MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "The one caveat for Back to the Future is that Universal is one of the producers (their theatrical arm) and there could be a world in which they want to pump money into it to keep it running if they feel it helps the overall brand they are trying to build (with tours and other sit down productions). But yes, the show is simply too expensive to run at these grosses. A Jan/Feb closing seems imminent.
I don't know anything off the top of my head that is looking to come in that would fill the Winter Garden. Smash is the only "big" musical without an announced theater...but I'm fairly certain they have the Imperial. Perhaps Florence Welsch's Gatsby? I don't know how big of a production Matt Doyle's Sinatra or Jonathan Groff's Bobby Darin project are, but on paper they don't seem right for the theater. In any case, even if no show wants the theater, BTTF would need a sizeable rent discount to keep going."
I feel like anytime a major studio is backing a show we get a lot of speculation about how much money they are willing to lose to keep it running, and then they end up closing the show just like any other smart producer would. I remember back when Shrek was running, there was so much "Dreamworks will keep it running just to keep it running" talk, even within the theatre itself. At one point the cast were told not to worry, they'd be staying open at least until the newest Shrek movie was released (I think it was Shrek the Fourth?), and then they got their closing notice a few weeks after being told that, and well before that movie opened in theaters.