bjh2114 said: "I actually worry that Brandon Victor Dixon's chances just got shot. With all four Shuffle Along men being in the same category instead of two and two, they might split ballot votes. Other than Daveed Diggs and Christopher Fitzgerald, those other 3 spots are up for grabs. I kinda think we'll see Paul Alexander Nolan, someone from She Loves Me (Creel most likely, but possibly Barasch), and one more person from either Hamilton or one person from Shuffle Along.
"
Honestly, I don't know that their chances would've been any better in Lead Actor, with so many truly carry-the-show lead roles this year (Brightman, Walker, Burstein) and the beast that is Hamilton. Not to mention Zachary Levi.
WiCkEDrOcKS said: "Now I can't help but wonder if they'll shut out SHUFFLE from the Best Musical race just to prove a point (like they did when ONE MAN TWO GUVNORS wanted to be considered a Revival - and then was omitted from Best Play). "
Kad said: "I would say Porter would be nominated, thanks to his second act solo."
Absolutely, I think Porter has the best chance of the four with maybe Stokes Mitchell the second most likely based on his name and the substance of the role. I know Joshua Henry has made quite a name for himself at the Tonys in the past few years, but I think he has too little to do to get in ahead of those two.
JudyDenmark said: "Honestly, I don't know that their chances would've been any better in Lead Actor, with so many truly carry-the-show lead roles this year (Brightman, Walker, Burstein) and the beast that is Hamilton. Not to mention Zachary Levi."
Sorry let me clarify. I assumed Stokes and Porter would be leading and have ZERO shot at nominations, but that Josh Henry and Brandon Victor Dixon would be ruled featured, giving Dixon a good look at a nomination. None of them had any chance if they stayed in the leading category, but rather than move all 4 down, they should have just moved 2.
CATSNYrevival said: "If Crazy For You and Nice Work if You Can Get it were considered new musicals, new books with ineligible scores, Shuffle Along should be considered a new musical as well. I think they made the right decision."
Agreed, even though the score is nearly all previously existing material from one musical, the context in which they are presented is entirely new. There's absolutely no way this should have been considered a Revival, unless the committee was bowing to pressure to avoid competing directly with Hamilton. I think it's in for a nomination for Best Musical, though.
bjh2114 said: "I assumed Stokes and Porter would be leading and have ZERO shot at nominations, but that Josh Henry and Brandon Victor Dixon would be ruled featured, giving Dixon a good look at a nomination."
Gotcha. Totally makes sense. Frankly, every one of the acting categories this year in both plays and musicals has way more extremely deserving options than slots. Should be really interesting on Tuesday, because a lot of really incredible performances are inevitably going to get snubbed. More this year than usual, I think.
Isn't SA's advertising campaign saying its a revival? Wouldn't they have change it?
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Call_me_jorge said: "Isn't SA's advertising campaign saying its a revival? Wouldn't they have change it?
No. I have not seen any advertising for SA designating it as a revival. I'm quite surprised that they relegated Brian Stokes Mitchell and Billy Porter to the Featured Actor category. I don't feel that's right at all.
CarlosAlberto said: "'m quite surprised that they relegated Brian Stokes Mitchell and Billy Porter to the Featured Actor category. I don't feel that's right at all. "
I also believe that Mitchell and Porter should be eligible for Best Actor, but I bet this decision brings joy to the other Best Actor contenders in an already crowded category. But it also just made the Featured Actor category that much harder to crack, especially in the face of all the ''Hamilton'' men.
As for ''Shuffle Along's'' advertising, I thought someone says they're using the word ''revival'' or a quote that calls it one, in their ad in the New York Times' theatrical ABC listings.
Although I do agree that the most likely scenario for Best Musical noms is Hamilton, Shuffle, Waitress and School of Rock, I am surprised (and admittedly a bit bummed) that On Your Feet isn't in the conversation a little more. If you look at the reviews, I believe it should be in the conversation. According to BroadwayWorld's review aggregate and show-score.com's aggregate, the far and away best reviewed new musical this year was of course Hamilton (9.7 & 94) followed by a clear second place for Shuffle Along (8.0 & 82).
Then things get super-murky. Waitress (7.7 & 75), On Your Feet (7.6 & 75) and School of Rock (7.6 & 74) are all basically in the same place.
American Psycho (7.2 & 62) and Bright Star (6.7 & 66) are both significantly below those other 5.
So if the nominators opinions line up with critics' opinions (which I know they don't always do), then perhaps On Your Feet has a little more of a chance than most are assuming??? On Your Feet also got more nominations (7) than either School of Rock and Waitress from the OCC, but then got completely shut out from the Drama Desks...so who knows...
Personally, I'd love to see a line-up of Hamilton, Shuffle Along, Waitress and On Your Feet. What a diverse group in both form (1 jukebox musical, 1 movie-to-musical adaptation, 1 hip-hop musical, and 1 creative educational piece) and racial diversity (1 written by and about Cuban-Americans, 1 written by and about performers of color, 1 written by and about women-which is sad that that is so unique and diverse, and 1 written by and about a plethora of American minorities)
Whereas I do agree with you that show aggregate sites are "rubbish" (because they try to make something an issue of math and numbers that inherently is not...and numbers are assigned in a non-statistical way), show-score actually does take into account a very high amount of reviews. Anywhere from 25-70 per show. Maybe it has changes since you last visited...
Show Score is a good tool for aggregating reviews, but the Tony nods aren't just based on reviews. American Psycho didn't get good reviews, but the fact that it lead both the OCCs and Drama Desks for new musicals (although Hamilton/Shuffle weren't eligible) is far more telling.
woeisme3 said: "Show Score is a good tool for aggregating reviews, but the Tony nods aren't just based on reviews. American Psycho didn't get good reviews, but the fact that it lead both the OCCs and Drama Desks for new musicals (although Hamilton/Shuffle weren't eligible) is far more telling."
To be fair, reviews are no more unreliable than the OCCs and Drama Desks for predicting Tony noms. Tony nominations are often wildly different from the nominations for the aforementioned awards, even with those not eligible taken into account.
woeisme3 said: "but the fact that it lead both the OCCs and Drama Desks for new musicals (although Hamilton/Shuffle weren't eligible) is far more telling."
No it's not. For The OCCs, Shrek led in 2009, Sister Act led in 2011, Nice Work If You Can Get It led in 2010, and Something Rotten led in 2015.
For the Drama Desks, 9 to 5 led with a record breaking 15 noms, Scottsboro Boys led in 2010, Follies and Nice Work led in 2012, Hands on a Hardbody (WHAT?!) led in 2013, and American in Paris led in 2015.
Strong year for new musicals. I think School of Rock is an entertaining show, but it was by-the-books. And safe. I'd rather see Psycho get nominated just for taking a risk.
RippedMan said: "Strong year for new musicals. I think School of Rock is an entertaining show, but it was by-the-books. And safe. I'd rather see Psycho get nominated just for taking a risk.
I agree, School of Rock's ticket sales will always be good they don't need a nomination
Did not see H ,Waitress or School. Did not have any interest in School or H .May get around to Waitress. Do not think any of the others have a shot
Saw American,Shuffle , On Your Feet. Enjoyed all 3 .Of those, only Shuffle looks to get a nod. To bad , the Best Musical category is always fixed @ 4. If it could be expanded to 5, one more deserving show could get a nod. It would not win of course but it could help a musical at the box office.