New York Times TONY voter poll?- Page 3

[Jarethan]

Posted: 6/8/18 at 10:41am

all_that_jazz said: "What the hell is with abstaining. Your a tony voter your job is to see the nominated musicals and vote on the ones eligible. How hard is that best of the 4 nominated. Spoiled pretentious idiot. If you cant handle the job decline it and let others do it."

I disagree emphatically...if you don't like any of the nominated shows -- overall, it was a rotten season for new works -- why vote for your least disliked?  (On a personal note, I enjoyed TBV, did not love it the way many on this board did, but I would have voted for it were I a member of the club).

I think that issue applies equally to best play.  Is HP really going to win because it is an excellent play or because Tiffany and crew did their jobs so expertly?  It should win for best production -- an award they had for awhile in the 60's and which I thought at the time was stupid -- not best play.

Updated On: 6/8/18 at 10:41 AM

[rjm516]

Posted: 6/8/18 at 10:50am

Ugh I'm sure he doesn't care but HHP deserves this award so much. As I'm sure Slater does (I saw his understudy and man that is a ROLE). And I love Shalhoub. But Henry? His Soliloquy was great but it's hard not to shine during that gift to male musical theatre performers. What about the rest of Carousel? 

[disneybroadwayfan22]

Posted: 6/8/18 at 11:32am

Kad said: "Disappointed there was no insight into the Featured performance races, which seem (to me) to be competitive across all 4 categories."

I know! I'm dying to see how Burtz vs. Lee looks

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 6/8/18 at 11:43am

BroadwayConcierge said: "I also still wish Lenk and Ambrose could tie, somehow!"

Well, it IS possible for them to tie. I don't understand why people say things like this as if it were totally impossible for there to be a tie at the Tonys. If they get the same number of votes, they both win. 

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 6/8/18 at 12:24pm

The Times poll of Tony voters plays it too safe. It predicts only 8 categories out of 26 categories, and they're the least riskiest ones. It doesn't even do the Featured actors and directors, let alone any of the designers. If you want predictions for ALL categories, check out GoldDerby.com or Time Out New York. 

To me, the toughest category to call is Best Actor in a Musical. At GoldDerby.com, 6 experts are picking Slater; 6 are picking Henry, and just 2 are going for Shalhoub. (Right now, I'm down for Slater, but I might switch ... or not.) Notably, Time Out New York is predicting Henry. It's also picking Stachel for Featured.

I wonder what the biggest surprises will be. Last year, I didn't expect ''Come From Away's'' Christopher  Ashley to win for Direction of a Musical. Could Michael Arden upset for ''Once on This Island''? And Michael Aronov winning for ''Oslo'' was a surprise, too. Is there a chance Anthony Boyle upsets Nathan Lane?

Finally, the Tonys (as usual) are telecast on a tape delay to the West Coast. Is there a site where they are going to be live-streamed?

Updated On: 6/8/18 at 12:24 PM

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 6/8/18 at 1:29pm

Wayman_Wong said: "Is there a chance Anthony Boyle upsets Nathan Lane?"

I've talked to two Tony voters, both of whom voted for Boyle because "Lane was a sure thing." Not that two voters is any kind of a sample, but I seriously hope this doesn't backfire. (I thought Boyle was probably the best acting in Harry Potter, but still nowhere near the same league as Lane. You just can't hold up Harry Potter to Angels in America and make any kind of a comparison, imho.)

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Posted: 6/11/18 at 10:03am

Considering how accurate the NY Times voter poll was and has been for years, I think we can safely say they reveal the winners three days before the actual ceremony. People have put too much stock in the Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk trying to to turn them into like the Golden Globes or the various Guild Awards for the Oscars but there are just way too many differences in membership make-up for them to be accurate precursors in the same way. The only thing they tell you is how various people enjoy certain productions to gauge their likability, which is an informative insight but limited.

The New York Times poll is effective because it is a very controlled sample size unlike random polling for a Presidential election, it gets released too late for it to change voters' minds, and their sample sizes are getting too sizable to ignore and statistically significant.The only way this will stop being as accurate as it is is if the sample size decreases to a point where it's only sample an insignificantly sized sample or the participating Tony voters get together (all 150+ of them) and decide to trick the NY Times and give them wrong information, which will never happen.

Updated On: 6/11/18 at 10:03 AM

[Fosse76]

Posted: 6/11/18 at 10:53am

ScottyDoesn'tKnow2 said:The New York Times poll is effective because it is a very controlled sample size unlike random polling for a Presidential election,"

Those polls aren't random.

 

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Posted: 6/11/18 at 10:55am

Are you talking about the Presidential election polls because many of them are. In fact the one that was not random was the most maligned and ended up being the one that got it right.

[lilac3]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 3:09am

This year's poll must be coming out today, surely?

[bear88]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 3:40am

It's out.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/07/theater/tony-awards-broadway-voter-survey-hadestown-ferryman.html?searchResultPosition=1

Hadestown is favored by what's described as a plurality for best musical, with a "solid, although not insurmountable lead," and The Ferryman is ahead for Best Play. The fact that voters who were underwhelmed by Hadestown are divided on an alternative choice is said to be helping its chances. The Prom apparently got the most second place votes, but it's not far ahead of Tootsie and Ain't Too Proud.

