The Great "Best Musical" Race of 2019- Page 3

[Dancingthrulife2]

Posted: 4/27/19 at 11:29pm

The only show of all the candidates that interests me is Hadestown. Would be really surprised if anything else wins.

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 12:03am

Actual word-of-mouth takes time to kick in. Tootsie's had 4 weeks of previews and 4 performances since its reviews came out; The Prom has been running 6 months, has a cast album, and has had national TV appearances. And despite all that, it's been on life-support.

Individual social circles are usually poor indicators of word-of-mouth as it relates to sales –– unless your social circle happens to be 63% tourists and 66% wealthy women over 45.

Updated On: 4/28/19 at 12:03 AM

[Theatrefanboy1]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 12:08am

Hadestown for the win
Tootsie for the nom
The prom
The Cher show

I know the Cher show won’t win best musical. But I will still say it was such a fun night.
Hadestown will win. But I do see the politics being turned off by it.

[dwwst12]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 8:12am

The fifth slot isn’t automatic, unless they’ve changed the rule since 2017-2018.

“Where there are nine or more eligible shows in a Best Show category, at the Tony Nominating Meeting, the Nominating Committee will be instructed to cast one vote each for four eligible shows as nominees on his/her secret ballot. Such ballot shall be collected and tabulated by a representative of the Accounting Firm. The four eligible shows with the highest number of votes will automatically be designated as the nominees in such category. A fifth nominee shall be added to the category in the event that the Accounting Firm determines that the difference in votes between the fourth highest ranked show and the fifth highest ranked show is three votes or less.”

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 8:53am

There will be at least five Best Musical and Best Play nominees according to the 2018-2019 rules:

If there are at least nine eligible candidates for nomination in any of the 26 established competitive categories, then there shall be five nominees in that category.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 9:04am

Actually, there’s also a rule about tie-breakers this year, so we won’t see more nominees than the prescribed number. So there will be five and not more in the Best Musical and Best Play categories. (Four in Revival of a Play and two in Revival of a Musical if they don’t decide to combine the categories.)

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 9:07am

HeyMrMusic said: "There will be at least five Best Musical and Best Play nominees according to the 2018-2019 rules:

If there are at least nine eligible candidates for nomination in any of the 26 established competitive categories, then there shall be five nominees in that category."

Hm, idk how we all missed that. Anyways, Be More Chill stan’s can be happy now as I forsee it getting nominated. Good news for Choir Boy for plays as well 

[John Adams]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 9:53am

RE: whether/not Cher should perform at the Tonys, I hope she won't.

On Fallon's show, which was devoted to Cher, and promoting The Cher Show, she was pretty vocal about how she's never heard anyone who'd ever done a really good impression of her. She said that they "make some noises and facial expressions, and I try to find myself in there, and it's just so much bullish_t".

She got applause and hoots/whistles from the audience, but I wish she had followed up with some kind of mention re: the 3 actresses portraying her in The Cher Show, who had just performed as a means of promoting her show.

Cher wants EGOT status - and why not? She's a well-deserved legend. But I don't see any need to overshadow the three ladies who are helping her reach that goal, on a night that's meant to (possibly) honor them.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/28/19 at 4:21pm

HeyMrMusic said: "Actually, there’s also a rule about tie-breakers this year, so we won’t see more nominees than the prescribed number... (Four in Revival of a Play ... if they don’t decide to combine the categories.)"

Technically Revival of a Play could have as many as 5 or 6 based on the tiebreaker rule. There are 8 eligible productions, so 4 shows will be automatically nominated. But if the 4th highest vote getter has the same number of votes as another production (or two), all of those tied productions will be nominated. But yes, we're for sure getting 5 in Best Musical and Best Play and 2 in Best Revival of Musical (assuming they don't combine for a Best Revival category).

