BEST ACTRESS in a musical PREDICTIONS- Page 2

[Jk86]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 12:12am

It would be a shame if Amber Grey isn’t nominated for Leading Actress. She stole Hadestown and it’s an extraordinary piece as it is. I do t think Eva will get a nod at all.

Also, Sophia...she’s super talented but I don’t think Lydia is the role that’s getting her a nod. Just my opinion.

[quizking101]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 12:21am

Rescinding my earlier comments, I would actually hand the Featured Actor Tony to Andre De Shields over my previous selections

[Zion24]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 12:40am

I really don't see Hadestown in the Leading category here; Amber is squarely supporting, and Eva doesn't do much. She is the "lead" in the traditional sense but she sings sweetly and then disappears. Did Eva get raves elsewhere that I don't know about?

Because it seems to me that Block, O'Hara and Rebecca Jones are locks. The rest are up for grabs; I like Leavel but she also struck me as supporting when compared to the show's protagonist, who I think has a solid chance of being included here.

An odd year. Block feels like the front runner by default, but if the critics receive Oklahoma as I expect them to, I think Jones is a dark horse here. 

Updated On: 4/4/19 at 12:40 AM

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 9:52am

carolinaguy said: "JudyDenmark said:

FWIW... I do thinkCher Show has a shot at a Best Musical nomination if there are five (still unclear about this year's rules). I think it would take the fifth slot, with Ain'tToo Proud taking the fourth."

Here is the official rule on nominations from 2017-2018:

Show Categories. The number of nominees in each of the four “Best
Show” categories shall be determined in the following manner:
(A) Where there are nine or more eligible shows in a Best Show
category, at the Tony Nominating Meeting, the Nominating
Committee will be instructed to cast one vote each for four eligible
shows as nominees on his/her secret ballot. Such ballot shall be
collected and tabulated by a representative of the Accounting
Firm. The four eligible shows with the highest number of votes will
automatically be designated as the nominees in such category. A
fifth nominee shall be added to the category in the event that the
Accounting Firm determines that the difference in votes between
the fourth highest ranked show and the fifth highest ranked show
is three votes or less.

The only time in recent years where we haven't had four nominees was 2016, when we had five and we can assume Bright Star and School of Rock were the fourth and fifth-place shows and were within three votes of each other."

While I agree that Bright Star might've been one of the two battling it out for the fourth slot, I actually think Waitress might've been the other given that it was the only Best Musical nominee that year that didn't show up in Best Book.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 10:05am

madz3 said: "I’m curious to see who everyone thinks will win best actress in a musical.

My first pick would be Stephanie J. Block

I saw The Cher Show in January. I was not impressed by the show as the whole, mostly due to the poor writing. With that being said, SJB carried that show on her BACK. Not only did she knock Cher out of the park vocally, she brought an incredibly honest and moving acting performance to what was lackluster writing. I did not think it was possible to cry during that show- but she ALONE did that. Beyond her stellar vocals (which she’s proved time and time again) I was surprised and delighted by the grounded-ness she brought to the role and the story. She made the whole thing worth it. The amount of work she does in this role is insane.

Eva Nobelzada seems to be giving consistently great performances, and although I’ve not seen Hadestown yet (going to soon), I’ve heard her role is not big enough (One could argue this is similar to Lenk’s role last year, in a largely ensemble piece, where she fit in most obviously as “lead”?)

I predict Hadestown will win Best Musical, and wonder how this will affect her chances?

Here are my worries with SJB- while I’d like to believe she has it in the bag, The Cher Show will not get nominated for Best Musical- will this affect her chances?

It seems like The Cher Show marketing team is going hard to get her as much exposure as possible- I’m not sure how effective this is as I don’t think any of Cher’s songs taken out of the show really show the massive amount she did with the role! Hopefully the earlier opening date of the show won’t affect voters memory of her performance.

A final note on SJB- she has the whole commodity-musical bias up against her; people are growing tired of the jukebox musical despite how outstanding her performance is. She is an industry favorite however, and many people would say it is her “time” even if that doesn’t hold any legitimate weight. I agree she has CONSISTENTLY given outstanding performances: Falsettos (“I’m Breaking Down&rdquo, Drood, Anything Goes (that tapping!), 9 to 5 (“Get Out and Stay Out&rdquo, etc.

If you’d asked me a month or two ago, I’d have said SJB no question, it seems more tentative now. If you consider everything she’s done to not only NOT do just a campy impression, but also give the role and show life- it dwarfs all the other women we predict will be nominated."

