Posted: 12/10/25 at 9:10am
How come The Outsiders have no recouped yet?
Same for Hell's Kitchen and The Great Gatsby, but in a lesser degree.
Posted: 12/10/25 at 9:16am
It takes at least 2-3 years before most shows recoup or come close to it, if at all. The Outsiders was capitalized at $22M and Gatsby at $25M and those aren’t small numbers to get back, especially in a flailing Broadway economy
Posted: 12/10/25 at 10:22am
witchoftheeast2 said: "So am I correct in saying Aaron hasn't been out yet?"
Aaron and Lea have not been out yet. Lea is scheduled out this Sunday and next Tuesday, Aaron has scheduled absences in January.
Posted: 12/10/25 at 11:35am
Jarethan said: "AKarp2013 said: "Unless Lost Boys is great, is it possible that the Tony's will ship Best Musical next year and change the rules so there can be more revival nominees, assuming Rocky Horror gets good reviews."
They arent going to get rid of the Best Musical category at the Tonys. That would be a disaster for the industry. There are 4 eligible productions so far: Queen of Versailles, Two Strangers, Schmigadoon, Lost Boys. If these are indeed the only new musicals coming in, then there will be three nomination slots in the category, per the Tony rules. It does appear that Titanique will be announcing soon. But even with 5 new musicals, that is still only enough for 3 nominees in the category. There would need to be at least 6 eligible productions to open up a fourth slot, and at least 9 productions to open up a fifth slot. The exception to this is if two shows are tied for last place in the nomination voting, then both will get in, thus opening an additional slot.
For Revival of a Musical we have 5 eligible productions: Mamma Mia, Chess, Ragtime, Rocky Horror Show, Cats: The Jellicle Ball. Per the rules stated above, this category will also have 3 nominations slots unless there is a tie for last place during voting. It seems pretty likely that Ragtime, Rocky Horror, and Cats will be the 3 (unless they mess up Rocky Horror, but I expect not). So there's really no need for rule changing at all.
Posted: 12/10/25 at 12:58pm
binau said: "Thanks that is good you paid attention to it so we can be sure I agree then from what you described it does look like there is a little bit of an impact which is cool for Nicholas C."
yes i agree. it shows there is really good word of mouth about Nik's performance.
Posted: 12/10/25 at 1:10pm
MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "Jarethan said: "AKarp2013 said: "Unless Lost Boys is great, is it possible that the Tony's will ship Best Musical next year and change the rules so there can be more revival nominees, assuming Rocky Horror gets good reviews."
They arent going to get rid of the Best Musical category at the Tonys. That would be a disaster for the industry. There are 4 eligible productions so far: Queen of Versailles, Two Strangers, Schmigadoon, Lost Boys. If these are indeed the only new musicals coming in, then there will be three nomination slots in the category, per the Tony rules. It does appear that Titanique will be announcing soon. But even with 5 new musicals, that is still only enough for 3 nominees in the category. There would need to be at least 6 eligible productions to open up a fourth slot, and at least 9 productions to open up a fifth slot. The exception to this is if two shows are tied for last place in the nomination voting, then both will get in, thus opening an additional slot.
For Revival of a Musical we have 5 eligible productions: Mamma Mia, Chess, Ragtime, Rocky Horror Show, Cats: The Jellicle Ball. Per the rules stated above, this category will also have 3 nominations slots unless there is a tie for last place during voting. It seems pretty likely that Ragtime, Rocky Horror, and Cats will be the 3 (unless they mess up Rocky Horror, but I expect not). So there's really no need for rule changing at all."
Sad season when some shows could be nominated by default or to just to fill final slots.
I would imagine anyone with a decent new musical is trying to find a theater right now.
Posted: 12/10/25 at 1:44pm
quizking101 said:
3) TWO STRANGERS is actually doing fine for right now, though precarious. Again, even if the theatre isn’t fully packed, they are paying a high enough price for tickets. Their nut, as I previously mentioned in last weeks thread referencing Forbes, is$480,577per week, making it the cheapest run new musical post-COVID.
Putting the number in bold doesn't make it accurate.
Updated On: 12/11/25 at 01:44 PM
Posted: 12/10/25 at 7:17pm
I have a request:
Would someone be willing to start a (updating) thread that lists the current shows that have recouped, or are thought to have recouped. I religiously follow the Grosses every week, and it would be very helpful to have some additional information about what is 'entitled' to be called a HIT. (It seems that question is always coming up as to whether this one or that one is 'really' a flop.... I'm good with the definition Hit/Flop -- so I'd love to be able to have a better picture.)
Perhaps someone could start a thread and update it as time goes on -- sort of like the thread for the productions that are coming this/next year -- which is a terrific resource all the time.
THANKs in advance to anyone willing to start this.
m
Posted: 12/10/25 at 8:27pm
I wonder how far Just in Time is and if they’ll recoup by the time Groff leaves.
Posted: 12/10/25 at 8:31pm
TWO STRANGERS breakeven is $480k---BUT, it is before guarantees, and other weekly minimums--which adds almost another $100k (so everyone is right!!!)
Posted: 12/10/25 at 9:23pm
There is a weekly thread on Reddit’s Broadway board which includes estimated recoupment percentages and which shows have already recouped.
Just in Time was expected to announce it has recouped in November/December, so it should be soon.
Posted: 12/10/25 at 11:08pm
Because they are big shows with expensive weekly running costs. In the same boat is Maybe Happy Ending even with a small cast. It will be YEARS on that one.
Posted: 12/11/25 at 11:22am
TotallyEffed said: "Bring in Here We Are!!!"
No
Posted: 12/11/25 at 12:03pm
Springtime said: "There is a weekly thread on Reddit’s Broadway board which includes estimated recoupment percentages and which shows have already recouped.
Just in Time was expected to announce it has recouped in November/December, so it should be soon.
"
That guy is a college student who gets his estimates from third hand sources (and sometimes Ken Davenport). It's been proven his numbers are incorrect.
Posted: 12/11/25 at 1:12pm
witchoftheeast2 said: "TotallyEffed said: "Bring in Here We Are!!!"
No"
Correct.
Posted: 12/11/25 at 2:07pm
Sutton Ross said: "witchoftheeast2 said: "TotallyEffed said: "Bring in Here We Are!!!"
No"
Correct."
Better than Beaches or Titanique, and here we are...
Posted: 12/11/25 at 2:08pm
Mike66 said: "I have a request:
Would someone be willing to start a (updating) thread that lists the current shows that have recouped, or are thought to have recouped. I religiously follow the Grosses every week, and it would be very helpful to have some additional information about what is 'entitled' to be called a HIT. (It seems that question is always coming up as to whether this one or that one is 'really' a flop.... I'm good with the definition Hit/Flop -- so I'd love to be able to have a better picture.)
Perhaps someone could start a thread and update it as time goes on -- sort of like the thread for the productions that are coming this/next year -- which is a terrific resource all the time.
THANKs in advance to anyone willing to start this.
m"
Do it yourself…??
Posted: 12/11/25 at 3:03pm
I WOULD do it -- if I had the knowledge and the insight and ability to sort all of it out.
I dont -- so I was hoping that someone -- who does have the information -- would consider doing it.
I wouldnt know where to begin.....
m
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