Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread — Page 24

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#576

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/10/19 at 5:26pm

My understanding, which is quite probably wrong, is that voters shouldn’t even vote from the complete list of nominees unless they’ve seen every eligible nominee. But what I’m not really clear on or have quite possibly forgotten is whether there are two rounds of voting. One where the five nominees are selected in each category and another round where people vote from the five nominees for the eventual winner. Regardless, I believe that all voters are supposed to have seen every eligible production with the original eligible cast. Of course, I believe it’s been discussed here before that there is no way to ensure that actually occurs.

#577

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/10/19 at 5:36pm

Smaxie said: ">the largely-liberal Tony voters HATE Murdoch.<
The same could be said for Roy Cohn, and yet..."

Very true, but it feels a little different when the Problematic Man is still alive and active. (It was also Nathan Lane doing career-best work in a beloved production, in a role that won Ron Liebman a Tony and Al Pacino an Emmy.)

#578

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/10/19 at 5:37pm

Miles2Go2 said: "My understanding, which is quite probably wrong, is that voters shouldn’t even vote from the complete list of nominees unless they’ve seen every eligible nominee. But what I’m not really clear on or have quite possibly forgotten is whether there are two rounds of voting. One where the five nominees are selected in each category and another round where people vote from the five nominees for the eventual winner. Regardless, I believe that all voters are supposed to have seen every eligible production with the original eligible cast. Of course, I believe it’s been discussed here before that there is no way to ensure that actually occurs."

There are definitely two different committees - a nominating committee who determines the list of nominees, and then a different (much bigger) pool of Tony voters who votes from that list. The nominating committee definitely has to see everything, but for the voters... I mean, there are probably many who haven't seen everything that's been nominated. Wondering if that's enforced in any way.

#579

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/10/19 at 5:43pm

Miles2Go2, There is one round of nomination voting, with all 50ish nominators sitting in a room together in late April (but they don't get to discuss opinions). Then, after nominations are announced, ballots are sent out to the ~850 voters, and they vote for 1 person in each category.

From my understanding, there is an online system now (not unlike Letterboxd) where each voter has to log which date they saw each show. That's a new step to try to prove that every voter sees every show. (So if they haven't seen every show, then they shouldn't be voting in that category.)

Updated On: 4/10/19 at 05:43 PM

#580

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/10/19 at 5:43pm

Smaxie said: ">the largely-liberal Tony voters HATEMurdoch.<

The same could be said for Roy Cohn, and yet..."

The same could also be said of Christian Bale’s win at the Golden Globes for playing Dick Cheney in Vice It’s not like any of these shows portray these men in a positive light that would offend liberal voters.

Updated On: 4/10/19 at 05:43 PM

#581

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/10/19 at 5:47pm

Miles2Go2 said: "The same could also be said of Christian Bsle’s win at the Golden Globes for playing Dick Cheney in Vice It’s not like any of these shows portray these men in a positive light that would offend liberal voters."

Right, but the Golden Globes is about 80 foreign journalists -- sort of like winning the Outer Space Critics Circle Award on Broadway. I think there's a reason why Bale didn't win the Oscar for playing Cheney.

Regardless --- all this is hypothetical. Carvel could very well win Featured, and Lithgow could very well be placed in Lead Actor. But we can't really ignore the politics of the situation (the US politics, and the theatre industry politics).

Updated On: 4/10/19 at 05:47 PM

#582

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/10/19 at 5:50pm

Fair point. Of course, Streep won her most recent Oscar for playing Thatcher in a movie that soft peddled her attack on liberal principles.

#583

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/10/19 at 5:52pm

SomethingPeculiar said: "Miles2Go2,There is one round of nomination voting, with all 50ishnominators sitting in a room together in late April (but they don't get to discussopinions). Then, after nominations are announced, ballots are sent out to the ~850 voters, and they vote for 1 person in each category.

From my understanding, there is an online system now (not unlike Letterboxd) where each voter has to log which date they saw eachshow. That's a new step to try to prove that every voter sees every show. (So if they haven't seen every show, then they shouldn't be voting in that category.)"

Thanks, all! No doubt I won’t remember these specificities again next year

#584

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/10/19 at 7:53pm

I would put my money on Beth Leavel landing her second Tony. She's giving the performance of a lifetime at the age of 63. I wouldn't bet against Metcalf either, who also happens to be 63.

"It does what a musical is supposed to do; it takes you to another world. And it gives you a little tune to carry in your head. Something to take you away from the dreary horrors of the real world. A little something for when you're feeling blue. You know?"

#585

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/10/19 at 8:50pm

I agree with this ^

#586

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/10/19 at 10:35pm

It will be interesting to see if Ryan Murphy's recent announcement of "The Prom" film will have a positive effect on both ticket sales and Tony nominations. I'm surely hoping so!

