Actress in a Musical Tony predictions ? — Page 8

It sounds like the favorite here is Kristin. I think she will win.

I think you should vanish.

It doesn't necessarily feel like sentiment is pushing Kelli to the front of the race right now, much like last year. I think that's what it will come down to -- whether they'll want to vote for the big, showy performance by a Broadway fave or feel like it's time to give Kelli a Tony for a performance in which she's truly in her element. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out; but with Kristin hosting it seems like the odds are in her favor.

Ever since I read the reviews she got I've had no doubt Kristin Chenoweth will win. I hope.

I'm a huge Kelli admirer

after seeing Kristin absolutely dominate the stage last night after six days of a virus it's hard to imagine her not winning

unless as skimbleshanks and a few others have said Kelli gets it for all her bridesmaid nominatons

This is an extremely hard decision to make! I would be happy with any of these amazing ladies to take home the Tony, but I do love Kelli O'Hara, she is awesome, and as many said, it is overdue. I have not yet seen The King and I or On the Twentieth Century though - seeing one in May and the other in June, can't wait!!!

Also, Kelli's Facebook post yesterday after the nominations was lovely:

Kelli O'Hara
Feeling grateful today and proud to join these 5 ladies and especially @KChenoweth as we honor our teacher FLORENCE BIRDWELL together

I think what is interesting is that we have two sentimental favorites. Kelli because she's overdue, and Chita because...well, she's Chita. Could they split the vote and make way for Kristin? All three are giving great performances so might it come down to something like this?

I completely agree with you, Kad. I may have said this earlier in the thread or another thread, but it's hard not to be reminded of the embarrassment of riches that we had in 2003 with Stephanie D'Abruzzo, Kristin Chenoweth, genius Donna Murphy, Idina Menzel, and genius Tonya Pinkins all giving performances worthy of a win.

The nominating committee outdid themselves this year with this category. I love the range too-- one of the best classic musical theatre roles ever written played by one of the finest musical theatre stars (O'Hara), a beloved star and master of her art showcasing the musical comedy talents that deliver on the promise of her breakout Tony-winning performance in the featured category (Chenoweth), a ballet performance in a critically praised new show (Cope), a real-life character in a landmark, intimate musical (Malone), and one of the greats of all times in a new show from the writers with whom she's most associated (Rivera). A lovely lineup. It's hard to pick a winner. I vacillate between Chenoweth and O'Hara, but Chita Rivera could go all the way. Maybe one of them will dominate the precursor circuit? Brantley and Isherwood's predictions are usually stronger indicators.

It's hard to believe that Catherine Zeta-Jones has a Tony and O'Hara doesn't.

I'm not quite sure how to express myself with this, but here goes.

Kristin was amazing and such a complex and difficult role with a ton of work going into it for a perfect result. Yesterday I saw Chita. She is stunning on stage and commands such a presence. BUT. . . the amount of work and effort (her age aside) that went into the performance? Seems to pale in comparison.

I haven't seen Kelli. And while I LOVED Fun Home, those actresses who were great in their roles, just don't seem to fall into the same class as the other nominees. First of all the show really didn't completely depend on any of them in the same way as the other three did.

Plus, you have to take into consideration the competition O'Hara faced v. the competition CZJ faced. A huge factor in Tony (or any other award) wins is who a person is up against. Sometimes we may have a winner where many feel was weaker than someone who was nominated and lost (not undeservedly) in another year.

Let's look at O'Hara's competition the years she was nominated. Sara Ramirez was a scene stealer and edged her out. Then, she lost to Lachanze but I remember most people here thinking it was Patti Lupone who should have won. I don't remember many people being up in arms about O'Hara at the time. Then she lost to Patti who was in no way going to lose for her long-awaited turn as Rose in Gypsy. When O'Hara lost for Nice Work, I don't remember any buzz about her winning because people simply didn't think much of the show. She lost to Audra Macdonald's turn Porgy and Bess but I remember a lot more buzz for Cristin Miloti as the second choice than O'Hara. I really think the closest O'Hara got to making a strong case since Light in the Piazza was for Bridges but she lost the Drama Desk to Mueller and lost the Outer Critics' Circle to Audra who was out of the running when the Tony nominating committee decided her show was a play, not a musical. It seemed Mueller got the buzz at the last minute. However, outside of Mueller, O'Hara had stiff competition from Idina Menzel (a performance I was surprised about when I saw it because it blew me away and I liked the show a lot more than many BWWers) and from Sutton Foster's against-type and excellent and also award-worthy turn in Violet (a show I loved).

This year, O'Hara again faces stiff competition from Chita and Kristin. I hope O'Hara's campaign doesn't just rely on the overdue argument because that's simply not strong enough in a field with not only Chita and Kristin having star and seriously critically-acclaimed performances, but with Beth Malone who is in a show that could be considered to be the most critically-lauded this century and even Leanne Cope who also got strong notices in a critically-applauded show.

It seemed that when CZJ won, her biggest competition was Montego Glover in Memphis and as good as she was, I think O'Hara had stiffer competition for most of the years she'd been nominated.

Updated On: 4/30/15 at 02:24 PM