Chances of a Strike? — Page 5

Also, depending on if a strike happens and for how long, it could affect new shows coming in as well, such as TWO STRANGERS (since I can’t imagine the musicians are rehearsing during a strike), as well as heavily impact shows in previews that are in precarious positions (QOV), and shows that have a front-heavy advance the first few weeks (CHESS)

Updated On: 10/21/25 at 12:33 PM

I got indications from a few friends that we should know Thursday or Friday. We will see.

does anyone know what the musicians are asking for and why they are unhappy?

GiantsInTheSky2 said: "A Hamilton conspiracy theorist wasn’t on my bingo card for this fall, but here we are."

It must be dump-on-Lin-Manuel time. Does that mean we can stop dumping on Kristin?

KKeller6 said: "Kad said: "...that article entirely undercuts what you're claiming by breaking down what that money went to."

Remember when Chrysler and GM were about to go bankrupt? In the same way that the federal government came in to bail out auto companies, it’s doing the same thing for all of show business with this legislation,” he said. “It’s returning us to health and it’s protecting the well-being of our employees.”

"Seller said that none of the money would go to the show’s producers (including him) or its investors, and none would be used as royalties for artists (including the show’s creator, Lin-Manuel Miranda)."

Please. You know better than this. I've read your posts. You're an intelligent guy. The money doesn'thave to go directly into their pockets. But the money they would have spent on rehearsals theyno longer have to spend. So, it's indirectly in their pockets.

claiming the money is returning his show to" health" is utterly ridiculous. I mean it holds no weight whatsoever.
"Instead, he said, the money will be used to remount the shuttered productions"

Hamilton sat in the theatre untouched and needed a day of two of work to get ready technically wise. And most of that work was dusting off the non existent set.
"

So you've got nothing but strongly biased conjecture here, got it. If you've got something damning, by all means, share it, but absolutely nothing outlined in that article supports what you're alleging or even seems like unreasonable expenditure during an unprecedented and, at the time, indefinite industry shutdown. You're alleging they committed tens of millions of dollars of fraud, so, y'know, you better have something better than a hunch to support it. 

The only eyebrow-raising thing in that article is, as kdogg said, the fact that theater owners were apparently demanding rent during the shutdown. Now that is truly outrage worthy. 

Updated On: 10/21/25 at 05:29 PM

So you've got nothing but strongly biased conjecture here, got it. If you've got something damning, by all means, share it, but absolutely nothing outlined in that article supports what you're alleging or even seems like unreasonable expenditure during an unprecedented and, at the time, indefinite industry shutdown. You're alleging they committed tens of millions of dollars of fraud, so, y'know, you better have something better than a hunch to support it.
 

Couple of things here...the article was just confirming they received the money. Here's some facts about the PPP

The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) provided forgivable loans to help businesses maintain payroll during the pandemic by covering costs like employee wages, mortgage interest, rent, and utilities. 
 

• To be eligible for forgiveness, a business had to use at least 60% of the loan for payroll costs. 

Since we know they didn't pay actors, stagehands, musicians, wardrobe, box office, porters, ushers, etc. according to the article they got at least $30M, (but let's face it, they probably got the full $50M) 60% of $30M is $18M. Who got that money? But, I will certainly admit there is a great chance these producers didn't literally break the law. I was being hyperbolic there, because they certainly didn't act in good faith. 

 

Ive been following this board for awhile now. Im shocked that so many seem to side with the producer's on most issues. It's doubtful either the actors or musicians will gain much in these agreements. But, of course, I could be wrong about that.

 Also, Im not trying to turn this into a discussion about "Hamilton". Im just trying to point out that these producers and their hit men at Proskauer-Rose are not your friend. They are against any kind of fair deal whatsoever because they know they hold all the power in this. As someone who's been involved in this business for 45 years, I can attest that's not always the way it was. You realize today you're paying top dollar for shows with little or no set, little or no scene changes, and far from a full orchestra. It's shameful. 

