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Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread- Page 23

Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread

SomethingPeculiar Profile Photo
SomethingPeculiar
#550Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 12:31am

I don't think it's a bad thing going forward to have 5 nominees per category. It gives more shows a shot at recognition.

We've all been discounting them because of fall openings, but The Cher Show and Pretty Woman could have just as much of a chance at the 5th slot as BMC and Beetlejuice. Unless the nominators are giving points for originality, then BMC has a slight leg up.

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Miles2Go2
#551Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 12:42am

I haven’t seen anybody the season’s new musicals since most opened after my last trip so consider this with a grain of salt, but from reports/reviews I think it’ll be:

Hadestown
Tootsie
The Prom
Ain’t Too Proud
Beetlejuice or The Cher Show (if there is even a fifth slot. Don’t there have to be three votes or less between #4 and #5 for #5 to even get nominated? Seems unlikely unless Beetlejuice gets better than expected reviews. Then again, recent reports are starting to lean more positive. Could this be this year’s Spongebob?).

I don’t think Be More Chill has much of a chance here. Reviews and reports are mixed at best.

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uncageg
#552Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 1:16am

After seeing it tonight, and having seen all of the musicals except Head Over Heels this season, I think Beetlejuice could shake things up. I predict Brightman and Kritzer could get nominated. Wouldn't be surprised if it knocked out Be More Chill or Ain't Too Proud for a Best Musical nomination. Way better than I expected. JMO


Just give the world Love.

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Scarlet Leigh
#553Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 1:40am

SomethingPeculiar said: "I don't think it's a bad thing going forward to have 5 nominees per category. It gives more shows a shot at recognition.

We've all been discounting them because of fall openings, but The Cher Showand Pretty Woman could have just as much of a chance at the5th slot asBMC andBeetlejuice. Unless the nominators are giving points for originality, thenBMChas a slight leg up.
"

Hmmmm I agree that I think Cher Show should not be counted out of that slot but I have to agree to disagree that Pretty Woman has a chance at all. It was pretty universally hated when it was reviewed and being that it opened so long ago, it feels like it's just faded into the background of the exciting spring season we have going on at the moment. They MIGHT have a chance at actor and actress nominations for Barks and Karl but that's pretty much it.

boywonder14
#554Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 2:44am

There will be 5 nominees for Best Musical, so prepare for that. If there are 9 eligible contenders, then there will be 5 nominees, including the design categories through to Best Score and Best Book. This is a carry-over rule from last year that has just recently been confirmed for this season.

 

https://www.goldderby.com/article/2019/2019-tony-awards-expanded-categories/

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Rogerdellibovi
#555Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 8:04am

Thanks for the info boywonder. This really mixes things up. Be More Chill is likely for score and book even if you include a play for a score slot. Who on earth is going to be the book slots other than Hadestown, The Prom, and Tootsie. Even if you include Be More Chill (because at least it’s original), there is still another. Beetlejuice? Ain’t Too Proud (though the book is quite bad)? The fifth Best Musical slot is just going to cause chaos.

JBroadway Profile Photo
JBroadway
#556Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 8:18am

The GoldDerby article has misinterpreted the new rule.

The rule states (paraphrased) that if there are 9 or more eligible candidates, there will only be 4 guaranteed nominees, and a 5th will be added only if the difference in votes between the 4th and 5th place shows is three or fewer. If there are fewer than 9 eligible shows, then those numbers get shifted down by 1: there are 3 automatic nominees, with the possibility of a 4th.

I’m having trouble copying and pasting on my phone, but this is Section 2 (j) (iii) (A) in the rules.

So just because there are 9 or more eligible shows does NOT NECESSARILY mean there will be 5 nominees.

WhizzerMarvin Profile Photo
WhizzerMarvin
#557Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 8:26am

JBroadway is correct. There is not a guaranteed fifth nominee, simply the possibility of one.


Marie: Don't be in such a hurry about that pretty little chippy in Frisco. Tony: Eh, she's a no chip!

