NYT Tony Awards 2022: Who Will Win (and Who Should)

[Sally Durant Plummer]

Posted: 5/18/22 at 4:00pm

Didn't see a thread to discuss this. The usual NYT list.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/18/theater/tony-awards-2022.html

[east side story]

Posted: 5/18/22 at 4:15pm

Jesse Green lost me at his prediction for Best Play Revival.

 

 

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 5/18/22 at 4:16pm

Eh, seems pretty off to me.

[MemorableUserName]

Posted: 5/18/22 at 4:17pm

Some of the predictions are dubious, but glad to see the Elder mention. He most certainly should have been nominated.

[joshdog2014]

Posted: 5/18/22 at 4:22pm

Is Kenita Miller not the favorite for featured actress in a play? I know it’s a fairly open category, but have seen her name thrown out a lot. Also interesting to see his predictions of Myles Frost and Joaquina Kalukango for the musical leads. I think most of us are expecting his “should win”s to take those categories.

Updated On: 5/18/22 at 04:22 PM

[Wick3]

Posted: 5/18/22 at 4:27pm

Only 5 out of 17 match the will win/should win. I know it’s a tough year but I would have thought the NYT chief critic would vote more along the lines of the majority of Tony voters.

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 5/18/22 at 5:04pm

What a freaking mess. Jesse Green remains the prime example of the "Our expectations for you were low, but HOLY F***" meme. 

[JBroadway]

Posted: 5/18/22 at 6:15pm

Wick3 said: "I would have thought the NYT chief critic would vote more along the lines of the majority of Tony voters."

I wouldn’t necessarily think so. A critic’s vantage point is different from a member of the industry. Not to mention it’s just one person’s opinion  - I’m sure there are many Tony voters whose taste IS more aligned with Green’s, even if they aren’t the majority. 

I think there are valid criticisms to be made when the most “important” critic appears to be severely out of step with public opinion. And maybe you could say that about Green, but this particular instance doesn’t strike me as an example of that. A lot of his “should win” picks are pretty much in line with popular opinion, or at least opinions that are fairly common or reasonable (e.g, it’s not like he’s saying Diana deserves Best Musical).
 

I think it’s actually more telling that his PREDICTIONS differ so wildly from what most people are predicting. Either he’s very perceptive, or his taste aligns more closely with the Tony voters than even he imagines himself to be. Time will tell. 

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 5/18/22 at 6:40pm

This list is always good for a laugh.

[CableCableCable]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 2:13am

In 2019, Jesse Green said Hadestown shouldn't win. In 2022, he's saying Strange Loop shouldn't win. I.... 

'Cause critics clinically deny us
Then deny implicit bias
With their vanity supported
By a system that's distorted

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/14/theater/tony-awards-critics-picks.html

Updated On: 5/19/22 at 02:13 AM

[bwayobsessed]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 6:18am

Can someone copy and paste to get around the paywall?

[fashionguru_23]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 8:20am

The disconnect between the Should/Will Win is always there. I remember back to when Jesse Green was on Theatre Talk. He wasn't always right, but there was an interesting conversation about critics, and if they still voted for the Tonys, there might be some different outcomes (Fela vs. Memphis, Kinky Boots vs Matilda, etc.)

[Kad]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 8:59am

I’m surprised that the Times isn’t having its other critics do their own lists. 

[BroadwayJane]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 9:06am

I thought Jesse's list with some exceptions was well thought out. The one indisputable prediction is the one award for Paradise Square. Saw it yesterday and that one award is a slam dunk. The rest of the production appeared like it was conceived by a focus group. The balcony was near empty and the orchestra appeared about 2/3 full.              

[YvanEhtNioj]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 9:27am

He really thinks Trouble in Mind is the best revival?

 Also Myles winning over Jaquel is not gonna happen imo. 

[ShowBro]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 9:45am

bwayobsessed said: "Can someone copy and paste to get around the paywall?"

