WAY TOO EARLY 2023 Tony Award Predictions — Page 8

kdogg36 said: "Alex M said: "With the amount of revivals we are getting this season I very interested as to what will happen at the Tonys. I guess its hard to say since no one has seen three of them yet."

Actually four (at least) - it seems like just about everyone has forgotten about Dancin'."



Wasn’t Danin’ included in those 3? 6 musical revivals eligible, 3 of which have been seen (Parade, ITW, 1776) and 3 which haven’t (Dancin’, Camelot, Sweeney). Am I forgetting another one?

Updated On: 1/12/23 at 07:22 PM

Any word on whether Micaela Diamond will be for Lead or Featured Actress in a musical? I’m not entirely sure how all of that works. From an outsider, I would think her chances of winning are better in supporting…

Observation said: "Any word on whether Micaela Diamond will be for Lead or Featured Actress in a musical? I’m not entirely sure how all of that works. From an outsider, I would think her chances of winning are better in supporting…"

I would assume she'll be leading. She's above the title, plus Carolee Carmello wss considered leading for the original. So there's always a chance they'll do something unexpected, but most likely she'll remain in lead.

It is a really crowded season in the acting categories. For me, so far, I like Justin Cooley for Leading Male in a musical. He has created a role in an original musical and is giving an absolutely amazing performance. It was one of those "just give him the Tony" performances for me. But I am sure we are, or hopefully are, in for some really good performances to come. I feel this is one of the most exciting seasons, all the way around, in a long time. JMO

Updated On: 1/15/23 at 11:48 PM

He probably won't have a chance in Leading....dont think he has a lot of solo songs?

uncageg said: "It is a really crowded season in the acting categories. For me, so far, I like Justin Cooley for Leading Male in a musical. He has created a role in an original musical and is giving an absolutely amazing performance. It was one of those "just give him the Tony" performances for me. But I am sure we are, or hopefully are, in for some really good performances to come. I feel this is one of the most exciting seasons, all the way around, in a long time. JMO"

You need 9 eligible to have 5 nominees. 8 or below = 4 nominees.

Feels like that's up in the air right now. A LOT of the “leading” roles here could, theoretically, go supporting. Seems like the only absolutely sure things for eligibility are Chastain, McDonald, and Comer.

Can anyone who saw Room in one of its previous runs comment on whether Ma is really a lead? I know she was in the film, but sounds like this adaptation is maybe more focused on this kid? (Frankly I thought the kid in the movie also should’ve been considered a lead).

What about Zoe Wanamaker? I seem to recall someone in that thread saying she doesn’t have much to do in the show.

And Summer 1976 hasn’t premiered anywhere yet, has it?

The rest seem like they’re all up in the air.

Linda Loman has historically gone supporting, but we’ll see.

In Cost of Living, i’d argue Kara Young is more of a lead than Katy Sullivan, particularly because of the final scene.

Thanksgiving Play (IIRC from seeing it 4 years ago) is a true ensemble piece between 2 men and 2 women. So it could go either way.

For Piano Lesson, I’d argue Danielle Brooks is a co-lead with Washington, but could go either way.

Is there a female lead in Good Night Oscar?

Anyway, all that’s to say, it’s too early to know whether there will be 4 or 5 nominees. Feels like it’ll be right on the cusp. But between all the possibilities, I'm guessing they'll scrape together 9 eligible contenders. Especially because several of the ones I speculated about are most likely going to be considered leads.

Emily Bergl ---June Levant is who I see listed in Good Night Oscar but of course I'm not sure how big that role is

Call_me_jorge said: "Call_me_jorge said: "Can anyone explain why we haven’t had an eligibility ruling, so far, this season? Have they just not been able to gather up the committee?"

This is totally without any insider info, but I’m gonna guess the tony awards committee is going to get rid of gendered performance categories. That’s why it’s taking so long to figure out the eligibility rulings."

It is most likely too late for them to do this for the 2022-2023 season, if they were going to make any changes it would've had to theoretically been announced between April and June of last year. It would be a case of changing the rules after the game has already begun at this point, which I cannot even fathom the amount of outrage would cause amongst unions and producers. Unlike the Outer Critics Circle, the Tony Awards can make someone's career so any changes like what was done at the OCCs will likely have to have a separate working group of members to figure out a solution too that can make everyone happy. In that scenario I would expect the American Theater Wing to at least announce that they were forming a committee to look into being gender inclusive in the awards to give producers the slightest heads up that this were a possibility.

I do wonder why we they have yet to even schedule an eligibility meeting, as those are typically announced in advance.

Given the move just made by the Outer Critics Circle AND the fact that there are non-binary actors in at least two principal, awards-bait roles on Broadway this season, I don't think the Tonys have much of a choice. They have to go genderless starting this year, and I'm betting they will.

To preface: I'm nonbinary, and absolutely would love for the Tony Awards to remove gendered categories. I think they will be forced by circumstance to make the change soon, whether they want to or not.

However, I do feel like the change needs to be made carefully. There has been some controversy with other acting awards that have removed gendered categories, because they have started giving awards disproportionately to men. Unfortunately, we still live in a world where a lot of the meatiest, most complex roles are written by and for men, and subconscious bias from awards committees also plays a role, I suspect. To be fair, this is less of an issue in musical theatre than in film/TV (or even straight plays).

Again, to be crystal clear, I think this change needs to happen. I just wonder whether certain additional protocols and guidelines will need to be put in place to make it fair for everyone.

I highly doubt that the Tonys would make a mid-season change to the categories. Of course, the Tonys have a habit of making up rules as they go, so I could be proven wrong, but I have particular experience here that leads me to believe the decision to introduce genderless acting categories will be MUCH more drawn out.

I was in conversation with members of a certain queer critics group who recently adopted gender neutral categories. And let me tell you, you would not believe the amount of pushback it got. And this is from a group of all queer people. And they were even presented with a study which showed that the feared outcome of only awarding men in all-gender acting categories has not come to pass in awards organizations which have adopted all-gendered categories. There are a great many traditionalists in the entertainment industry who cannot imagine letting go of "Best Actor" and "Best Actress." And there are many women in the industry who fear that progress they've made in terms of their power and visibility in the industry will be threatened with such a move. These were enormous road blocks in a group made of entirely of queer people. Imagine the greater pushback in a general awards group? I think the "Big 4" EGOT award-givers will be the very last groups to use all-gender acting categories, if they ever do. It will take every other smaller group around them to change first. So if the Tonys suddenly announce this week that they are going gender neutral, I will be delighted, but very surprised.