Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread- Page 17

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 3/8/19 at 8:56am

Celia Keenan-Bolger will probably be a four time Tony nominee is a stand out performance in a beloved show, she may win for Mockingbird. And now that Wilson is not the universally praised, what's her competition?

[CT2NYC]

Posted: 3/8/19 at 9:18am

MadsonMelo said: "Celia Keenan-Bolger will probably be a four time Tony nominee is a stand out performance in a beloved show, she may win for Mockingbird. And now that Wilson is not the universally praised, what's her competition?"

Possibilities:

Joan Allen

Mercedes Ruehl

Julie White

Cherry Jones

Fionnula Flanagan

Updated On: 3/8/19 at 09:18 AM

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 3/8/19 at 9:36am

They could honestly double the amount of play category nominees and just announce winners without nominations for the musicals this year. Plays are so stacked this year!

I wonder how the music in plays this season will affect nominations. There are not a lot of (good) original musical scores to choose from and we have pretty big-name people who composed music for plays this year: Philip Glass, Danny Elfman, Adam Guettel, Gabriel Kahane.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/8/19 at 9:38am

SomethingPeculiar said: "Mike Barrett said: "I haven't seen it so I can't verify, but it sounds like his role is a bit too small for a tony nom in that show. I think his chance is with choir boy but ya holy crap it is stacked. I mean I can see ANY of the people listed you mentioned nominated. Paddy might be vulnerable you're right, although I expect mass love for The Ferryman at least in terms of nominations. Should be a really fun category to watch. While I think Cranston deserves it, I don't think he is a 100% lock to win yet but a likely favorite for sure."


My theory: Jeff Danielsis a 2x nominee (soon to be 3x), has worked steadily in theatre his whole life, and people love Mockingbirdbut it's not winningBest Play. So as a way of honoringMockingbird,they'll give Daniels the Tony (and will probably beMockingbird's only win). Daniels is a very good part of a very good play, whereasBryan Cranston is the best part ofNetwork,but he just won a few years agofor a similarly "big" performance.

I think you're right that the passion forFerryman helps Paddy.
Pope will probably miss both categories...but he'll win a Theatre World Award!

Best Actress in a Play is crazilystacked, too: Elaine May, Glenda Jackson, Laura Donnelly, Laurie Metcalf, Heidi Schreck, Annette Bening, Kerry Washington, Janet McTeer, Keri Russell,Cherry Jones, and maybe Kristine Nielsen depending on the size of the role."

I was going to say if anything for Mockinbird, I think its Celia Keenan Bolger. 3 time tony nominee and honestly was one of the many standout performances, and may be the best of this amazing production. I could see it winning best play still however. I don't think Ferryman is a lock, although if I had to choose 1 Id lean Ferryman. Both shows are incredible though. Should be an exciting raise. 

[TFMH18]

Posted: 3/8/19 at 4:30pm

Is there a world in which either Heidi Schreck or "Constitution" is nominated? That to me is a standout performance and experience of the year and it's such a shame it didn't open last year when it would've been nominated no question.

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 3/8/19 at 7:56pm

I sort of forgot about Celia, but now I agree that this could be her year! And it doesn't hurt that she's basically the a lead in a Featured category. At the moment, I think she's the frontrunner, though we'll know soon if Kristine Nielsen and Julie White could be threats.

There's a world where Heidi Schreck gets nominated for Actress, especially if votes are close (meaning we get 6 or 7 nominees). There seem to be 3 locks so far (Elaine May, Glenda Jackson, Laura Donnelly), with ~4 other viable contenders. One other factor: Constitution could win or be a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize for Drama. If it gets Pulitzer attention (as some have speculated), I would be shocked if it doesn't get Tony-nominated. The only two locks right now are Ferryman and Mockingbird –– everything else is fair game.

A lot of unknowns hinge on Hillary, Gary, Burn This, and All My Sons. We'll find out about the Pulitzers on April 15.

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 3/10/19 at 10:30pm

After NYT and others panned Be More Chill I think there only noms could be Featured Actor (George Salazar or Jason Tam?), lighting and score. Really the score got trashed too but Beetlejuice is the only possible competition for the 4th slot right? 

[TFMH18]

Posted: 3/10/19 at 10:46pm

The Prom, Hadestown, Tootsie, and Ain’t Too Proud seem the likely contenders. Play is so much more competitive it’s almost absurd

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 3/10/19 at 11:28pm

A Score nomination is still likely, everything else tbd. I don't think Salazar is definite right now with so many unknowns.

[DiscoCrows]

Posted: 3/12/19 at 12:55am

Maybe I'm thinking out of my ass but I can definitely see BMC getting a costume nomination. Some of the party scene costumes and outfits are absolutely wild. Very reminiscent of Spongebob.

I still think Cher will take the Tony either way though.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 3/12/19 at 8:45am

Are Bob Mackie’s pre-existing costume designs allowed to be considered for the costume Tony? It seems like they would have to go by the same rule that’s used for Best Score - only judge the material that was created for this production. If that’s the case, I don’t think it’s a given that they would win, though they probably still have a decent shot.

[supersam1026]

Posted: 3/12/19 at 11:20am

I'm assuming they'll still divide them up, but do you think there's any chance we just get 1 "Best Revival" category since there are only 2 eligible for Musical revival??