Mike Barrett  Profile Photo
Mike Barrett
#558Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 8:30am

Doesn't really change anything. Id be surprised if there is a 5th nominee this season. The potential nominees vs the ones on the cusp are just vastly different in terms of quality Imo from what Ive gathered on here between reviews and what I've listened to from the shows. Id suspect Hadestown, Tootsie, The Prom, and Ain't Too Proud to be our nominees, and will be genuinely shocked if anything else makes it in. 

Rogerdellibovi Profile Photo
Rogerdellibovi
#559Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 8:34am

WhizzerMarvin said: "JBroadway is correct. There is not a guaranteed fifth nominee, simply the possibility of one. "

The Golddeby article really needs to be rewritten because they messed up the facts. Thanks for clarifying! Does anyone know if this was true for every category last year? So because there were 5 nominees for costume design in a musical the votes had to have been within a small number between the 4th and 5th choice? 

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MayAudraBlessYou2
#560Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 9:53am

JBroadway said: "The GoldDerby article has misinterpreted the new rule.

The rule states (paraphrased) that if there are 9 or more eligible candidates, there will only be 4 guaranteed nominees, and a 5th will be added only if the difference in votes between the 4th and 5th place shows is three or fewer. If there are fewer than 9 eligible shows, then those numbers get shifted down by 1: there are 3 automatic nominees, with the possibility of a 4th.

I’m having trouble copying and pasting on my phone, but this is Section 2 (j) (iii) (A) in the rules.

So just because there are 9 or more eligible shows does NOT NECESSARILY mean there will be 5 nominees.
"

This is from the rules on the tony website, but those are the 2017-2018 rules. Doesn't seem like they have updated them.

The ruling they decided on at the end of last season sort of invalidates the rule you are talking about. It was in the last eligibility ruling:

https://www.broadwayworld.com/article/Tony-Awards-Decide-Eligibility-for-CURSED-CHILD-CAROUSEL-MY-FAIR-LADY-More-20180427

"In addition, the Tony Administration Committee determined that in the 26 competitive categories for which there are at least nine candidates, there shall be five nominees in that category."

So the Gold Derby story is correct

JBroadway Profile Photo
JBroadway
#561Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 10:28am

Huh. Interesting. Good catch.

But why wouldn’t the rules have been updated on the official rules page for the 2017-2018 season? That is the season in question, after all.

Also weird: when I looked at that same eligibility ruling (round 4) on the Tony website, there was no mention of that rule change like there was on Broadwayworld

https://www.tonyawards.com/news/tony-awards-eligibility-for-2018-part-4/

I’m not implying that the rule is fake, because if you look at the number of nominees last year in each category it’s consistent with that rule. But can anyone find a source for this that comes straight from the Tony Awards?

MayAudraBlessYou2 Profile Photo
MayAudraBlessYou2
#562Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 10:39am

The Tony Awards website takes forever to update anything. They didn't even update the pages to reflect the current Broadway season until about a week ago. 

The "5 nominee" rule was reported everywhere EXCEPT the Tony Awards website (Broadway.com, Playbill), so I assume it was confirmed via press reps for the Tonys or was in their initial press release. A similar thing happened recently when a reporter confirmed a ruling with a rep and posted it on Twitter after it wasn't in the eligibility determinations. (I cant remember off the top of my head what it was...I think it was maybe about an old play being a revival or not due to the classic rule? Or a score from a play being eligible in score? Does anyone remember? Either last season or the one before it).

In any case, it's definitely a rule now. I imagine the new-ish tie rulings didnt increase the categories as often as producers would like (the administration is full of producers remember. and they want to use the awards to market their projects). So this new rule allows for more chances for more nominees. I think now only Musical Revival and Play Revival will have less than 5 noms. (unless for some reason they kick out all the play scores from that category).

 

Mike Barrett  Profile Photo
Mike Barrett
#563Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 11:36am

I feel with the (mostly) raves, that Daunno is gonna take home Best Actor in a Musical. It seems to be getting all the buzz right now! 

woeisme3
#564Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 12:56pm

I think Daunno has a definite shot, but it’s hard to say until Tootsie gets its reviews- most people have loved Santino.

