Official Way Too Early 2018 Tony Predictions Thread- Page 20

[Jessetenny]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 5:31pm

I feel that it may be worth noting that Jessie Mueller didn't get nominated for the OCC for On a Clear Day... but got nominated for the Tony. I hope this bodes well for her.

[Elegance101]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 5:35pm

Jessetenny said: "I feel that it may be worth noting that Jessie Mueller didn't get nominated for the OCC for On a Clear Day... but got nominated for the Tony. I hope this bodes well for her."

However, there’s a difference between nominating an exciting fresh face and a seasoned Broadway star. Not saying she won’t get nominated, but they might have the thought of “she’s had it before and she’s not giving her best performance, we expected a little more from her.” I’m thinking they might lean toward the newcomers this year...

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 5:37pm

We'll find out the official ruling soon enough, but for impatient me who is enjoying making her mock nominations list... do we know if My Fair Lady's orchestrations will be considered? Or are they the original orchestrations? Hard to tell from the IBDb page.

I'm assuming Carousel will be eligible because of the extended dance sequences...?

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 8:00pm

I actually thought that Jessie Mueller's performance was one of the few good things about the production. She gave a wonderfully cold and strong portrayal of Julie which I liked. It's just that a good bit of her material had been cut.

My Fair Lady is using the original orchestrations. Carousel has entirely new ones.

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 8:17pm

I think OoTI is going to win Revival for reasons expressed in this thread, AND because I wonder if Tony voters are sick of rewarding Sher and his well-done Lincoln Center revivals (starting with South Pacific beating what some would argue was a more inspired production of Sunday in the Park with George). Although both OoTI and My Fair Lady have similar show scores and both received raves and excellent reviews, some of MFL's reviewers couldn't help but compare it to Sher's other shows and maybe MFL isn't really competing against OoTI but Sher's previous productions. This will help usher in a OoTI win. Plus the idea of the little show that could and all of that beating the Goliath of Lincoln Center would be delicious for many Tony voters to want to see happen just to make it an exciting night.

Updated On: 4/24/18 at 08:17 PM

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 8:24pm

GeorgeandDot said: "My Fair Lady is using the original orchestrations. Carousel has entirely new ones."

Thank you! Now I can make my totally fake and useless but informed nominations list. (Aside from the Taylor Louderman situation.)

Unrelatedly... I just had a Three Tall Women ad pop up on my screen, which reminded me of the most insanely glowing press quotes, including "the best revival of the year... the best revival of any year," and "The best show I've seen all year? This one. Far and away. One of the best things I have ever seen." I'm sure Glenda Jackson has Lead Actress in the bag, but is there any chance at all that it also wins for Best Revival over Angels in America? A few weeks ago I would've laughed at the idea of anything but Angels winning... but these reviews are through the roof. 

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 8:27pm

Going off on the idea that Tony winners aren't always about quality and who received the best critical notices (we really know that to be true), but having other factors involved, here is how I think Best Actor and Actress will go down from a "outside the actual performance" perspective:

I think Henry is a favorite over Haddon-Paton (who did NOT receive ho-hum reviews as characterized in this thread but actually received some excellent reviews) because Henry is a veteran Broadway actor now and he will have the hard working Broadway actor finally getting his due narrative over Hadden-Paton who is a newcomer to the Broadway stage and doesn't have the same contacts. I can see Slater and Shaloub nabbing it if the voters aren't feeling too strongly about anyone in particular. 

Lenk will most likely win Best Actress because people will remember her in Indecent and awarding her brilliant performance in A Band's Visit will allow some voters to feel like they are also rewarding her for her well-received performance in Indecent as well. It's sort of like Ruth Ann Miles winning for The King and I over some tough competition (I know some say the Fun Home actresses canceled each other out but I don't know if that's true). She gave a new perspective to Lady Thiang, gained excellent notices for her rendition for "Something Wonderful", and some pundits said voters may remember her fondly in Here Lies Love. Plus, her announcing the Outer Critics Circle Award was a clear campaign move just so she would not be forgotten considering she's not eligible for any of the precursors. I bet we'll see her present at the Drama Desks as well. She's playing the game, and I respect that.

Updated On: 4/24/18 at 08:27 PM

[supersam1026]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 8:30pm

One thing that I think is important to note (and why I believe MFL will win) is the producing teams. Rudin and LCT both have proven records of being able to run successful campaigns, Ken Davenport does not. He often relies on these cheap stunts (Kickstarter for Spring Awakening performance, "tweet seats" at Godspell, etc) that I don't think a lot of people respect. He's up against 2 of the most successful producing giants in quite some time, I don't think he can overcome that.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 8:34pm

Don't get me wrong, I love this production of OOTI, but to imagine it taking the Tony over Lincoln Center's breathtaking My Fair Lady makes me laugh. I cannot see it happening.

Also, at this point, my predictions for Best Actress are Ambrose, Kilgore, Lenk, Louderman, and Murin.

