I've been watching the Tonys since I was a kid, when the local stations broadcast it here in New York 1n 1960 (and Ethel Merman in GYPSY was robbed of a Tony in favor of Mary Martin in THE SOUND OF MUSIC, still unbelievable). So who knows anything, really? I've been surprised, and some times shocked (Joanna Gleason in INTO THE WOODS over Patti Lupone in ANYTHING GOES? Hooray!) Yes, it's pretty clear that this is a three-way question: Chita, Kristin or Kelli? The other nominees really aren't going to matter very much. That's not a slight to any of the other women who may be under consideration, just pretty much of a fact. Chita probably has the edge, as the legend that she is, but Kristin is incredible, and gives the best performance of her stage career. Kelli is a wonderful singing actress when she is cast properly (she should have won for BRIDGES, no one could have been better, imo), and as good as she may be as Anna, it's not really the winning role (Gertrude Lawrence was dying, and Donna Murphy won because Julie Andrews dropped out); it's about the King, but Ken Wantanabe has been found wanting (or at least unintelligible).
Unless her reviews are disappointing, I think Chita is the winner.