Okay so last season we had a bunch of obvious winners (Doubt for Best Play, Spamalot for Musical, Norbert Leo Butz for Actor, Victoria Clark for actress among many others) and in previous years as well, multiple people/shows could have been picked from the litter of performances/shows that year to be the winner of the Tony in their respective category before the nominations even came out. I honestly, however, can't think of one show/performer/aspect of a show that has the Tony already tied up this year. Personally, I think the closest we have to this is Sweeney for BEST REVIVAL and I honestly don't think its all that definite a choice considering The Pajama Game got its equal review-wise and is a much bigger public hit.
And it's funny too because the shows this season all have mostly been lackluster from what I hear. I havent seen many shows this season (although the ones I did see were good) but its not like this is a phenomenally good season for theater. There have been many flops (as well as hits) and its been win-or-lose this year. So why is there no clear front-runner for any category this year? Is it because the year was so good or so mediocre?
Ideas???
The closest to locks IMO are Sweeney for Best Revival and Orchestrations and The History Boys for Best Play. All of the acting categories are up for grabs, which I agree is unusual.
I think the following are locks, if not near locks:
THE DROWSY CHAPERONE: Best Musical
THE HISTORY BOYS: Best Play
Patti LuPone: Best Actress
AWAKE AND SING!: Best Play Revival
SWEENEY TODD: Best Musical Revival
Sarah Travis, SWEENEY TODD: Best Orchestrations
John Doyle, SWEENEY TODD: Best Direction of a Musical
Nicholas Hyntner, THE HISTORY BOYS: Best Direction of a Play
THE DROWSY CHAPERONE: Best Book
Likely:
Richard Griffiths, THE HISTORY BOYS: Best Actor in a Play
THE COLOR PURPLE: Best Score
I don't think Color Purple is even close to a lock for score.
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/5/04
I wouldn't automatically discount Faith Healer. It got nearly across the board raves, while Awake and Sing received several mixed reviews.
Broadway Legend Joined: 5/20/05
I would say LaChanze has a fair chance winning against Patti...at least I hope!
I'm not sure if LuPone is a lock though; I think LaChanze's performance will give her a run for her money...I understand that Patti's performance has re-invented who Mrs. Lovett is, but I think the journey that LaChanze takes Celie on is really breathtaking. We'll see though.
Cheers,
Christopher
Really? You don't think that Jersey Boys stands a chance of winning musical?
I think JLY is pretty close to being a lock for Best Actor in a Musical.
I agree with Katurian. I think Jersey Boys will take Best Musical, but it will be close between that and Drowsy.
And JLY is pretty close to a lock, with Michael Cerveris and Harry Connick Jr. not far behind.
Tony *usually* likes big names so I wouldn't be surprised if Harry Connick, Jr ends up winning Best Actor.
First of all, last year Spamalot was NOT an "obvious winner." Secondly, Drowsy is HARDLY a lock for Best Musical. The only thing "For Sure" about that category is that it will be EITHER Drowsy or Jersey Boys.
Great- I was getting scared there for a moment.
I think the only lock is SWEENEY for revival. MAYBE Patti for Actress.
I don't think La Chanze is a threat to Patti.
In terms of reviews, La Chanze's were good, but Patti's were raves. Patti also has the edge, because she IS a name, and she's absolutely brilliant in the role. La Chanze isn't brilliant...she's fine.
I'm glad someone said it...I didn't think Spamalot was a sure thing last year at ALL.
And I'm still bitter about that win...
It didn't deserve to win, but SPAMALOT was the obvious winner from day one.
Well, maybe I'm naive, but I didn't think Spamalot was a lock. Certainly the front runner, but there was plenty of speculation that Spelling Bee or Piazza could pull an upset (a la Avenue Q beating Wicked the previous year)
Sweeney's practically guaranteed for best revival. But last season 25APCSB was the dark horse and it took home an award. Anything can happen.
Broadway Legend Joined: 5/15/03
SWEENEY TODD and HISTORY BOYS!
Broadway Star Joined: 2/7/06
Is Drowsy Chaperone really a lock for Best Book? I mean, before it opened, everyone was saying that Jersey Boys was the the lock in the category.
I hope LaChanze wins best actress. And I'm still furious about Spamalot winning last year. Piazza was robbed.
I am not sure that one should dismiss The Color Purple and LaChanze so readily. The Drowsy Chaperone is having a hard time at the box office and it is not clear whether it has mass appeal. (The fact that it's featherweight is part of its charm, but it would make it hard to win against something that *seems* more substantive like TCP if it is not selling tickets and TCP is.) It is hard to tell whether Jersey Boys is going to be hurt by the "jukebox" label (yes, other musicals with non-original scores have won, but the "jukebox" label wasn't as much of a stigma back then). There is also the "Oprah factor" -- rewarding TCP will encourage other "name" investors to do what she did.
LaChanze has a few things going for her: she has never won before, while LuPone obviously has; she is a Broadway baby who has paid her dues and has made it through rough times but doesn't have popular acclaim -- not that it should matter, but her life will be affected more by winning the Tony than LuPone's would; TCP may not win in any other major category and this would be the place for it to be rewarded.
I personally don't think the 'jukebox' title is in the same realm as Jersey Boys. I feel like the show has gotten past that, or it wouldn't be one of the highest grossing shows right now, having been open since November. It has long surpassed the cursed 'jukebox' type.
Personally I don't agree at all that Sweeney is a lock for revival or Patti for that matter. In fact, the only thing I think is a "lock" this season is that new musical will either be JB or DC. Although I suppose History Boys is pretty much a lock too. But that's it!
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