WAY TOO EARLY 2023 Tony Award Predictions — Page 7

It's pretty remarkable how strong this season is shaping up to be for Featured Actress in a Musical. What an embarrassment of riches:

• Anika Larsen (Almost Famous)
• Robyn Hurder (A Beautiful Noise)
• Melanie La Barrie (& Juliet)
• Julia Lester (Into the Woods)
• Alli Mauzey (Kimberly Akimbo)
• Patina Miller (Into the Woods)
• Bonnie Milligan (Kimberly Akimbo)
• Phillipa Soo (Into the Woods)
• Natasha Yvette Williams (Some Like It Hot)
• Betsy Wolfe (& Juliet)

Other question marks:

• Adrianna Hicks (Some Like It Hot; not sure if she’ll be put in leading or featured)
• Solea Pfeiffer (Almost Famous; not sure if she’ll be put in leading or featured)
• Whoever is cast as The Stepmother (Bad Cinderella)

Updated On: 11/1/22 at 02:36 PM

(double post)

I know the production as a whole has received lukewarm responses, but Casey Likes is doing some marvelous work in Almost Famous. Any chance he can sneak into the Best Actor race?

I’m assuming Luna will be the only leading contender in KPOP. She’s the only central character with no male counterpart. (I’d add Jully Lee to the potential Featured Actress in a Musical list.)

MadsonMelo said: "CONTENDERS

- ACTOR IN A MUSICAL:

Stark Sands - & Juliet

Will Swenson - A Beautiful Noise

Casey Likes - Almost Famous

Christian Borle - Some Like It Hot

J. Harrison Ghee - Some Like It Hot

Josh Groban - Sweeney Todd

Brian Darcy James - Into the Woods

Andrew Burnap - Camelot

Jordan Dornica - Camelot

New York, New York - Male Lead

KPOP - ?



- ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL:

Lorna Courtney - & Juliet

Luna - KPOP

Sara Bareilles - Into the Woods

Patina Miller - Into the Woods

Victoria Clark - Kimberly Akimbo

Linedy Genao - Bad Cinderella

Adrianna Hicks - Some Like It Hot

Phillipa Soo - Camelot

Annaleigh Ashford - Sweeney Todd

New York, New York - Female Lead



Am I missing someone? I believe Hicks will be lead, and Pfeiffer will be featured.

I assume everyone from ''1776'' will be featured, right?"

Crystal Lucas-Perry would be lead for 1776. I’d also think Stark Sands and Jordan Donica would be competing in featured.

Justin Cooley might be going lead lead for Kimberly Akimbo, he got placed there at Outer Critics Circle and Lucille Lortel, though he was in featured at Drama Desk.

WOW, so many shows this season and outstanding performances to choose from - the TONY committe will have a really hard time this year nominating especially in the acting categories in musicals!

Just predicting actors now cause I’m lazy.


Actor in a Play



Adi Dixit - Life of Pi

Corey Hawkins - Topdog/Underdog

Stephen McKinley Henderson - Between Riverside and Crazy

Jefferson Mays - A Christmas Carol

Wendell Pierce - Death of a Salesman



Actress in a Play



Danielle Brooks - The Piano Lesson

Jodie Comer - Prima Facie

Audra McDonald - Ohio State Murders

Laura Linney - Summer, 1976



Actor in a Musical



Andrew Burnap - Camelot

Justin Cooley - Kimberly Akimbo

Brian d’Arcy James - Into the Woods

J. Harrison Ghee - Some Like it Hot

Josh Groban - Sweeney Todd



Actress in a Musical



Annaleigh Ashford - Sweeney Todd

Sara Bareilles - Into the Woods

Victoria Clarke - Kimberly Akimbo

Lorna Courtney - & Juliet

Phillipa Soo - Camelot



Featured Actor in a Play



Victor Almanzar - Between Riverside and Crazy

Greg Mozgala - Cost of Living

David Krumholtz - Leopoldstadt

Brandon Uranowitz - Leopoldstadt

David Zayas - Cost of Living



Featured Actress in a Play



Faye Castelow - Leopoldstadt

Sharon D. Clarke - Death of a Salesman

Liza Colón-Zayas - Between Riverside and Crazy

Katy Sullivan - Cost of Living

Kara Young - Cost of Living



Featured Actor in a Musical



Steven Boyer - Kimberly Akimbo

Hugh Coles - Back to the Future

Gavin Creel - Into the Woods

Kevin Del Aguila - Some Like it Hot

Someone from Sweeney Todd (guessing Toby’s actor)



Featured Actress in a Musical



Alli Mauzey - Kimberly Akimbo

Bonnie Mulligan - Kimberly Akimbo

Phillipa Soo - Into the Woods

Betsy Wolfe - & Juliet

Natasha Yvette Williams - Some Like it Hot

I know Best Musical is typically presented last at the Tonys, but this year feels like Musical Revival should take its spot. The competition looks INSANE already.

