HogansHero said: "Baseball is 6 weeks in, outdoors, and only now relaxing social distancing. Broadway is 4 months away, indoors, and can't have social distancing. But for those of us who have followed both, the process has been evolving, one step at a time, based on science. I expect the same. The theatre district is currently experiencing hardly any positivity (well under 1%) and only 1-2 new cases a day. The 1st shot vaccination rate is 84% (78% if you include the ineligible population). That influences things, but what will that number be in another month? The goal of the industry is to make everyone comfortable to return, because it is literally an existential baseline for many shows."
Thursday's CDC news and the tentative stories about Hamilton and other shows leave me increasingly convinced that Broadway is just going to let it up. Part of the reason, I think, is that the alternatives are almost as impractical as social distancing.
Nobody can stop people filming shows, at least without a lot of effort. Enforcing a mask mandate... good luck. And the vaccination requirement that you and I have assumed would happen... I am less sure about that too, unless Broadway shows turn into superspreader events that kill audience members or make a bunch of people seriously ill. New York wants tourists to return, and so the state's own requirements for events (ballgames and concert venues) will be difficult to apply to visitors from other states or countries without a lot of effort.
There are four months between now and Sept. 14, and maybe I'm too skeptical about the success of vaccine efforts or a more concerted effort to require proof of vaccination or negative tests. Jeffrey Seller's comment about not requiring Hamilton patrons to be vaccinated feels like a tell. Did he really just shoot off his mouth without talking to the landlord or key government officials? I doubt it but could be wrong.
I know the industry and the government is going to leave open the possibility of requiring vaccinations and tests. But I just don't think it's going to happen unless the initial flurry of people eager to see a show peters out quickly or there are serious health/PR problems.
As for me, I wasn't planning a fall/winter trip anyway so my opinion is irrelevant. But what would make me feel comfortable to return (vaccination and mask requirements, at least at first) would be a turn-off for many others.
So I'll wait and watch and try to catch a few local shows if safety protocols are followed, CDC be damned. And for everyone's sake, I hope my concerns are unfounded.