 

The only fact published in this piece is that “Caroline, Or Change” should win for best revival. I also think “Pass Over” should have had some nominations as well. And yes, Michael R Jackson deserves all of the awards plus Best Musical. 
 

Best Play

WILL WIN

“The Lehman Trilogy”

SHOULD WIN

“Skeleton Crew”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

“Dana H.”

“Pass Over”

“A Case for the Existence of God”*

Best Musical

WILL WIN

“A Strange Loop”

SHOULD WIN

“Girl From the North Country”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

“Oratorio for Living Things”*

Best Play Revival

WILL WIN

“Trouble in Mind”

SHOULD WIN

“Trouble in Mind”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

“Cyrano de Bergerac”*

“Wedding Band”*

Best Musical Revival

WILL WIN

“Company”

SHOULD WIN

“Caroline, or Change”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

“Into the Woods”*

Best Actor in a Play

WILL WIN

Simon Russell Beale, “The Lehman Trilogy”

SHOULD WIN

David Threlfall, “Hangmen”

or

David Morse, “How I Learned to Drive”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

Jon Michael Hill, “Pass Over”

James McAvoy, “Cyrano de Bergerac”*

Best Actress in a Play

WILL WIN

LaChanze, “Trouble in Mind”

SHOULD WIN

Deirdre O’Connell, “Dana H.”

or

Mary-Louise Parker, “How I Learned to Drive”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

Emily Davis, “Is This a Room”

Mary Wiseman, “At the Wedding”*

Brittany Bradford, “Wedding Band”*

Best Actor in a Musical

WILL WIN

Myles Frost, “MJ”

SHOULD WIN

Jaquel Spivey, “A Strange Loop”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

Jay O. Sanders, “Girl From the North Country”

Best Actress in a Musical

WILL WIN

Joaquina Kalukango, “Paradise Square”

SHOULD WIN

Sharon D Clarke, “Caroline, or Change”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

Kearstin Piper Brown, “Intimate Apparel”*

Best Featured Actor in a Play

WILL WIN

Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Take Me Out”

SHOULD WIN

Chuck Cooper, “Trouble in Mind”

or

Ron Cephas Jones, “Clyde’s”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

Brandon J. Dirden, “Skeleton Crew”

Brandon J. Dirden, “Take Me Out”

Tony Awards: The Best New Musical Nominees

Best Featured Actress in a Play

WILL WIN

Phylicia Rashad, “Skeleton Crew”

SHOULD WIN

Phylicia Rashad

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

Gaby French, “Hangmen”

Evelyn Miller, “Cyrano de Bergerac”*

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

WILL WIN

Matt Doyle, “Company”

SHOULD WIN

John-Andrew Morrison, “A Strange Loop”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

Claybourne Elder, “Company”

Austin Scott, “Girl From the North Country”

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

WILL WIN

Patti LuPone, “Company”

SHOULD WIN

Patti LuPone

or

Jennifer Simard, “Company”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

Julia Lester, “Into the Woods”*

Best Director of a Play

WILL WIN

Sam Mendes, “The Lehman Trilogy”

SHOULD WIN

Sam Mendes

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

Tina Satter, “Is This a Room”

Best Director of a Musical

WILL WIN

Marianne Elliott, “Company”

SHOULD WIN

Conor McPherson, “Girl From the North Country”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

Michael Longhurst, “Caroline, or Change”

Lee Sunday Evans, “Oratorio for Living Things”*

Best Book of a Musical

WILL WIN

Michael R. Jackson, “A Strange Loop”

SHOULD WIN

Michael R. Jackson

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

Toby Marlow and Lucy Moss, “Six”

Best Score

WILL WIN

Michael R. Jackson, “A Strange Loop”

SHOULD WIN

Toby Marlow and Lucy Moss, “Six”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

Heather Christian, “Oratorio for Living Things”*

Best Choreography

WILL WIN

Christopher Wheeldon, “MJ”

SHOULD WIN

Camille A. Brown, “For Colored Girls Who Have Considered Suicide/ When the Rainbow Is Enuf”

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

Michelle Dorrance, “Flying Over Sunset”

Best Ensemble

SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED

The six queens of “Six”

The seven colors of “For Colored Girls”

The 12 singers of “Oratorio for Living Things”*

 

[MemorableUserName]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 9:51am

CableCableCable said: "In 2019, Jesse Green said Hadestown shouldn't win. In 2022, he's saying Strange Loop shouldn't win. I....

