He hasn't been even close to right on anything in several months, but here's what he thinks will get the Best Musical nom:
After Midnight
Gentleman's Guide
Beautiful
Two of these three:
If/Then; Aladdin; Bullets
Dark horse: Bridges
Out of the running: Rocky
link
"Out of the running: Rocky"
I expect any minute now, Roxy will jump out of bed, still in his nightshirt, bare feet and nightcap with the little pom-pom at the end to say how wrong Riedel is about Rocky, how wrong you are for posting this, how it's the best musical of the season and that you're ALL blocked.
The premise of his article is a bit oft-putting:
"The mixed reviews last week for Woody Allen’s “Bullets Over Broadway” — once touted by pundits as the show to beat this season (nobody’s perfect) — have upended the field of nominees for that most important of Tony Awards, Best Musical."
I know the show opened, but to say things are upended after the reviews didn't live up to the predictions of pundits seems self-serving, since it seems to leave the shows as sort of a background part of the real equation: the crossfire between pundits beforehand and reviewers afterward. Anyone should be able to write about mixed reactions to a show without making it about invented advance hype and the reviews of shows.
If he was a war reporter, he would talk about the strategy and rumors before engaging in a battle, and then cut to the numbers of body on the ground after the fact, and skip over the actual battle as superfluous.
Hmmm... I agree with After Midnight and Gentleman's Guide being locks, but I think Bullets is also pretty much locked in for a nomination over Beautiful.
Imagine if BRIDGES ends up winning for BEST MUSICAL. I know it's unlikely but I'd love to just see what it does for the show's grosses. It would kind of clearly show what the effect of winning best musical is on bringing in an audience (best musical winners are usually already doing well at the box office so it's difficult to see).
I'm not sure that would be conclusive. That would only show us how a show with miserable sales does should it win. For me, if I'm not interested, I'm not interested -- I don't care how many awards or accolades something gets.
Kind of funny how quickly he backtracks on the ridiculously effusive praise he showered on Bullets after its first preview.
Hell, he had been showing praise for the show since before that. Remember when he "reported" on the meet-the-press rehearsal numbers and how everyone was going crazy for them? Ugh. And I know it's been said before, but God what a sad slate of musicals for this season.
Also: I feel like his "industry insiders" are just us.
I liked Bullets. (I don't usually agree with Riedel, ever, but in this case I did.) I had a lot of fun at that show and thought it was very well executed. (It was sure better than the horrid "If/Then," and the utterly disappointing "Rocky".)
If I was nominating (this isn't who I THINK will get it, but who I'd nominate), these would be the nominees:
After Midnight
Aladdin
Bridges of Madison County
Bullets Over Broadway
Gentleman's Guide
Those would be it. I think After Midnight and Gentleman's Guide are the sure bets right now-the other 3 spots are up for grabs.
I have a feeling we may surprised by the amount of nominations Bridges receives.
I think Dreaming's noms are right on.
But BEAUTIFUL could slip in somewhere.
It's really up in the air this year.
And I know it's been said before, but God what a sad slate of musicals for this season.
That is said every season.
Riedel loved Hedwig off broadway. Both times he reviewed it. Let's see what he says once it opens this month.
"And I know it's been said before, but God what a sad slate of musicals for this season."
I could care less about discussing/predicting the Tonys, and avoid threads about it (I'd've skipped this were it not a Riedel column), since what show wins the Tony has no bearing on my life, as I'll only agree or disagree, but not change my opinion about what i enjoyed...
All that said, I'm still not sure how a year with: Fun Home, Here Lies Love, Bridges of Madison County, Beautiful, Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder, If/Then, After Midnight, Aladdin, Rocky, Bullets Over Broadway, Hedwig, etc., is a bad season.
I know all of those aren't Tony eligible, but I'm an audience member, not on the Tony committee or a Tony voter.
Certainly there is no clear champion, or a horse race with two real contenders like last year, but there's been a lot of great work this year, and I've had a lot of great nights in the theater at the above.
I realize it's said every season, but not by me. I loved last season and I've loved a bunch of the seasons lately, but sorry haterobics, but some of the shows you mentioned that are good (HERE LIES LOVE, FUN HOME, HEDWIG) are not eligible for the new musical award, and I don't think BEAUTIFUL, IF/THEN, ALADDIN, ROCKY or BULLETS should be brought up as examples of good musicals, some are very mediocre (I left BULLETS during intermission, a first time for me) and others are half-good. Just expressing my opinion, if you found those shows successful, good for you. In terms of new musicals, I say bring the next season on.
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/14/11
Let's also remember that the only way there will be 5 nominees is if there's less than 3 votes separating the 4th and 5th place shows, which is actually pretty unlikely. So more than likely, there will still only be 4 nominees in each of the production categories, even though there could technically be a 5th in all but Revival of a Musical.
My thoughts:
After Midnight
Beautiful
Bullets
Gentleman's Guide
"if you found those shows successful, good for you."
I'm not saying they were all amazing works for the ages, but I certainly enjoyed them in the moment and appreciated what went into them. I wouldn't have considered leaving them at intermission, and if someone from out of town wanted to see them again, I'd gladly join them.
If/Then I've attended multiple times (DC, previews, and tomorrow night), and Bridges I will have to see at last one more time before it closes. I couldn't stop listening to the OBCR last night.
Updated On: 4/16/14 at 11:14 AM
Stand-by Joined: 2/21/14
Given how expensive and risky they are, it is heartening that so many new musicals opened this year on Broadway even if none of them are really great--the art form clearly isn't dead. Having said that, I think Gentleman's Guide is a good musical; it has a fine, witty score, good direction and terrific performances. Bridges is not entirely successful but the parts of it that do succeed--the score, O'Hara and Pasquale--are outstanding.
Leading Actor Joined: 10/2/08
About Gentleman's Guide. I didn't think the score was that fine or that witty. The lyrics were better than the music. I did like the trio in the last act. The characters were mainly cartoons. I only liked Jefferson Mays as the nicest of the victims. I didn't dislike the show, but I didn't find it memorable either. I had a pretty good time at most of the musicals this year, but if Gentleman's Guide is indeed considered the best at Tony awards time, then I guess it must not have been that great a year.
"The characters were mainly cartoons."
Isn't that the point?
"I only liked Jefferson Mays as the nicest of the victims."
Isn't he all of the victims?!
Stand-by Joined: 2/21/14
Yes, the characters in Gentleman's guide are silly and over-the-top; it's a comedy in the style of an English music-hall show. If you were expecting it to be a serious show with realistic characters, then I can certainly understand why you were disappointed. And if you didn't like Gentleman's Guide, I suggest you skip any future revivals of "The Importance of Being Earnest".
My predictions:
.A Gentleman's Guide To Love & Murder
.Beautiful
.If/Then
.Aladdin OR After Midnight
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