Oscars 2012 — Page 7

I finally saw Zero Dark Thirty this evening. (Shout out to the person that uploaded the awards screener!) I personally thought it was a perfect film. Absolutely controversial, but masterful nonetheless.

At this point, I do not see how Jessica Chastain can lose. She doesn't give a Sally Field-esque performance (angry, angst-ridden, manic,) but she is slow and steady like a train. However, she has just the right amount of oomph when necessary to catch the attention of voters looking for type of acting. Ultimately her performance reminds me of Jodie Foster in Silence of the Lambs. No BIG money scenes, but her presence is felt in every frame of the film whether she is on screen or not. She is a ballast.

Jennifer Lawrence has had a wonderful career thus far, and she will undoubtedly get her turn in the near future. However, I do not see her prevailing this time at bat. The Academy loves awarding pretty young things, and if she were in Supporting, she would certainly be giving the sure-thing Hathaway a run for her money. But alas, she is not and therefore does not deserve a win this time around.

I also saw The Impossible today, and I liked Naomi Watts quite a bit, but I'm not sure her film has enough support behind it. If her co-stars were receiving there share of buzz as well, I might think differently. Besides, she has her Diana biopic coming next year, which will likely garner her more awards attention.

The nominations come out on Thursday. Are we close enough now where people want to do predictions?

Here are mine:

Best Picture:

Lincoln
Amour
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
The Master

Best Director:

Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Ben Affleck - Argo
Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Haneke - Amour

Best Actor:

Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Denzel Washington - Flight
Joquin Phoenix - The Master

Best Actress:

Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Kiera Knightly - Anna Karenina

Best Supporting Actor:

Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Leonardo Di Caprio - Django Unchained
Matthew McConnaughy - Magic Mike
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

Best Supporting Actress:

Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Sally Field - LIncoln
Amy Adams - The Master
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy

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best-I'd take Joaquin Phoenix out and add John Hawkes for The Sessions.

The best actress category is so weak this year. Got all of my screeners now. But the advertising mail onslaught is in full swing and it is a bit of a turn off.

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I don't think we'll see both DiCaprio and Waltz nominated. Part of me thinks the Academy will pull a wild card and nominate Samuel L. Jackson. I know he's got no award buzz despite very good notices, but still.

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I think Lincoln will take picture, actor, director and supporting actor for Tommy Lee Jones' performance (he deserves it more than Daniel Day-Lewis, in my opinion).

I think Zero Dark Thirty will take actress for Jessica Chastain, and probably some technical awards-I think it's Lincoln's biggest competition for best picture.

Best adapted screenplay is a tight one-Argo and Lincoln are there. I think Argo has a chance here. (I thought Zero Dark Thirty was original-and if it is, I think it will win.)

"Got all of my screeners now."

uh oh, we're still waiting for a few.

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Roscoe- I agree about Argo. But what most mystifies me about that is the adoration for Alan Arkin in it. After seeing it, I thought, "THAT's the performance getting award buzz?"

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Besty, did you see The Impossible? No mention of Watts nor Holland.

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I didn't see it, but I sense a bit of an "overrated" backlash on it now. I can't weigh in, though.

They like Naomi Watts, though, so she could get a nod.

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The role is small and Arkin just plays Gruff Old Man through it. If I had to nominate one of the supporting actors (though I don't think any of the roles are award-worthy), it'd be the ever-reliable John Goodman.

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Argo to me felt like a film that forgot its first 15 minutes. The very well-told prologue of US-Iran relations (although I am not sure if doing it by 'storyboard' fit even if it connected to the fake movie idea) and the taking of the embassy were the best and truest parts of the story. Then it seemed to have Ben Affleck sleepwalk halfway through the film until he meets the embassy staff members and also have the CIA (never really taking any heat for how bad they missed the Iranian revolution) transform into Apollo 13's mission control aka inoffensive '70s stock characters. There was a reason movies about the CIA in the '70s were bleak. Because the CIA in the '70s were bleak, even in the very mild Stansfield Turner era. The red, white, and blue pat on the backs as the film's ending left me cold. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy was a much superior film that even if it was based on fiction completely got its era and tone right.