Official Way Too Early 2018 Tony Predictions Thread — Page 20

I feel that it may be worth noting that Jessie Mueller didn't get nominated for the OCC for On a Clear Day... but got nominated for the Tony. I hope this bodes well for her.

We'll find out the official ruling soon enough, but for impatient me who is enjoying making her mock nominations list... do we know if My Fair Lady's orchestrations will be considered? Or are they the original orchestrations? Hard to tell from the IBDb page.

I'm assuming Carousel will be eligible because of the extended dance sequences...?

I think OoTI is going to win Revival for reasons expressed in this thread, AND because I wonder if Tony voters are sick of rewarding Sher and his well-done Lincoln Center revivals (starting with South Pacific beating what some would argue was a more inspired production of Sunday in the Park with George). Although both OoTI and My Fair Lady have similar show scores and both received raves and excellent reviews, some of MFL's reviewers couldn't help but compare it to Sher's other shows and maybe MFL isn't really competing against OoTI but Sher's previous productions. This will help usher in a OoTI win. Plus the idea of the little show that could and all of that beating the Goliath of Lincoln Center would be delicious for many Tony voters to want to see happen just to make it an exciting night.

Updated On: 4/24/18 at 08:17 PM

Going off on the idea that Tony winners aren't always about quality and who received the best critical notices (we really know that to be true), but having other factors involved, here is how I think Best Actor and Actress will go down from a "outside the actual performance" perspective:

I think Henry is a favorite over Haddon-Paton (who did NOT receive ho-hum reviews as characterized in this thread but actually received some excellent reviews) because Henry is a veteran Broadway actor now and he will have the hard working Broadway actor finally getting his due narrative over Hadden-Paton who is a newcomer to the Broadway stage and doesn't have the same contacts. I can see Slater and Shaloub nabbing it if the voters aren't feeling too strongly about anyone in particular.

Lenk will most likely win Best Actress because people will remember her in Indecent and awarding her brilliant performance in A Band's Visit will allow some voters to feel like they are also rewarding her for her well-received performance in Indecent as well. It's sort of like Ruth Ann Miles winning for The King and I over some tough competition (I know some say the Fun Home actresses canceled each other out but I don't know if that's true). She gave a new perspective to Lady Thiang, gained excellent notices for her rendition for "Something Wonderful", and some pundits said voters may remember her fondly in Here Lies Love. Plus, her announcing the Outer Critics Circle Award was a clear campaign move just so she would not be forgotten considering she's not eligible for any of the precursors. I bet we'll see her present at the Drama Desks as well. She's playing the game, and I respect that.

Updated On: 4/24/18 at 08:27 PM

Don't get me wrong, I love this production of OOTI, but to imagine it taking the Tony over Lincoln Center's breathtaking My Fair Lady makes me laugh. I cannot see it happening.

Also, at this point, my predictions for Best Actress are Ambrose, Kilgore, Lenk, Louderman, and Murin.

Sorry if someone else has already said this (it's a long thread and I haven't been following it religiously)

But could there be a scenario in which Arden wins direction, but My Fair Lady wins revival? I know it's rare for a Direction Tony to go to a revival that doesn't also win Best Revival (as far as I can tell, the last time it happened was in 2006 - Doyle won for Sweeney Todd, but The Pajama Game won Best Revival). But maybe it's time for it to happen again!

Updated On: 4/24/18 at 08:40 PM

I actually don’t think that is how Tony voters usually see things. A good comparison is last years race, where many thought Rachel Chavkin would win for the scope of her direction of Natasha Pierre. It ended up going to Christopher Ashley with a much more subtle production

Updated On: 4/24/18 at 08:58 PM

QueenAlice said: "It ended up going to Christopher Ashley with a much more subtle production"

Subtle, but complex to direct with all of that constant movement and switching of roles. The more I think about that show, the more I'm happy that it won an award for directing. (Not that Great Comet wasn't also well-directed.)

As far as the best musical is concerned, there's really nothing to predict. It's a foregone conclusion as to what will win, as it was when the season began.

I'll just take this opportunity to state what should be nominated, if merit were the actual determinant of selection. Using that standard, it would be Sponge Bob, Summer, Mean Girls, and Frozen. The castoffs would be Escape to Margaritaville Prince of Broadway, and The Band's Visit bringing up the rear.

Yes, The Band's Visit is clearly inferior to those other six shows. Totes obvs. Thank you for imparting your wonderful wisdom unto us plebes!

BroadwayConcierge said: "Also, at this point, my predictions for Best Actress are Ambrose, Kilgore, Lenk, Louderman, and Murin."

Yup, this has been my prediction/hope for Lead Actress from the beginning. I can't imagine a better lineup.

would be a pity for OOTI to be ignored given the recent critical success of MFL and Carousel. In my opinion, OOTI is by far the best show of the three.