Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread- Page 21

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 1:29pm

JudyDenmark, I think BMC is in the 5th/6th slot for a lot of categories (Musical, Book, Featured Actor, Orchestrations, Lighting) and it mostly comes down to Beetlejuice reviews. I have Ain't Too Proud as the 4th Best Musical slot right now, but I didn't feel confident enough to predict its numbers in other categories :)

It's such a rich year for new plays that I don't see Network cracking the top 4. And it's almost verbatim the screenplay; if this category had the same rules as Best Score, it wouldn't be eligible. But it'll get design noms, Actor, and probably Director (with Van Hove being the rare director to get a nom for a show that wasn't nominated for Play/Revival).

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 1:46pm

OKBroadwayFan said: "Goldderby.com has their Tony predictions. They are usually very accurate on Oscars and Emmy Awards. I don't think they are as spot on with the Tony Awards.



https://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/tony-awards-nominations-2019/best-musical/sort/recent/

They seem to like The Prom."

They are usually very accurate at who is going to win after nominations are announced except when there are major shocks (I remember they had Come From Away in the 4th or 5th slot for best direction, which it won). The Prom love is real! I think the wildest guess is Michael McGrath getting a featured nom (he’s in like 2 scenes and doesn’t even sing for reference). I’m guessing they will change a bunch after hadestown, Tootsie and Beetlejuice actually open.

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 1:46pm

Updated On: 3/27/19 at 01:46 PM

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 1:54pm

Since there seems to be a lot of conversation around "4th slots" for Best Musical and Best Play... aren't there 5? Wasn't that a change as of last year? Surely there are enough eligible shows in both of those categories to allow for 5 nominees. 

Edit: If there ARE five, my current predictions are
Hadestown, Tootsie, The Prom, Ain't Too Proud, and Beetlejuice (pending reviews... otherwise prob BMC) for Best Musical
And Ferryman, TKAM, Choir Boy, Ink, and either Hillary/Gary/Network for Play.

Edit 2: Clearly I was hallucinating, haha. Here are the rules from last year, which (if I'm reading it right) is the same 4 Best Show nominees unless there's a tie as it's always been. Never mind! https://www.tonyawards.com/pdf/2018_Tony_Rules.pdf

Updated On: 3/27/19 at 01:54 PM

[dollyfan]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 4:02pm

I find it very strange that gold derby has Hadestown only winning featured actor, It has featured, score, director, and musical easily

[woeisme3]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 4:58pm

I think Hadestown is pretty much a lock for Featured Actress and Score. However, I wouldn't count out Tootsie for Best Musical- a lot of people loved it in Chicago and were praising it for having one of the best books in recent memory, and it wouldn't be the first time a more commercial show beats out something more "artsy"

And I think Daniel Fish is probably the frontrunner for Direction for Oklahoma at the moment, which is a complete reinvention and is probably gonna get raves. Although I can see Chavkin getting it, both for her inventive work here and to make up for The Great Comet.

[boywonder14]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 8:59pm

How much of a chance is there that Beetlejuice ends up being far better than it was in DC and ends up a major contender? Is that a possibility?

[Zion24]

Posted: 3/27/19 at 10:22pm

woeisme3 said: "I think Hadestown is pretty much a lock for Featured Actress and Score. However, I wouldn't count out Tootsie for Best Musical- a lot of people loved it in Chicago and were praising it for having one of the best books in recent memory, and it wouldn't be the first time a more commercial show beats out something more "artsy"

And I think Daniel Fish is probably the frontrunner for Direction for Oklahoma at the moment, which is a complete reinvention and is probably gonna get raves. Although I cansee Chavkin getting it, both for her inventive work here and to make up for The Great Comet."

i obviously know nothing, but i think you might have this backward. Chavkin is long overdue, and with Oklahoma! likely winning revival, I can see them acknowledging Fish that way. Meanwhile, i think Stoker and Testa are both going to give Amber Gray a run for her money. Testa is also long overdue, and Stoker not only is winning raves, but breaking barriers. We'll see.

[Clyde15]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 12:30am

After seeing Hadestown I easily see it getting nominated for Best Musical, Best Score, Best Book, Best Orchestrations, leading actress, Featured Actress, featured actor, Directing,  lighting, set, and maybe costumes.

I predict Best Musical, Score, Featured actress, Director, Set, and Lighting.

Updated On: 3/28/19 at 12:30 AM

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 8:00am

Shocked at the number of people unsure if Patrick Page will win or not. Who exactly is his competition? I think Amber is much less a sure thing, though I do think she will win if simply because Oklahoma voters will split between Mary Testa and Ali Strocker. 

[Andres_Zayas]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 10:47am

Rogerdellibovi said: "Shocked at the number of people unsure if Patrick Page will win or not. Who exactly is his competition? I think Amber is much less a sure thing, though Ido think she will win if simply because Oklahoma voters will split between Mary Testa and Ali Strocker."