Best Book is a category that’s stumping me too- Hadestown, Tootsie, and The Prom are really the only three that have gotten any positive notices. I could honestly see Head Over Heels getting a nod- that’s a category where they’ve often given closed shows a little love (title of show, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson, Lysistrata Jones etc)

boywonder14
#565Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 1:51pm

Whew! Glad to know that Gold Derby article ended up being correct after all. I think it's safe to say that 5th spot is between Be More Chill, Beetlejuice, and The Cher Show. 

SomethingPeculiar Profile Photo
SomethingPeculiar
#566Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/9/19 at 2:11pm

Mike Barrett said: "I feel with the (mostly) raves, that Daunno is gonna take home Best Actor in a Musical. It seems to be getting all the buzz right now!"

I'm starting to get Paulo Szot vibes... people thought Lin-Manuel would win the Tony, and then Paulo got swept up in the love for South Pacific. But if voters do like Tootsie, Fontana is a good way to honor the show (along with possibly Book and Costumes).

dollyfan
#567Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/10/19 at 11:01am

I am a huge fan of Damon and I would love to see him win! I won't be able to see Santino in the role so I can't really judge his performance but I've only heard good things

SomethingPeculiar Profile Photo
SomethingPeculiar
#568Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/10/19 at 1:56pm

Hear me out:

John Lithgow – WINNER – Best Featured Actor in a Play.

That category feels wide open right now, and his role is MUCH smaller than Metcalf's –– she's onstage almost the entire time, whereas he's in and out all night (and sometimes he's just sitting/listening). I wouldn't even consider it "category fraud." He could win his 3rd Tony in Featured, but he won't get a nomination in Lead.

Mike Barrett  Profile Photo
Mike Barrett
#569Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/10/19 at 2:08pm

I still think Tom Glenn Carney has got a great chance for The Ferryman. With how crowded the season is, I feel they're going to honor The Ferryman with play, supporting actor, and director at the very least. I can't forsee none of The Ferryman actors winning, but I of course could be proving wrong. He's my guess as of right now though. Bertie Carvel is my #2. 

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bjh2114
#570Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/10/19 at 3:06pm

Mike Barrett said: "I still think Tom Glenn Carney has got a great chance for The Ferryman. With how crowded the season is, I feel they're going to honor The Ferryman with play, supporting actor, and director at the very least. I can't forsee none of The Ferryman actors winning, but I of course could be proving wrong. He's my guess as of right now though. Bertie Carvel is my #2."

I think if anyone from The Ferryman is winning Best Featured Actor, it's Justin Edwards as Tom Kettle. It's a very Tony-bait type role and he was fantastic in it.

dollyfan
#571Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/10/19 at 3:59pm

i would love to see the fates in Hadestown as a tony nominated trio for best featured actress

SomethingPeculiar Profile Photo
SomethingPeculiar
#572Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/10/19 at 4:22pm

I don't know..... If voters see a list of Featured Actors comprised of "that guy" (x2) from The Ferryman, Rupert Murdoch, Gideon Glick, and beloved stage/screen icon John Lithgow playing a caricature of Bill Clinton, I have a hard time seeing them not give it to Lithgow

Both Justin Edwards and Tom Glynn Carney could be nominated and cancel each other out for Ferryman. Bertie Carvel's tough: many people thought he should have won for Matilda; but also, the largely-liberal Tony voters HATE Murdoch.

Updated On: 4/10/19 at 04:22 PM

Smaxie Profile Photo
Smaxie
#573Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/10/19 at 4:46pm

>the largely-liberal Tony voters HATE Murdoch.<

The same could be said for Roy Cohn, and yet...


Begin at the beginning and go on till you come to the end: then stop.

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JudyDenmark
#574Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread
Posted: 4/10/19 at 4:52pm

Maybe this is a dumb question, but when actors are nominated who are no longer in a production, or a production is now closed... were the Tony voters expected to have already seen everything in the event it might get nominated?

For a show like The Ferryman, which arrived in NYC with a lot of pre-Tony buzz, it’s reasonable to say that most voters probably caught it with the original cast, but what about, say, Bernhardt/Hamlet which is certainly eligible but not as buzzy?

My guess is that they’re technically not supposed to vote in categories where they haven’t seen all of the nominees, but most do anyway?


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