Yeah, there is still the whole industry bias against commodity musicals, which was as evidenced last year when The Band’s Visit knocked down Frozen, Mean Girls, and SpongeBob SquarePants in almost every single category. Plus, it's been almost 19 years since a show that wasn't nominated for Best Musical won an acting prize. That's an important stat we should all keep in mind when making predictions. I will say that the one thing that will end up convincing me to predict Stephanie J. Block for the win is if the New York Times voter poll has her way out front. Then again, if Hadestown does really well on Tony night, I would not be surprised to see Eva Noblezada win in a sweep.

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 10:33am

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "it's been almost 19 years since a show that wasn't nominated for Best Musical won an acting prize."

It's kind of amazing how much the Best Musical/Revival race dictates other categories. Similarly, Best Director hasn't had a nominee who didn't direct one of the Musical/Revival nominees since the 90s. And JRB winning Best Score for Bridges was the first time since 1975 (The Wiz) that someone won for a show that wasn't nominated for Best Musical.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 10:48am

^Actually, The Bridges of Madison County became the first non-Best Musical nominee since Aida to have won Best Original Score. The Wiz was not only nominated for Best Musical in 1975, but it also ended up winning.

There were also several stats that got broken in 2017. Andy Blankenbuehler (Bandstand) became the first choreographer to have won for a show that wasn’t nominated for Best Musical nor Revival since Matthew Bourne (Swan Lake) in 1999. Rebecca Taichman (Indecent) became the first person to have won Best Direction of a Play for a show that didn’t go on to win a top award since Mary Zimmerman (Metamorphoses) in 2002, Christopher Ashley (Come From Away) became the first Best Direction of a Musical winner to have done so likewise since John Doyle (Sweeney Todd) in 2006. The Play That Goes Wrong became the first sole Tony nominee to have pulled off a win since Hollywood Arms in 2003.

Updated On: 4/4/19 at 10:48 AM

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 12:00pm

Sorry, I don't know where my head was with that WIZ stat, I was even looking at the Wiki page! (Lack of coffee??) But I love stats like this... they're so cfrequently talked about with the Oscars, but rarely with the Tonys.

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 12:10pm

Block is this year's Headley!


I know they really liked ''Aida'', even giving them Score, but if Headley was able to beat Mazzie, Luker and Collette. It wont be the fact that Cher Show won't be in BEST MUSICAL that will stop Block, and I still think Cher Show can get a nom before AIN'T TOO PROUD and, especially, BE MORE CHILL.

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 12:13pm

TITANIC is a fun stat show:

- the only Best Musical winner not to have a Directing nom since they split the category in 1960.

- the only Best Musical winner not to receive any Acting noms (excluding pre-1956 when there were only nominees, no winners) 

- It, like The Producers, won in every category for which it was nominated, though Producers had 2 Actor and 3 Featured Actor nominees.

[AngusN]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 12:19pm

JDonaghy4 said:
An odd year. Block feels like the front runner by default, but if the critics receive Oklahoma as I expect them to, I think Jones is a dark horse here."

Not by default, but, because she gives a fantastic, tour-de-force performance in an otherwise mediocre show. There are actresses in the past, who have won for less impressive performances. Plus, she can only compete against the competition that is available.

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 12:22pm

Off-topic, but Contact, James Joyce's The Dead, Swing!, and Wild Party were nominated for Best Musical that year... and not Aida?? That is truly bizarre to me. I expected to look it up and find four genius classics that would logically trump it, but that is so not the case. 

Also, I'm ready for an Aida revival. 

[quizking101]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 12:24pm

After Tony Shalhoub won for THE BANDS VISIT (arguably a combination of lifetime achievement and wanting to give the show a sweep), I think anything is possible and Block certainly has a damn good case to take the statue.

[leighmiserables]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 12:42pm

While I understand the impulse for wanting/expecting Gray to be bumped up into Leading category, I don't see how, practically, that would make any sense. In Act One, Persephone only has one real solo number in "Livin' It Up on Top" (and even then, it's an ensemble song), and in Act Two it's only a bit more with "Our Lady of the Underground", as far as I remember. While I agree she was one of the show-stealers, I just don't think there's enough material there for her for anyone to make a case that she'd fit into the Leading category. 

Page, maybe, as he does have significantly more material, but I'd still be surprised. 

[OKBroadwayFan]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 12:47pm

kdogg36 said: "madz3 said: "(One could argue this is similar to Lenk’s role last year, in a largely ensemble piece, where she fit in most obviously as “lead”?)"

It's interesting how we all see things through different eyes! I thought Katrina Lenk entirely dominatedThe Band's Visit."

I agree with you, Lenk was the lead of that show.

