/23 at 8:37pm
Robbie2 said: "Anyone know when this years Tony nominations will be announced and when the voting committee needs to have their votes in by?
"
The Tony nominations are currently expected to be announced on May 2.
Posted: 3/29/23 at 9:22am
Based solely on buzz/chatter, it felt before like Ghee was the strong favourite to win but has now been overtaken by Platt and Groban. Is this an upswing that will continue till the Tony's? Or just an excited flush from their recent openings?
Posted: 3/29/23 at 9:26am
I do not see Platt winning.
Posted: 3/29/23 at 9:59am
Platt's performance is just serviceable. I won't be surprised if he doesn't get a nomination but I am sure he will.
Posted: 3/29/23 at 10:03am
I honestly think this is Groban's year to win the Lead Actor Tony. Platt will definitely get a nomination, but I haven't seen him in Parade yet, so I can't make a comparison just yet. Groban just blew me away as Sweeney Todd. I was skeptical about him at first, but he made such a beautiful connection to the character that I can't even explain it!
Posted: 3/29/23 at 10:12am
I also think that this award is Groban's to lose. And I say that as someone who typically detests Platt but thought he was extraordinary in Parade, as well as someone who thought that Ghee was one of the best parts of an otherwise terrible show. Groban is vocally staggering, and I thought his acting was unique in a refreshing way.
I personally think nominations are all but guaranteed for those three men (Ghee, Groban, and Platt). This leaves the other two nomination spots open to Christian Borle, Andrew Burnap, Brian D'Arcy James, Casey Likes, Colton Ryan, and Will Swenson.
What are our thoughts on how those remaining nominations will play out? I would personally nominate Burnap and D'Arcy James.
Posted: 3/29/23 at 10:33am
ElephantLoveMedley said: "I also think that this award is Groban's to lose. And I say that as someone who typically detests Platt but thought he was extraordinary inParade, as well as someone who thought that Ghee was one of the best parts of an otherwise terrible show. Groban is vocally staggering, and I thought his acting was unique in a refreshing way.
I personally think nominations are all but guaranteed for those three men (Ghee, Groban, and Platt). This leaves the other two nomination spots open to Christian Borle, Andrew Burnap, Brian D'Arcy James, Casey Likes, Colton Ryan, and Will Swenson.
What are our thoughts on how those remaining nominations will play out? I would personally nominate Burnap and D'Arcy James."
It feels like Burnap and James are the most likely, but I also for some reason have a feeling they're going to like A Beautiful Noise much more than we're anticipating, which leads me to think Swenson will get in. Would not at all be shocked if we get 6 nominees since the vote for this category seems like it's going to be very, very close.
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