WAY TOO EARLY 2023 Tony Award Predictions- Page 5

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 10/3/22 at 9:10pm

KevinKlawitter said: "A couple of notes on the Play side of things based on the preview threads (with obligatory caveat being that things could change & the people on these boards don't always mesh taste-wise with critics or Tony voters) John David Washington seems to be highlighted as a standout ofThe Piano Teacher more so than Samuel L. Jackson, and people seem to seeAndre DeShields as being miscast inDeath of a Salesman"

 

The double take I just did! I hope no one tries to adapt The Piano Teacher for the stage...the film is a masterpiece. I can see Van Hove trying to do it.

[KevinKlawitter]

Posted: 10/3/22 at 9:28pm

Dammit, haha. Fix'd

[broadwayfan_7214]

Posted: 10/3/22 at 9:35pm

these are my winner for the musical categories (just winners)

Best Musical - Kimberly Akimbo

Revival - Into The Woods

Actor - Josh Groban in Sweeney Todd

Actress - Victoria Clark in Kimberly Akimbo

Featured Actor - Paul Zsot in & Juliet

Featured Actress - Phillipa Soo - Into The Woods

Direction - 1776

Book - Kimberly Akimbo

Score - Kimberly Akimbo

Costume - & Juliet

Set - Sweeney Todd (Prediction)

Lighting - KPOP

Sound - KPOP

Choreography - KPOP

Orchestrations - Sweeney Todd

Thoughts?

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 10/3/22 at 10:27pm

SWEENEY is using Jonathan Tunick's original orchestrations. Thus, they will be ineligible.

Jeanine Tesori & David Lindsay-Abaire could win Score in a cakewalk. The giant caveat being that there is currently only one opening announced for April.

Sight unseen, I'm curious about the Choreo field. There could be a number of first-time nominees, and at least two choreographers are doing double-duty this year (Steven Hoggett for Neil Diamond and Sweeney, and then Jennifer Webber for KPOP and &Juliet), then there's Some Like It Hot (Casey Nicholaw), Bad Cindy (JoAnn Hunter), Almost Famous (Sarah O'Gleby & Lorin Lattaro), and BTTF (Chris Bailey).

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 10/3/22 at 10:35pm

I believe O'Gleby is the only credited choreographer for the Broadway run of Almost Famous, Ermengarde. Latarro did choreo for the San Diego tryout pre-pandemic.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 10/3/22 at 10:42pm

EDSOSLO858 said: "I believe O'Gleby is the only credited choreographer for the Broadway run ofAlmost Famous, Ermengarde. Latarro did choreo for the San Diego tryout pre-pandemic."

Ah –– LL was listed as Additional Chreo on PlaybillVault earlier in the week, but not anymore! Things move quick around here.

Wonder what Michael Balderrama's role as "Creative Consultant" is on the show? That title can mean a thousand things but often means ghost-director/choreographer. (and the director, Jeremy Herrin, is not known for musicals)

[dwirth]

Posted: 10/3/22 at 11:43pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "SWEENEY is using Jonathan Tunick's original orchestrations. Thus, they will be ineligible."

Tunick's original and unmatched Sweeney orchestrations pre-dated the "Best Orchestrations" Tony by nearly 20 years.. Are they still not eligible, given they were not originally eligible in 1979 - nor were they used for either Broadway revival? 

 

[sethepstein12]

Posted: 10/4/22 at 8:26am

What is everyone thinking about Leopoldstadt's chances? Personally, I have a hard time seeing a world in which Brandon Uranowitz and David Krumholtz are not nominated for their respective categories (presumably Lead for Uranowitz and Featured for Krumholtz).

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 10/4/22 at 8:52am

Leopoldstadt gives me Lehman vibes and that obviously did quite well last season. 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 10/4/22 at 10:06am

Right now, Into the Woods has all the hype, but the reality is it will have been closed for 5 months before the Tonys and many voters will have seen it almost a full year before they're voting. Given that no closed show has every won Best Revival of a Musical in the almost 30 years since they split the categories and we have at least two other big revivals (Sweeney and Camelot) coming in the Spring, I can't imagine Woods actually having much of a chance, unless those two are complete flops.