With the parade announcement, how does that shake things up in the contenders lists?

I'm intrigued by the possibility of Groban vs Platt competing for best actor again. Platt was the clear frontrunner in 2017, but I think it's tilted in Groban's favour this time. Sweeney is such a meaty and iconic role - looking at the history of productions, it's never not been nominated for best leading actor and has won about half the time. It's the perfect showcase of an actor's talents and having seen Groban play Pierre I have a lot of faith in him bringing a complex and dark take on it.

Meanwhile Platt's star has been dented a bit from the DEH movie fiasco. Parade is also great for showing off skills, and he's got skills, but Parade is dark. It's not a feel good show, it's not fun. I don't see it being particularly successful financially, even if there was an initial burst of interest.

So I give the edge to Groban, right now, though that can always change when we see what the vision of Sweeney Todd is. There's been some interesting casting choices so far and it seems like Kail has a vision. We'll see how it works.

Or Camelot can sweep us all away, who knows.

The Distinctive Baritone said: "For a variety of reasons, I think J. Harrison Ghee is pretty much a lock for lead actor in a musical. I’m sure both Groban and Platt will be nominated though."

Couldn't agree more - it's Ghee's to win, which I am completely satisfied with. And I think the other two (in addition to Groban & Platt) will be Christian Borle and Andrew Burnap, but I'm also not counting out Shucked (which, based on the out-of-town comments I feel might make all of this more exciting/complicated), and New York New York if there's a male lead in that. (Is there? Do we know anything about it at all?) That's not even counting someone like a Will Swenson when those roles tend to always get nominated, or how the Into the Woods cast's eligibilities will be decided. Also, I know others think Justin Cooley will be considered lead but that seems like a weird decision to me - he's clearly featured and frankly could win it given his raves across the board.

I also will be interested to see if/how they handle the fact that we have a few nonbinary contenders this year in nonbinary/nonconfirming roles, which was always hypothetical but is suddenly very real, and it may throw all of these traditional categories for a loop.

I started to make super tentative fake lists - without even knowing anything about some of these new shows that have yet to open, and MAN. What a year!

Obviously, who knows what will happen? That's the fun! Gonna pick who I think will win, not who I want to win!

Best Actress in a musical- Victoria Clark

Best Actress in a play- Jodie Comer

Best Actor in a musical- Josh Groban (based on Natasha)

Best Actor in a play- Brandon Uranowitz

Best Supporting Actress in a musical- Bonnie Mulligan

Best Supporting Actress in a play- Crystal Lucas Perry (the best performance I saw this year)

Best Supporting Actor in a musical- Gavin Creel

Best Supporting Actor in a play- Gregg Mozgala (Is he supporting?)

Will Some Like it Hot last until the Tonys? That would reduce actor chances IMO.

Ben Platt would have to give (another) exceptional career-making performance IMO to beat out the competition and win again so quickly after DEH. It could happen but it would be quite an achievement.

Josh Groban I can see it going so many ways. 1. He delivers vocally (especially in Epiphany) and completely challenges all expectations, winning the award. 2. He delivers a vocally nuanced brooding performance against ‘type’, winning the award (Based on Comet I think he could find so many layers throughout Barber and his Wife, My Friends, Pretty Women, Sweeney’s Johanna etc even if Epiphany is ‘underwhelming’ he’d be forgiven for). Or despite these nuanced efforts people can’t seem to shake the expectation of George Hearn’s epiphany out of their minds and write the whole thing off as ‘underwhelming’ and has no chance (even if no one else including Len Cariou ever actually could do what George Hearn did with the song).

Overall, I guess in line with the thread title it’s still way too early to tell!!

And leave Lea Michele out of the Tony predictions. She might perform, she might present, but no matter how good she is, I don't see her getting a special Tony. Leave that to the TRUE greats (Bernadette, etc)