[OKBroadwayFan]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 12:49pm

SomethingPeculiar said: "quizking101 said: "Who would you throw in the Featured Actor column. I’m grasping at straws myself to figure out who could fit in. Page aside, the only other two that come in to play for me are Jarrod Spector for CHER SHOW and either Ephraim Skyes or Derrick Baskin for AIN’T TOO PROUD"


Two for HADESTOWN (Patrick Page and Andre DeShields), Patrick Vaill forOklahoma!,Corbin Bleu forKiss Me, Kate.Final slot between Michael Salazar, Jarrod Spector, anAin't too Proudguy, or maaaaybe James Davis fromOklahoma!

A possible spoiler: is Alex Brightman actually a lead in Beetlejuice? Is there any world in which they put him in Featured?Michael Keaton's role in the film is very muchsupporting, even though he's the title character.

I can't Page and Gray as leads. They could both win in Featured."

Alex Brightman has been panned by critics in DC and most on this board from the DC thread and the Preview thread.   Regardless of his placement, lead vs featured, I doubt he will be nominated

[Samanthacq]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 12:54pm

leighmiserables said: "While I understand the impulse for wanting/expecting Grayto be bumped up into Leading category, I don't see how, practically, that would make any sense. In Act One, Persephone only has one real solo number in "Livin' It Up on Top"(and even then, it's an ensemble song), and in Act Two it's only a bit more with "Our Lady of the Underground", as far as I remember. While I agree she was one of the show-stealers, I just don't think there's enough material there for her for anyone to make a case that she'd fit into the Leading category.

Page,maybe,as he does have significantly more material, but I'd still be surprised."

Persephone also has the "how long" duet in Act 2. I don't think Amber is the lead here, but if Beth Leavel can be ruled as the lead with her three songs, then I don't see why Amber cannot.

[OKBroadwayFan]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 12:55pm

SomethingPeculiar said: "TITANICis a fun stat show:

- the only Best Musical winner not to have a Directing nom since they split the category in 1960.

-the only Best Musical winner not to receive any Acting noms(excluding pre-1956 when there were only nominees, no winners)

- It, likeThe Producers,won in every category for which it was nominated,though Producershad 2 Actor and 3 Featured Actor nominees."

I think you need more coffee....don't you mean   "no nominees only winners pre-1956?"

[woeisme3]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 1:01pm

Beth Leavel is the second most important character in the show and has her own defined arc, I don’t know how anyone can say that she’s not a lead.

Persephone and Hades, IMO, are both large featured roles. They have more stage time them some of the featured players, but it’s fundamentally Orpheus and Eurydice’s story. I think Noblezada will get nominated- the only person i can really see bumping her is Caitlin Kinnuen if the nominators really love The Prom.

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 1:36pm

OKBroadwayFan said: "I think you need more coffee....don't you mean "no nominees only winners pre-1956?""

Oh gosh, YES that's it! Just here to spread delusions and fake news.

[JSquared2]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 1:40pm

woeisme3 said: "Beth Leavel is the second most important character in the show and has her own defined arc, I don’t know how anyone can say that she’s not a lead.

Persephone and Hades, IMO, are both large featured roles. They have more stage time them some of the featured players, but it’s fundamentally Orpheus and Eurydice’s story. I think Noblezada will get nominated- the only person i can really see bumping her is Caitlin Kinnuen if the nominators really love The Prom."

 

I would put Samantha Barks' chances of a nom ahead of Noblezada's, since that may be the only chance to acknowledge PRETTY WOMAN.

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 1:59pm

JSquared2 said: "I would put Samantha Barks' chances of a nom ahead of Noblezada's, since that may be the only chance to acknowledge PRETTY WOMAN."

I would bet my entire life savings that there's no chance of this happening. I don't think Noblezada is necessarily a guaranteed nom, but if she's not in it won't be because of Barks. I'm not sure the nominating committee cares one way or another about acknowledging Pretty Woman... there are always shows that get shut out at the Tonys. 

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 2:34pm

JSquared2 said: "I would put Samantha Barks' chances of a nom ahead of Noblezada's, since that may be the only chance to acknowledge PRETTY WOMAN."

You're assuming they WANT to do that...

[all_that_jazz]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 2:37pm

As of the last tony meetongs king kong jad still not been included. If for some reason they arent then the potential nominees in leading actress musical is only 8. Which would mean only 4 nominees.

[JSquared2]

Posted: 4/4/19 at 2:42pm

bjh2114 said: "JSquared2 said: "I would put Samantha Barks' chances of a nom ahead of Noblezada's, since that may be the only chance to acknowledge PRETTY WOMAN."

You're assuming they WANT to do that..."

 

Yes, I am.  That's why I said it.

Updated On: 4/4/19 at 02:42 PM