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 10/4/22 at 3:59pm

I don't find Leopoldstat to give off Lehman vibes at all. Lehman Trilogy was a marriage of a great acting gimmick, grand design work, and ingenious directing. It was also a hit when it comes to ticket sales. Leopoldstadt is wonderful, but is a much different type of play. 

It's main hurdle is the fact that the entire cast is likely competing in the featured categories together. Maybe one could make the argument for Krumholtz as Lead Actor, but I suspect the whole cast will be put in featured. I would say the best chances for acting nominations are Krumholtz, Uranowitz, Faye Castelow, and Arty Froushan. I can see the period costumes getting nominated, but it's an unlikely contender for other design categories. So at this point in the season, I'd say it probably looking at a 5-6 nomination haul: Play, Director, Costume Design, and 2-3 acting noms.

[KevinKlawitter]

Posted: 10/16/22 at 12:23pm

Now that we have a slightly better handle on what the season looks like (apologies for inevitable category confusion)...

Best Musical

• & Juliet
• Kimberly Akimbo
• KPOP
• New York, New York
• Some Like it Hot
  • on deck: Almost Famous, Sing Street

Best Musical Revival

• Camelot
• Into the Woods
• Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

​​​​​​​Best Play

• Ain't No Mo'
• Between Riverside and Crazy
• Cost of Living
• Leopoldstadt
• Prima Facie
  • ​​​​​​​on deck: The Thanksgiving Play, Summer, 1976

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Best Play Revival

• Death of a Salesman
• Ohio State Murders
• The Piano Lesson
  • ​​​​​​​on deck: Topdog/Underdog

Best Actress in a Musical:

• Annaleigh Ashford - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
• Adrienne Hicks - Some Like it Hot
• Sarah Barielles - Into the Woods
• Luna - KPOP
• Victoria Clark - Kimberly Akimbo
  • ​​​​​​​on deck: Solea Pfeiffer - Almost Famous, Lorna Courtney - & Juliet, Guinevere tbd - Camelot, lead tbd - New York, New York

Best Actor in a Musical

• Christian Borle - Some Like it Hot
• Josh Groban - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
• Brian D'Arcy James - Into the Woods
• Will Swanson - A Beautiful Noise: the Neil Diamond Musical
• Arthur tbd - Camelot
  • ​​​​​​​on deck: J. Harrison Ghee - Some Like it Hot, Casey Likes - Almost Famous, lead tbd - New York, New York

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Best Featured Actress in a Musical:

• Anika Larsen - Almost Famous
• Betsy Wolfe - & Juliet
• BoHyung - KPOP
• Bonnie Mulligan - Kimberly Akimbo
• Natasha Yvette Williams - Some Like it Hot
  • on deck: Alli Mauzey - Kimberly Akimbo, Melanie LaBerrie - & Juliet, Phillipa Soo & Patina Miller - Into the Woods 

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Best Featured Actor in a Musical:

• Steven Boyer - Kimberly Akimbo
• Gavin Creel - Into the Woods
• Zachary Noah Piser - KPOP
• Lancelot tbd - Camelot
• Paulo Szot - & Juliet
  • ​​​​​​​on deck: Anthony & Turpin tbd - Sweeney Todd: the Demon Barber of Fleet Street, Mordred tbd - Camelot,  Eddy Lee & Kevin Woo - KPOP

Best Actor in a Play:

• Gabriel Byrne - Walking With Ghosts
• Wendell Pierce - Death of a Salesman
• Brandon Urbanowitz - Leopoldstadt
• Jeremy Pope - The Collaboration
• John David Washington - The Piano Lesson
  • on deck: Stephen McKinley Henderson  - Between Riverside & Crazy, Jefferson Mays - A Christmas Carol, Paul Bettany - The Collaboration, David Zayas - Cost of Living

