Funny you mentioned Elton John... I really liked BILLY ELLIOT as a production, mostly for its direction, craft, and amazing performances, and felt the score was a weak link. Lately, though, the last few months, I've found myself strangely going back to that album more and more. I think, maybe, in retrospect that score congealed somewhere in my mind far after the show closed and now I miss it. Weird reaction, that.
Anyways, it'll come as no surprise to John Adams that I'm rooting for Minchin; I find the music vastly more complex and evocative, and like to hope that if the voters are considering the scores solely on their merits, MATILDA should have it in a cakewalk. That said, as Kad and others all rightly point out, awards are rarely ever adjudicated so purely.
Words don't deserve that kind of malarkey. They're innocent, neutral, precise, standing for this, describing that, meaning the other, so if you look after them you can build bridges across incomprehension and chaos. But when they get their corners knocked off, they're no good anymore…I don't think writers are sacred, but words are. They deserve respect. If you get the right ones in the right order, you can nudge the world a little.