[Broadway Fan2]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 3:23am

Hadestown, Ain’t Too Proud or King Kong will win the Tony

Strong contenders for the other nomination spots: Beetlejuice, The Prom, The Cher Show, Be More Chill and Pretty Woman

[poisonivy2]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 7:17am

If any show besides Hadestown wins it will be a joke.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 8:31am

bjh2114 said: "HeyMrMusic said: "Actually, there’s also a rule about tie-breakers this year, so we won’t see more nominees than the prescribed number...(Four in Revival of a Play ... if they don’t decide to combine the categories.)"

Technically Revival of a Play could have as many as 5 or 6 based on the tiebreaker rule. There are 8 eligible productions, so 4 shows will be automatically nominated. But if the 4th highest vote getter has the same number of votes as another production (or two), all of those tied productions will be nominated. But yes, we're for sure getting 5 in Best Musical and Best Play and 2 in Best Revival of Musical (assuming they don't combine for a Best Revival category)."

On another thread, we discovered there’s language in the rules for a nomination tiebreaker (meaning only the set number of nominees allowed) and also a tie allowing all tied nominees (within three votes) getting in, so who knows which one is true.

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 9:37am

One important factor re: campaigning:

Two of HADESTOWN's lead producers have never produced a Broadway show. Of course, less experienced producers have won Best Musical before, but ad agencies and press reps can only steer a producer so much: they have to drive the ship. TOOTSIE producer Scott Sanders probably has the most lead-producing experience in the Best Musical race. Sometimes winning the game is knowing how to play the game.

Breakdown of key people in this year's Best Musical race --

Hadestown Produced by  Mara Isaacs,  Dale Franzen,  Hunter Arnold,  Tom Kirdahy; General Manager:  RCI Theatricals; Press Representative:  DKC/O&M; Advertising/Marketing:  SPOTCo, Inc.; Social Media:  Marathon Digital.

Tootsie Produced by  Scott Sanders,  Carol Fineman; General Manager:  Bespoke Theatricals; Press Representative:  Polk & Co.; Advertising & Marketing:  SPOTCo, Inc.; Marketing Supervision: Michele Groner.

The Prom Produced by  Bill Damaschke,  Dori Berinstein; General Manager:  Foresight Theatrical; Press Representative:  Polk & Co.; Marketing Direction:  On the Rialto; Advertising:  AKA; Digital Marketing:  Situation Interactive.

Ain't Too Proud Produced by  Ira Pittelman; General Manager:  Corker Group, LLC; Press Representative:  DKC/O&M; Advertising:  Serino Coyne; Social Media: Marathon Digital; Marketing and Press Outreach:  Linda J. Stewart.

Be More Chill Produced by  Gerald Goehring,  Michael F. Mitri,  Jennifer Ashley Tepper; General Manager:  LDK Productions; Press Representative:  Boneau / Bryan-Brown; Advertising:  AKA; Social Media:  Marathon Digital.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 9:40am

The only way I see Cher getting in is because of the respected people in the industry behind it, but I just still think it'll fall short to Be More Chill. Get those teens tuning in for Tony night by nominating BMC for musical, score, and Salazar for supporting actor. 

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 9:55am

Mike Barrett said: "Get those teens tuning in for Tony night by nominating BMC for musical, score, and Salazar for supporting actor."

I REALLY don't think the Tony nominators have that mindset. And if the BMC grosses are any indication, the word-of-mouth isn't translating to sales. 

Look at this list of 48 nominators, it's kind of a random group: 9 actors, 8 director/choreographers, 8 writers, 5 designers, and 15 people associated with non-profit theatres or theatre-adjacent arts industries. These aren't the 850 people (featuring a lot of producers) who vote on the Tonys.

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 9:58am

SomethingPeculiar said: "Mike Barrett said: "Get those teens tuning in for Tony night by nominating BMC for musical, score, and Salazar for supporting actor."

I REALLY don't think the Tony nominators have that mindset. And if the BMC grosses are any indication, the word-of-mouth isn't translating to sales.

Look at this list of 48 nominators, it's kind of a random group: 9 actors, 8 director/choreographers, 8 writers, 5 designers, and 15 people associated with non-profit theatres or theatre-adjacent arts industries. These aren't the 850 people (featuring a lot of producers) who vote on the Tonys."