Best Actress in a Play:

• Danielle Brooks - The Piano Lesson
• Sharon D. Clarke - Death of a Salesman
• Jodie Comer - Prima Facie
• Laura Linney - Summer, 1976
• Audra MacDonald - Ohio State Murders
  • ​​​​​​​on deck: Kara Young, Cost of Living, actress tbd The Thanksgiving Play

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Best Featured Actor in a Play:

• Common - Between Riverside & Crazy
• Andre DeShields - Death of a Salesman
• Samuel L. Jackson - The Piano Lesson
• David Krumholtz - Leopoldstadt
• Gregg Mozgala - Cost of Living
  • on deck: Khris David - Death of a Salesman

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Best Featured Actress in a Play:

• Betsy Aidem - Leopoldsadt
• Rosal Colon - Between Riverside & Crazy
• Crystal Lucas-Perry - Ain't No Mo'
• Katy Sullivan - Cost of Living
• actress tbd - Summer, 1976

Updated On: 10/16/22 at 12:23 PM

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 10/16/22 at 3:32pm

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "I don't find Leopoldstat to give off Lehman vibes at all. Lehman Trilogy was a marriage of a great acting gimmick, grand design work, and ingenious directing. It was also a hit when it comes to ticket sales. Leopoldstadt is wonderful, but is a much different type of play.

It's main hurdle is the fact that the entire cast is likely competing in the featured categories together. Maybe one could make the argument for Krumholtz as Lead Actor, but I suspect the whole cast will be put in featured. I would say the best chances for acting nominations are Krumholtz, Uranowitz, Faye Castelow, and Arty Froushan. I can see the period costumes getting nominated, but it's an unlikely contender for other design categories. So at this point in the season, I'd say it probably looking at a 5-6 nomination haul: Play, Director, Costume Design, and 2-3 acting noms."

I'm not saying the plays are really so similar, it's more that it's a prestige epic play about Jewish history that attracts a very upper-class New York (often Jewish) crowd and seems to be turning into a box office hit. 

[Smaxie]

Posted: 10/16/22 at 5:35pm

TBD, but Elizabeth Franz and Linda Emond were nominated in the Featured Actress in a Play category for their Linda Lomans for the last two Broadway revivals of Death of a Salesman (and Franz won). 

[KevinKlawitter]

Posted: 10/16/22 at 6:04pm

Smaxie said: "TBD, but Elizabeth Franz and Linda Emond were nominated in the Featured Actress in a Play category for their Linda Lomans for the last two Broadway revivals of Death of a Salesman (and Franz won)."

Given how comparatively sparse Featured Actress in a Play is compared to the other acting categories, if Clarke goes Featured that Tony will probably be signed, sealed and delivered.

[RWPrincess]

Posted: 10/17/22 at 8:32pm

I know the season is stacked with great plays but I really hope that The Kite Runner isn't forgotten.

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 10/18/22 at 9:21am

RWPrincess said: "I know the season is stacked with great plays but I really hope that The Kite Runner isn't forgotten."

I think it will be simply because reviewers did not think it was a great play. 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 10/18/22 at 12:27pm

I didn't know Brooks was a lead in PIANO LESSON.

The category seems weak, two contenders from shows that will only open in April and one contender that it's likely to be placed in featured.

If Audra gets one more nomination, she will tie with Chita and Julie Harris as the most nominated performer of all time. She will surely be the most nominated in a few years.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 10/18/22 at 1:01pm

MadsonMelo said: "I didn't know Brooks was a lead in PIANO LESSON. The category seems weak, two contenders from shows that will only open in April and one contender that it's likely to be placed in featured."