'Cause critics clinically deny us
Then deny implicit bias
With their vanity supported
By a system that's distorted

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/14/theater/tony-awards-critics-picks.html"

Funny enough, saying something should win doesn't necessarily mean you're saying something else shouldn't win. Just because one has a preferred winner doesn't mean everything or anything else in a category is unworthy of winning. That bit of nuance may have escaped you.

He (and Brantley) chose "The Prom" as his "should win" that year. What implicit bias are you claiming he had against Hadestown? For that matter, what implicit bias are you displaying to say something other than a gay-themed musical should have won?

[GlindatheGood22]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 9:55am

I'm pretty out of the loop with this season's early shows, but is LaChanze really slated to win Best Actress in a Play? The only performances I've seen in that category are Deirdre O'Connell and MLP, but, based solely on buzz I've heard/read on this board and from friends, I would have thought the favorite was Gabby Beans.

Updated On: 5/19/22 at 09:55 AM

[Soozie]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 12:14pm

Don't understand some of his "should have been nominated" ones as they were not Broadway productions. 

[dramamama611]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 12:17pm

^Yes, while I find it annoying, too, he explains his why - just an opportunity to sing their praises, and because he can.  (As this holds no weight on anything.)

[Soozie]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 12:37pm

dramamama611 said: "^Yes, while I find it annoying, too, he explains his why - just an opportunity to sing their praises, and because he can. (As this holds no weight on anything.)"

Thank you. I cannot access the article and so was just commenting on the list posted here. 

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 3:34pm

GlindatheGood22 said: "I'm pretty out of the loop with this season's early shows, but is LaChanze really slated to win Best Actress in a Play? The only performances I've seen in that category are Deirdre O'Connell and MLP, but, based solely on buzz I've heard/read on this board and from friends, I would have thought the favorite was Gabby Beans."

Beans is my "should win," but I thought that it was supposed to be Deirdre or MLP, lol

[Georgeanddot2]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 3:43pm

Would it hurt Jesse to have some taste?

[ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 3:55pm

LaChanzes is not expected to win, no. Mary Louise Parker is considered the frontrunner, and it seems like general sentiment is her win’s secure, but if she lost it would be to Deirdre O’Connell.

It’s odd to me how he’s predicting Trouble in Mind to win both Actress and Revival but not Featured Actor, which is probably their best shot. I agree with him predicting Ferguson, but it just seems inconsistent with his other choices.

[CityLights3]

Posted: 5/19/22 at 7:18pm

Trouble In Mind…Best Play Revival…WILL WIN

LaChanze…Lead Actress in a Play…WILL WIN

With NO disrespect to the production or LaChanze’s performance in it.  What the hell is he smoking?

In my minds eye and anyone that I have talked to, could not be more certain that Mary Louise Parker is taking home her third Tony Award in that category.  

And as big fan of this production of HOW I LEARNED TO DRIVE, I would love for it and Paula Vogel to win the Tony Award it and she so rightly deserve for Best Revival of a Play.  That said, I realize the swift TAKE ME OUT and poignant FOR COLOR GIRLS WHO CONSIDER SUICIDE WHEN THE RAINBOW IS ENUF both are in a three way race for one of the more exciting awards this time around.  One thing I’m 99.9% sure of is that TROUBLE IN MIND isn’t anywhere near the WILL WIN.  

NY Times, your theatre critics are more than just a hot mess right now.  They’re more like a towering inferno.  Can you please bring some class back to the theatre section before the critics that are holding up shop now make it go extinct?

Updated On: 5/19/22 at 07:18 PM