I have heard some buzz about Jarrod Spector in The Cher Show, but I’m certain that Patrick Page is a solid lock for Featured Actor

[BroadwayGuy12]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 10:55am

JDonaghy4 said: "i obviously know nothing, but i think you might have this backward. Chavkin is long overdue, and with Oklahoma! likely winning revival, I can see them acknowledging Fish that way. Meanwhile, i think Stoker and Testa are both going to give Amber Gray a run for her money. Testa is also long overdue, and Stoker not only is winning raves, but breaking barriers. We'll see."

I've loved Chavkin's work on The Great Comet and Hadestown, but...long overdue? This is her second Broadway show.

[NYCblurb]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 12:06pm

My effort out on the musical limb for noms, I think it'll land:
Tootsie + Oklahoma! –– 11
Hadestown –– 10
The Prom + Kiss Me, Kate –– 6
Ain't Too Proud  + Beetlejuice –– 4
Be More Chill –– 3

[NYCblurb]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 12:06pm

My effort out on the musical limb for noms, I think it'll land:
Tootsie + Oklahoma! –– 11
Hadestown –– 10
The Prom + Kiss Me, Kate –– 6
Ain't Too Proud  + Beetlejuice –– 4
Be More Chill –– 3

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 12:39pm

BroadwayGuy12 said: "I've loved Chavkin's work on The Great Comet and Hadestown, but...long overdue? This is her second Broadway show."

Exactly.  If' we're going by the long overdue count, then Scott Ellis will win on his 9th nomination for Kiss Me, Kate, his 23rd Broadway show (he won't win, I'm just saying if we're talking about overdue, it wouldn't be Chavkin).

[Zion24]

Posted: 3/28/19 at 10:39pm

BroadwayGuy12 said: "

I've loved Chavkin's work on The Great Comet and Hadestown, but...long overdue? This is her second Broadway show."

Ha, you're absolutely right. I meant that there is alot of adoration for her, and a feeling that she was deserving for the Great Comet. 

[ACL2006]

Posted: 3/29/19 at 9:41am

So we can eliminate Beetlejuice as a possible Best Musical nom. Hoping we get five nominees.

Hadestown
Tootsie
The Prom
The Cher Show
Be More Chill

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 3/29/19 at 9:48am

Hadestown 

Tootsie

Ain't Too Proud 

The Prom 

( Beetlejuice or Be More Chill or Cher Show )

Updated On: 3/29/19 at 09:48 AM

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 3/29/19 at 10:24am

Still betting on The Cher Show over Be More Chill and Ain't too Proud lol

[getupngo]

Posted: 3/29/19 at 10:58am

woeisme3 said: "I think Hadestown is pretty much a lock for Featured Actress."

I think most people would say Ali Stoker is the lock

 

[jbp1232]

Posted: 3/29/19 at 11:19am

getupngo said: "woeisme3 said: "I think Hadestown is pretty much a lock for Featured Actress."

I think most people would say Ali Stoker is the lock"

I think both Amber Gray and Ali Stroker are locks for nominations, but I could see the award going to either. My money is on Gray, but I thought Stroker was fantastic (actually about the only thing I liked about this production of Oklahoma that everyone else seems to be raving about). 

[getupngo]

Posted: 3/29/19 at 11:21am

jbp1232 said: "getupngo said: "woeisme3 said: "I think Hadestown is pretty much a lock for Featured Actress."

I think most people would say Ali Stoker is the lock"

I think both Amber Gray and Ali Stroker are locks for nominations, but I could see the award going to either. My money is on Gray, but I thought Stroker was fantastic (actually about the only thing I liked about this production of Oklahoma that everyone else seems to be raving about)."

I think gray will take it if (like someone else mentioned) the Oklahoma vote splits between testa and stoker... but I really don't see testa getting a nom? I don't think she did anything extraordinary in this....

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 3/29/19 at 11:33am

My guess is it'll be these 4, and at this point this is 100% my prediction. Id be surprised if it isn't these 4 to be perfectly honest. Maybe, possibly, a Be More Chill steal but thats it. 

 

Ain't Too Proud

Hadestown 

Tootsie 

The Prom 

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 3/29/19 at 11:56am

Mike Barrett said: "My guess is it'll be these 4, and at this point this is 100% my prediction. Id be surprised if it isn't these 4 to be perfectly honest. Maybe, possibly, a Be More Chill steal but thats it.

Ain't Too Proud
Hadestown
Tootsie
The Prom"

100% agree that this is 100% my prediction, haha. If there's a fifth... I think Cher Show. But I don't see anything upsetting those four. 

[treblemakerz]

Posted: 3/29/19 at 12:07pm

In terms of Best Featured Actress, I think it will definitely come down to Amber Gray and Ali Stroker. While I'm wholeheartedly rooting for Amber, I've always been a fan of Ali and would not be upset at all if she were to take it home. Especially because of how much it would mean for a wheelchair-bound actress to win a Tony!

I have not seen Oklahoma yet, but it's at the very top of my to-do list. Hopefully sooner rather than later so I can get a better read on the competition.