Kad - well stated and I’m so sorry for your loss. I’ve tried to stay mostly quiet largely because I’m no immunologist although I listen to them and believe what they say. But here I go.
A lot seems to depend on as Kad says what hospitalizations and Covid deaths look like for the weeks to come. Related to that, it also depends on whether Omricon becomes the dominate strain not just in NYC, but the United States. And if Omricon is the final dominant strain (or more likely, if the future strains are less dangerous to the vaccinated, immunocompromised, and unvaccinated alike).
Best case scenario is probably that Omricon indeed does become the dominant (and last serious) variant in the U.S. with little repercussion to the vaccinated & related to that, less Covid hospitalizations and deaths.
But we don’t know quite yet what the future holds. I saw in passing on the news this weekend that Israel is bracing for its fourth wave. And they’re a well vaccinated country. That’s worrying. But I also saw that while hospitals and hospital staff are currently overwhelmed, Covid hospitalizations are way down from a year ago. They are overwhelmed due to all the illnesses and they were delayed in getting treated at the height of the pandemic.
I believe the 7-day average for Covid deaths is around 1300/day. Will a more contagious variant (Omricon) that is less deadly result in less deaths as it takes greater hold or will it equal out to what we have with Delta? I don’t think anyone can predict that quite yet.
So I think caution is still prudent as inconvenient as it is. At least for now. We have under-vaccinated states (like my state of Oklahoma) and under vaccinated countries. My state wants us to believe we have no cases of Omricon yet (Riiiiight!) although every state around us has detected Omricon A tactful person would say that’s because Oklahoma is under-detecting and under-reporting. A less tactful person would say it’s willful ignorance. My last point is that we don’t quite know yet what will become of the unvaccinated populations of both the United States and the world. And I say this selfishly. Will the unvaccinated (and infected vaccinated) become incubators for less contagious, less dangerous variants (I sure hope so) or more contagious, more dangerous variants that evade our current vaccinations. The info on Omricon seems to be mixed: less dangerous (to the vaccinated), but more contagious & more likely to result in breakthrough infections among the vaccinated.
Having said all that, right now I’m still planning to keep my January 4-6 trip (none of my three planned shows have had a Covid-specific cancellation so far). If I get Omricon specifically on my trip, I figure I will have mild symptoms. But I’m still masking up here despite being boosted and largely avoiding indoor dining in my under vaccinated, largely unmasked state.
So I’m trying to be neither be Chicken Little nor an ostrich with its head in the sand.
sorry for the dissertation-length post