Oklahoma! is favored as the best musical revival over Kiss Me, Kate.

Play revival is too close to call between The Boys in the Band (supposedly a slight favorite), The Waverly Gallery, and All My Sons.

The expected favorites are who everyone expects in the lead acting categories. Bryan Cranston is reportedly in the lead for best actor. 

The Times survey, as usual, doesn't get into best director, featured actors or other categories.

The survey contacted 123 Tony voters out of 831, a small increase from last year. Michael Paulson points out that the total number of voters, especially for plays, may be down this year because of the "requirement" that voters see every play/performer in each category. (I know, it's an honor system.)

Updated On: 6/7/19 at 03:40 AM

[djoko84]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 8:20am

It's actually not really an honor system as the Tony administrators cross-reference the voter with the general manager of a show to see if they actually went to the show. The general managers I'm sure give them a list so that if a voter didn't go then that category is voided for them.

[Wick3]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 8:59am

It's interesting. The article also stated:

"Keep in mind: This year, for the first time, voters are receiving personalized electronic ballots based on their self-reported attendance, meaning that they cannot vote in categories in which they have not confirmed seeing all the nominees. As a result, the number of ballots cast, particularly in play categories, is likely to be smaller than in past years."

This move mainly affects categories with plays since many were only on Broadway for a limited engagement. To vote for Best Play, for example, Tony voters must have come to NYC during the winter season to see Choir Boy; or see Boys in the Band a year ago to vote for Best Play revival. I do think it's more fair to do it this way (I just hope they communicated this to the Tony voters a year ago though at the start of the season.)

[djoko84]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 9:58am

Not only is this more fair, but it's how every awards show should be including the Oscars. It boggles my mind when someone votes in a category for the best, but hasn't seen all of the nominated works. Now closed plays will be on par with currently open plays (I doubt this affects musicals at all).

Updated On: 6/7/19 at 09:58 AM

[JBroadway]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 10:03am

Do we know if this system also applied to the nominators? I hope so.

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 10:12am

JBroadway said: "Do we know if this system also applied to the nominators? I hope so."

Nominators must recuse themselves if they've missed a category or have any conflicts-of-interest. That's been the case for quite a while.

Granted this is only about 15 % of voters, but the divisiveness around Oklahoma! indicates it's not winning Director and Orchestrations. Hadestown is now the clear frontrunner in those categories.

[Kad]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 10:14am

I wouldn't count out Oklahoma for orchestrations. Even though the production has been divisive, Daniel Kluger's musical work has been widely praised even by people who haven't liked the show. 

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 10:15am

@SomethingPeculiar Director absolutely. But do you think its that clear cut in Orchestrations? I've been alternating over those two in my predictions and hemming and hawing about that category for a while. It still seems like Oklahoma! has such OBVIOUS work in the orchestrations department. Almost similar to the win for the Sweeney Todd revival. Of course, that was the last revival to win the category, so its very hard to say. Also: I believe this category (along with the two sound races) are decided on by a panel of experts, and not the whole voting body. So that complicates things even more when predicting a winner

[billis2]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 10:36am

I think the Tonys said they weren't going to check with the shows about who went because many voters have access to free tickets through other mechanisms (friends, work connections) that the theater wouldn't always know about.

[disneybroadwayfan22]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 10:36am

Wish they mentioned Featured Actress in a Musical. It's such a super tight race between Stroker and Grey and a teaser would have been good.  

Updated On: 6/7/19 at 10:36 AM

[JBroadway]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 11:24am

billis2 said: "I think the Tonys said they weren't going to check with the shows about who went because many voters have access to free tickets through other mechanisms (friends, work connections) that the theater wouldn't always know about."

 

You’re probably right that these industry people have other means of getting comps, but it seems like they should be required to use their Tony Voter comps exactly for this reason - so it CAN be proved that they attended.

[djoko84]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 12:14pm

If a Tony voter doesn't use their comps and instead get tickets by other means then they still don't get to vote in the category unless they can prove they attended the show. It's really not hard to figure out if a voter attended a show or not.

[JSquared2]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 1:54pm

djoko84 said: "If a Tony voterdoesn't use their comps and instead get tickets by other means then they still don't get to vote in the category unless they can prove they attended the show. It's really not hard to figure out if a voter attended a show or not."

That is 100% wrong.  The voter just has to go into the Tony website and log in and certify that they have seen a particular show.  They do not have to use their designated Tony Voter seats, nor do they have to "prove" anything.  It's still an "honor system" setup, but slightly better than what they used to have -- which was nothing.

[raddersons]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 2:04pm

If the awards wanted to verify that voters saw the shows they claim they did, they would have to hire a whole team of people just to verify 825 people seeing each show. There's no way that's happening. 

[Kad]

Posted: 6/7/19 at 2:34pm

There are 800+ voters, and Broadway seasons have  dozens of eligible shows. Going through box office information to confirm tickets were picked up/scanned, or even something like having voters hold onto their used ticket stubs,  would be extremely time consuming and onerous. Not to mention, this whole thing has a tight timeline. 

Are there bad actors (no pun intended) in the voting pool, who skip shows or give away their tickets and vote anyway? Definitely. But I doubt there are enough of them for it to really make a major difference in final results.