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 8:37pm

I think and hope that OOTI is going to take it. If you're comparing two fairly flawless productions and one of them is flawless + an innovative reinvention, that one should be given the Tony. But I hope they both win in terms of ticket sales and long and healthy runs. 

[JBroadway]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 8:40pm

Sorry if someone else has already said this (it's a long thread and I haven't been following it religiously)

But could there be a scenario in which Arden wins direction, but My Fair Lady wins revival? I know it's rare for a Direction Tony to go to a revival that doesn't also win Best Revival (as far as I can tell, the last time it happened was in 2006 - Doyle won for Sweeney Todd, but The Pajama Game won Best Revival). But maybe it's time for it to happen again! 

Updated On: 4/24/18 at 08:40 PM

[QueenAlice]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 8:43pm

I think a David Cromer will win for Directing THE BANDS VISIT.

I also think the conversation about Ken Davenport’s credibility is a valid one. I’m not sure the degree of his popularity in the theatre community.

Updated On: 4/24/18 at 08:43 PM

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 8:47pm

The entire theatre community views Davenport as an absolute amateur. That being said, OOTI is so good that I could see them awarding it anyway. It's just the very idea of what a great revival is.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 8:47pm

It's sort of hard to compare Arden and Cromer because they are almost polar opposites in this case: Cromer's work is subtle and understated, while Arden's is bold and explosive. Meanwhile Sher falls sort of in the middle. I don't want to discredit Cromer's excellent work on The Band's Visit, but it seems to me that Arden's work is more memorable, and therefore more likely to get votes. 

[QueenAlice]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 8:58pm

I actually don’t think that is how Tony voters usually see things. A good comparison is last years race, where many thought Rachel Chavkin would win for the scope of her direction of Natasha Pierre. It ended up going to Christopher Ashley with a much more subtle production

Updated On: 4/24/18 at 08:58 PM

[kade.ivy]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 9:02pm

QueenAlice said: "I actually don’t think that is how Tony voters usually see things. A good comparison is last years race, where many thought Rachel Chavkinwould win for the scope of her direction of Natasha Pierre. It ended up going to Christopher Ashley with a much more subtle production"

Direction wins are often surprising (Taichman for Indecent comes to mind), but I thought last year's win for CFA, while certainly deserved, was more as a result of a vote split between Chavkin for GC and Greif for DEH? 

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 9:10pm

QueenAlice said: "It ended up going to Christopher Ashley with a much more subtle production"

Subtle, but complex to direct with all of that constant movement and switching of roles. The more I think about that show, the more I'm happy that it won an award for directing. (Not that Great Comet wasn't also well-directed.)

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 9:15pm

I wouldn't call Ashley's direction of Come From Away subtle... He directed the performances in that show like they were doing regional children's theatre. Honestly, I feel like that's what most of his shows are like.

I really think he won just because Chavkin and Greif split the vote.

[After Eight]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 9:17pm

As far as the best musical is concerned, there's really  nothing to predict. It's a foregone conclusion as to what will win, as it was when the season began.

I'll just take this opportunity to state what should be nominated, if merit were the actual determinant of selection. Using that standard, it would be Sponge Bob, Summer, Mean Girls, and Frozen. The castoffs would be Escape to Margaritaville Prince of Broadway, and The Band's Visit bringing up the rear.

 

 

[bwayrose7]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 9:22pm

Well, we can end the thread right here, folks! After Eight has spoken, and as we all know, their definition of "merit" is unquestionable and the only right one.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 9:27pm

Yes, The Band's Visit is clearly inferior to those other six shows. Totes obvs. Thank you for imparting your wonderful wisdom unto us plebes!

[Eliza2]

Posted: 4/24/18 at 10:12pm

BroadwayConcierge said: "Don't get me wrong, I love this production ofOOTI, but to imagine it taking the Tony over Lincoln Center'sbreathtakingMy Fair Ladymakes me laugh. I cannot see it happening.

Also, at this point, my predictions for Best Actress are Ambrose, Kilgore, Lenk, Louderman, and Murin."

How many times, though, do things happen at the Tonys that we don't see happening?

[CindersGolightly]

Posted: 4/25/18 at 3:15am

BroadwayConcierge said: "Also, at this point, my predictions for Best Actress are Ambrose, Kilgore, Lenk, Louderman, and Murin."

Yup, this has been my prediction/hope for Lead Actress from the beginning. I can't imagine a better lineup.

[dmrockon092]

Posted: 4/25/18 at 7:18am

I imagine that Patti Murin is a lock, while Caissie Levy is not for a Best Actress nomination. Truthfully, she felt like more a supporting role in the show.

I'm pulling for Tina Landau to win for Spongebob. I'd love to see Ethan Slater nominated as well.

Once on this Island had a lot of early buzz, but these lavish and large revivals might eclipse it. I would've enjoyed seeing some of the supporting cast getting nods as well (Lea, Alex, Merle, etc.).

[AGussBway]

Posted: 4/25/18 at 11:23am

would be a pity for OOTI to be ignored given the recent critical success of MFL and Carousel. In my opinion, OOTI is by far the best show of the three.