Here's the official wording from the Tony Rulebook: "Each year the Tony Awards Administration Committee shall determine whether there shall exist in quality and quantity a sufficient number of Revivals to merit the granting of an Award for Best Revival of a Play or Musical and, if so, the Tony Awards Administration Committee shall also determine whether there shall be a separate Play and Musical Revival category; provided, however, that if there are at least THREE such plays and three such musicals, there shall automatically be separate Play and Musical Revival categories."

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 3/12/19 at 12:17pm

In my mind there's no way we're not getting two revival categories since a quick look at Wikipedia tells me that it hasn't happened since 1993 and since then there have been two seasons with only two musical revivals (2002 and 2011).

I'm also wondering about the costumes. I haven't seen the show yet but I thought I heard that they were at least slightly redesigned? And technically T. S. Eliot won two Tony's for Cats and that material wasn't new so maybe it's just a consideration for score?

Speaking of score, which plays do we think might be eligible for a score nomination? Is that something that the Tony committee will also make a decision on? Off the top of my head I can only think of Choir Boy, King Lear, and Gary, though from the early reports it sounds like there isn't that much music in Gary.

[TFMH18]

Posted: 3/12/19 at 5:25pm

^Mockingbird also has original music by (the very problematic) Adam Guettel

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 3/12/19 at 5:37pm

chrishuyen said: "And technically T. S. Eliot won two Tony's for Cats and that material wasn't new so maybe it's just a consideration for score?"

The Tonys have changed the rules since then (thankfully). Because of Elliot, and Rodgers & Hammerstein getting nominated for State Fair in 1996.

I think there would have been an announcement re: Bob Mackie's eligibility when SJB was confirmed for the Lead Actress category. Santo Loquasto's Ragtime nomination was rescinded in 2009 because they realized that the costumes were nearly identical to the original, which he had also designed.

Updated On: 3/12/19 at 05:37 PM

[South Florida]

Posted: 3/13/19 at 5:58pm

Aight!  I need to know Stephanie's chances from the vets in here.  I'm very nervous, I would never go see this show if she wasn't in it.  I probably won't be able to afford the trip anyway.  What are her chances?

[JBroadway]

Posted: 3/13/19 at 6:20pm

SomethingPeculiar said: " think there would have been an announcement re: Bob Mackie's eligibility when SJB was confirmed for the Lead Actress category. "

 

Maybe, but maybe not. Because the question here isn't whether or not Mackie is eligible for the Tony. Because (at least as I understand it) he designed ALL of the costumes in the show, not just the ones that are based on his previous designs. So the question is: are the voters allowed to consider the pre-existing designs when deciding whether or not to vote for him? Or are they only allowed to judge his new work? If they're only allowed to judge his new work, then he is not as much of a lock as we might think.

Of course, even if the voters are told that they're not allowed to consider his pre-existing designs, they might do so anyway. Can't control what's going on inside their heads when they cast their ballots, and it's not like it would be the first time a voter has made their choice for the wrong reasons.

But I still think it's an interesting technicality to examine, especially if it were to end up denying him the win.

Updated On: 3/13/19 at 06:20 PM

[OKBroadwayFan]

Posted: 3/13/19 at 6:54pm

I would compare Mackie's nomination to the Tony win for the Priscilla Queen of the Desert win for costumes.   Same designer and many of the same costumes from the movie.  

[CukorLover]

Posted: 3/14/19 at 10:10pm

Considering O'Hara's raves tonight for "Kate," she's one step closer to taking that trophy from Block. Looks like Bleu and Styles may be in the running for the "Featured" category as well. And, it's most likely Carlyle for the "Choreography" win!

[SmoothLover]

Posted: 3/15/19 at 5:50am

Seems like the clear winner for the 2020 Best Musical will be Bat Out Of Hell.

[jbird5]

Posted: 3/15/19 at 7:31am

CukorLover said: "Considering O'Hara's raves tonight for "Kate," she's one step closer to taking that trophy from Block. Looks like Bleu and Styles may be in the running for the "Featured" category as well. And, it's most likely Carlyle for the "Choreography" win!"

Raves?  You mean the ones that called her bland and horribly miscast?

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/15/19 at 9:55am

jbird5 said: "CukorLover said: "Considering O'Hara's raves tonight for "Kate," she's one step closer to taking that trophy from Block. Looks like Bleu and Styles may be in the running for the "Featured" category as well. And, it's most likely Carlyle for the "Choreography" win!"

Raves? You mean the ones that called her bland and horribly miscast?"

Times did give her a rave, and said no one else is on her level. Just one review but not all of them last night were bad. I fully expect a nomination for Kelli. 

[IdinaBellFoster]

Posted: 3/15/19 at 10:09am

Kelli got some nice notices, but nothing on the level of her performance in THE KING & I or BRIDGES. The only person standing in the way of Block winning is Rebecca Naomi Jones - and even then I think Block takes it.

[broadway86]

Posted: 3/15/19 at 10:42am

CT2NYC said: 
"Possibilities:


Joan Allen
Mercedes Ruehl
Julie White
Cherry Jones
Fionnula Flanagan"

Fingers crossed for Dearbhla Molloy, who blew me away in The Ferryman.

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 3/15/19 at 10:46am

^^ Chery Jones is eligible in Lead Actress, not Featured. All three stars of Lifespan of a Fact were billed above the title and the committee didn't move any of them to Featured. 

I'm worried Joan Allen and Mercedes Ruehl get forgotten amid huge amount of featured actresses in King Lear and Ferryman. And then there's Celia and Julie White.