I would be shocked if they put Danielle Brooks in lead. It's very much a supporting role. But you're right that –– so far –– it is a weak category based on shows announced, with only Jodie Comer, Audra, Laura Linney, and MAYBE Sharon D. Clarke (depending on category placement). Is Katy Sullivan a lead in Cost of Living?

Updated On: 10/18/22 at 01:01 PM

[JoeW4]

Posted: 10/18/22 at 2:44pm

I agree Danielle Brooks could go either way, but I’d push back on the idea that it’s “very much a supporting role.” Not only is it a decent-sized role in terms of stage time, but the entire journey of the play hinges on her character arc. I’d say she and Washington are like dual protagonists, in conflict with each other. He probably has more stage time, but I’d argue she’s actually more important to the overall story.

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 10/18/22 at 5:25pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "MadsonMelo said: "I didn't know Brooks was a lead in PIANO LESSON.The category seems weak, two contenders from shows that will only open in April and one contender that it's likely to be placed in featured."

I would be shocked if they put Danielle Brooks in lead. It's very much a supporting role. But you're right that –– so far –– it is a weak category based on shows announced, with onlyJodie Comer, Audra, Laura Linney, and MAYBE Sharon D. Clarke (depending on category placement).Is Katy Sullivan a lead in Cost of Living?"

To be fair, S. Epatha Merkerson was nominated in featured, so I guess they will push the same for Danielle.

If Sharon D. Clarke is also featured, this means we only have these contenders?

- Audra McDonald, Ohio States Murders

- Laura Linney, Summer, 1976

- Jodie Comer, Prima Facie

That's more barren than I tought.

Leopoldstadt and The Kite Runner doesnt have female leads, right?

Maybe Cost of Living? Lulu is supporting in ''Between Riverside'' as I know.

If things are so sparse, maybe Sharon will be in lead after all.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 10/18/22 at 5:32pm

dwirth said: "Tunick's original and unmatched Sweeney orchestrations pre-dated the "Best Orchestrations" Tony by nearly 20 years.. Are they still not eligible, given they were not originally eligible in 1979 - nor were they used for either Broadway revival?”

ineligible. They were not written for this revival. The Tonys could use this  as an opportunity to give him a lifetime achievement award while he is with us

 

[KevinKlawitter]

Posted: 10/18/22 at 6:18pm

MadsonMelo said: "ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "MadsonMelo said: "I didn't know Brooks was a lead in PIANO LESSON.The category seems weak, two contenders from shows that will only open in April and one contender that it's likely to be placed in featured."

I would be shocked if they put Danielle Brooks in lead. It's very much a supporting role. But you're right that –– so far –– it is a weak category based on shows announced, with onlyJodie Comer, Audra, Laura Linney, and MAYBE Sharon D. Clarke (depending on category placement).Is Katy Sullivan a lead in Cost of Living?"

To be fair,S. Epatha Merkerson was nominated in featured, so I guess they will push the same for Danielle.

If Sharon D. Clarke is also featured, this means we only have these contenders?

- Audra McDonald, Ohio States Murders

- Laura Linney, Summer, 1976

- Jodie Comer, Prima Facie

That's more barren than I tought.

Leopoldstadt and The Kite Runner doesnt have female leads, right?

Maybe Cost of Living? Lulu is supporting in ''Between Riverside'' as I know.

If things are so sparse, maybe Sharon will be in lead after all."

Maybe someone more familiar with the play can clarify this, but maybe Crystal Lucas-Perry or Fedna Jacquet from Ain't No Mo' could contend in Actress.

[JoeW4]

Posted: 10/18/22 at 7:43pm

Ain’t No Mo is very much an ensemble piece. From what I remember I don’t think there’s any role that you could really make a case for being the lead. They all play multiple characters, except Jordan Cooper, but he only appears in interstitial scenes as kind of a framing device - it’s not really a leading role either. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 10/18/22 at 11:05pm

Actually, on second thought, considering the way this revival of SALESMAN ends, I think you could make an argument that Clarke is a Lead. But it could go either way, it's all up to the producers.