 

Good Friday?  Are you saying people get gifts during Good Friday?  Anyway, I think a strike is bad for everyone, workers, producers, and audiences. 

HogansHero said: "Good Friday was just me being silly."

 

I got it and had a good chuckle!

 

HogansHero said: "EDSOSLO858 said: "If a deal isn't reached by Thursday morning, Local 802 musicians are preparing to strikeimmediately."

[sorry-found this unsent in my browser from earlier]

I have no idea what you are trying to convey here. Certainly, the union has been "preparing" for a while now, and they have taken anauthorization vote, but "preparing" and "immediately" (bold face or not) are in the nature of an oxymoron. Negotiators and mediators do not pull all-nighters when their efforts are doomed to failure. And if they don't know whether or when, I certainly hope you are not suggesting you know something they don't.

The poster was conveying a direct quote from the union that was covered as a news item by Playbill.com, BroadwayWorld, and others. It would seem your objection is with the union's statement, since the poster wasn't suggesting anything and was simply quoting. 

https://www.broadwayworld.com/article/AFM-Local-802-Prepared-to-Strike-Immediately-If-Contract-Isnt-Reached-By-Thursday-20251021

"AFM Local 802, the union representing Broadway musicians, has released a statement from Local 802 President Bob Suttmann, noting that they are prepared to strike immediately if a new contract isn't reached by Thursday.

The statement reads: “The Broadway musicians represented by Local 802 AFM are going into mediation on Wednesday, Oct. 22. If we do not have a new contract by Thursday morning, we are prepared to strike immediately. We are hopeful that we can reach an agreement.”"

Updated On: 10/22/25 at 07:33 AM

kdogg36 said: "MezzoDiva47 said: "and yet the Hamiltons and Wickeds of the world are making obscene amounts of money"

Would Broadway theater even be a going concern at this pointwithout long-running moneymakers like those two (andLion King)?"I think there are people who still invest in hopes that the show will be the next big thing.  If you think about it, in addition to those, we have Chicago, BOM, Harry Potter, maybe MJ, Hadestown.  

The issue truly seems to be that new shows are insurmountably expensive to mount, but by many estimates, musicians only make up around 5% of a show's budget. The theater landlords, however, are making money hand over fist. The only time this information was made public, it showed that in 23-24, Jujamcyn made a pure profit of $32 million dollars (via Philip Boroff's Broadway Journal) That's just Jujamcyn, they own only 7 Broadway theaters. If all rents are relatively equal, (are they? I wish we knew, but this is the best public data to my knowledge!) we're looking at landlords making a pure profit of over $160 million dollars. These are not individual producers, this is Nederlander, Shubert, and ATG, and this is pure profit, after costs are taken into account. 

I just did some math, and for every musician employed by every theater (344 according to Broadwaymusicians.com), the annual healthcare costs are $5.6 million . That's just 3.5% of total profit estimations. If the league bumped up contributions to just 4%, it could literally keep hundreds of musicians' insurance plans from going insolvent. Again, we're asking them to give up a small percentage of their pure profits, not grosses. 

I do think producing shows is a very difficult and risky endeavor, and as a musician I respect that. However, the issue for producers these days is not the cost of labor, it's the cost of renting theaters. The league needs to do internal housekeeping and stop trying to distract the public and waste everyone's time trying to whittle away healthcare and small cost of living increases for the very people who make their product.

BoringBoredBoard40 said: "the fact 802 is using a strike deadline publicly means the negotating parties are likely still way apart, i see this playing out as a strike lasting through the weekend, causing chaos and then by tuesday bothsides take a contract neither is super happy with but 802 atleast feels like they "won" on"

I don't think there is "winning" or "losing". These negotiations are about compromise. And yes, 802 will be happy if they feel like they've gotten a fair deal. But the League's definition of "fair" at this point doesn't seem to be the same.