It's early days, but Moulin Rouge! is shaping up to be a smash, the biggest hit musical since Hamilton. It's one of those shows where the anticipation has been building for years, and certainly since the Boston tryout. Based on what I've read, I'm not sure how much I would like it, and the sticker shock/partial view seats/differences with the film might be problems for folks like me, but I don't think those issues will matter at the box office. This musical is an event, a spectacle that people will pay up to see.
I am curious what impact Moulin Rouge! will have on other shows. Hadestown and Ain't Too Proud ought to be fine and the long-running hits will be fine too. But musicals like Tootsie and Beetlejuice seem like they might become more vulnerable with another show around that people feel like they have to see (if they can afford it).
Perhaps I'm overthinking the show's impact. Everyone blamed Hamilton for killing every musical in its wake (except for Waitress), and I was never sure that was right. But a must-see show soaks up attention and dollars. I remember seeing the OBC of Hamilton on my first New York City trip in many years, and saw Shuffle Along the night before. The well-dressed woman sitting next to me at Shuffle Along, unhappy that her husband refused to pay the high Hamilton ticket prices, didn't attempt to hide her jealousy that I was going. It was almost awkward.