#587

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/10/19 at 11:03pm

I saw Beth on a random Tuesday and she was killed it. Why the show doesn’t featured her more on the marketing is beyond me. They are trying to portray it as a teen/Be more chill show when they need to focus on the 4 character actors who are slaying it. Get the gays in there! Get the women! Etc

#588

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/10/19 at 11:04pm

Unless I missed it earlier I this thread, I find it interesting that there isn't much talk about TO KILL A MOCKINGBIRD.

Just give the world Love. - S. Wonder

#589

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/10/19 at 11:08pm

Smaxie said: ">the largely-liberal Tony voters HATEMurdoch.<

The same could be said for Roy Cohn, and yet..."

Liberals would not reward a glowing portrait of Roy Cohn or Rupert Murdoch; a takedown, however, is a different story. The Roy Cohn character in Angels is a miserable monster and rewarding Lane isn't a reward for Cohn.

Same concept for Murdoch and Carvel, though INK is much less of a takedown. I wasnt impressed with Carvel all that much, and think that will be more determinitive here than the fact that he's portraying an ass.

#590

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/10/19 at 11:46pm

uncageg said: "Unless I missed it earlier I this thread, I find it interesting that there isn't much talk about TO KILL A MOCKINGBIRD."

Not sure how much there is to discuss? It's good. It's probably not winning Best Play, but it could get as many nominations as Ferryman, and at this point Celia K-B is probably the frontrunner for Best Featured Actress.

#591

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/11/19 at 12:08am

uncageg said: "Unless I missed it earlier I this thread, I find it interesting that there isn't much talk about TO KILL A MOCKINGBIRD."

this. i liked this hella lot more than Ferryman, I think Jeff Daniels is in the mix for Best Actor, and it will be an absolute crime if anyone other than Celia Keenan Bolger wins Best Supporting Actress.

#592

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/11/19 at 7:38am

Agreed Celia Keenan Bolger is a shoe in, or should. be at least. Mockibird could still win best play, although I think The Ferryman is the front runner. Big commercial name, maybe road voters will vote for it so when it tours it has even more momentum behind it. We shall see though, I think the Best Play race and Best Revival of a Play are the most interesting categories. Should be a fun and unpredictable show for the most part, unlike last season.

#593

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/11/19 at 10:04am

As far as best play is concerned, I could see the more "traditionalist" voters splitting between TKAM and Ferryman, leaving a clear pathway for What the Constitution Means to Me, particularly if it wins the Pulitzer.

#594

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/11/19 at 10:45am

I think Jeff Daniels actually has a good shot at winning Actor. Cranston won for a similar performance a few years ago, and Daniels is beloved in the theatre industry and has never won (out of multiple noms). Wins for Actor & Featured Actress could be a good way to honor Mockingbird... frankly, that play doesn't need the Tony, it's going to do well around the country regardless.

#595

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/12/19 at 4:46pm

The nominations go to the actors who performed the role on opening night (hence all the drama when Andy Carl was injured in previews in Groundhog Day).

#596

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/12/19 at 4:59pm

*Karl

#597

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/14/19 at 6:41am

In your experience, how much of an effect do the nominations have on box office? Do rushes become impossible once it's nominated for best play/musical? Do they start selling out performances? Or does that only really happen once they've actually won the Tony?

#598

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/14/19 at 11:55pm

tony nominations

Best Musical

Hadestown

Tootsie

Ain't Too Proud – The Life and Times of The Temptations

The Prom

Best Play

To Kill a Mockingbird

What the Constitution Means to Me - It got the best play reviews I have seen from 5 seasons of shows and will win the Pulitzer and hopefully extend

The Ferryman

The Network

the season as a whole I rate as a c+

compared to last years d-

and 2006's A-

#599

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/15/19 at 11:18am

I just can't see be more chill getting nominated for best musical

#600

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

Posted: 4/15/19 at 12:02pm

cymro1604 said: "In your experience, how much of an effect do the nominations have on box office? Do rushes become impossible once it's nominated for best play/musical? Do they start selling out performances? Or does that only really happen once they've actually won the Tony?"

It truly depends on the show. If something like HADESTOWN gets amazing reviews this week and then gets the most Tony nominations, that could make its box office soar. But a struggling show like THE PROM isn't going to go from 48% to 100% just because it's one of 5 Best Musical nominees. There's a lot of wealth to be spread around, and the press coverage will focus on the shows with the most nominations, historic things, celebrities, and "snubs."

A win for Best Musical + a great performance on the telecast is the biggest Box Office boost. A Best Musical win is the only award that can really be monetized.

For further proof of the randomness, here's what 6 shows did week before noms / week of noms / week after noms ---

Band's Visit (11 noms) --- $908,565 / $-117,625 / +$81,407
Angels in America (11 noms) --- $921,368 / $-104,181 / +$110,779
Come From Away (7 noms) --- $1,071,386 / +$26,694 / +$29,770
Great Comet (12 noms) --- $937,564 / $-61,841 / +$301,606
Bright Star (5 noms) --- $369,471 / +$46,891 / +$60,696
King and I (9 noms) --- $981,217 / +$17,170 / $-46,855

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