Very fair point! I guess I wasn't aware virtually no producers vote on nominations, I guess its surpassing to me for some reason but makes sense. Thoughts like the one I mentioned may have more impact on the winners than the nominees. 

[theatretenor2]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 10:04am

I'm sorry, but Tootsie cannot win Best Musical. Yazbeck's score was pathetic and undermined the production for me. Tootsie was my partner's most anticipated of the seven shows we were seeing and it even fell toward the bottom for him. The book was funny, but I personally thought The Prom was funnier (and more original).

My predictions for the three locks for musical: The Prom or HadesTown will win Best Musical


Tony Award predictions for HadesTown: Best Original Score, Best Lighting Design of A Musical, Best Costume Design of A Musical, Best Scenic Design of A Musical, Best Orchestrations 

Tony Award predictions for The Prom: Best Book of A Musical, Best Musical, Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical, Beth Leavel. I'd like to see Brooks win, but I think Santino takes that one.

Tony Award predictions for Tootsie: Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical, Santino Fontana

Sarah Stiles may also win best featured actress, but I would like to see Amber win.

Updated On: 4/29/19 at 10:04 AM

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 10:47am

@ Mike Barrett, it's an odd group of -- no offense -- "second-tier" theatre people, including some who haven't worked on Bway. And anyone with a conflict-of-interest or who missed a show this season has to recuse themself in all related categories (eg, Peter Hedges' son is Lucas, Mara Isaac is connected to Hadestown, etc.)

[JSquared2]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 12:31pm

Mike Barrett said: "The only way I see Cher getting in is because of the respected people in the industry behind it, but I just still think it'll fall short to Be More Chill. Get those teens tuning in for Tony night by nominating BMC for musical, score, and Salazar for supporting actor."

 

Any teens that are aware of BE MORE CHILL would be watching the Tonys anyway. 

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 12:34pm

HeyMrMusic said: "On another thread, we discovered there’s language in the rules for a nomination tiebreaker (meaning only the set number of nominees allowed) and also a tie allowing all tiednominees (within three votes)getting in, so who knows which one is true."

The tiebreak rule as written in this year's version reads "In the event that there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations in any of the 26 established competitive categories, both or all three of those candidates shall be nominated." I take that to mean that if there is a tie for the first, second, or third nomination slots, we will only get four nominees. But if there is a tie for the 4TH spot, we will get 5 (or 6).

[bjh2114]

Posted: 4/29/19 at 12:37pm

Oh and for what it's worth, the "within three votes" case is old as of this year. That was in last year's rules, but not this year's.

[jacobsnchz14]

Posted: 4/30/19 at 11:24am

So... guess we can add Beetlejuice in the running now.

[RippedMan]

Posted: 4/30/19 at 10:26pm

I enjoyed "Tootsie" but didn't think Santino really did anything impressive, and sad that he'll probably win as it is a weak year for Best Actor. 

But there's no way "Tootsie" can win in this climate without utter backlash. I mean it's a white dude who doesn't like the way things are going so he decides to be a women to take a job away from a woman... 

[magictodo123]

Posted: 5/1/19 at 8:19am

RippedMan said: "I enjoyed "Tootsie" but didn't think Santino really did anything impressive, and sad that he'll probably win as it is a weak year for Best Actor.

But there's no way "Tootsie" can win in this climate without utter backlash. I mean it's a white dude who doesn't like the way things are going so he decides to be a women to take a job away from a woman..."

The thing that gets me about this is that it was a movie before it was a musical. if people were aware of the concept of the movie, and found it offensive, why would they waste energy insulting the show? Aside from not bringing the show to Broadway (an unrealistic expectation?) how could they have altered what is the main plot point of the show? I hate seeing all this hate for the show. I wanted to support people who are very upset about the concept and see something else like Beetlejuice, but wit the strobe in that show, should I really put my health at risk? It breaks my heart that there are so many wonderful shows on Broadway right now: I feel like we've been so spoiled. There's something for so many people. If a show offends you so much...how about just don't see it, educate people on why you don't like it, but don't call it trash? I've seen such rude comments, and I have to wonder how many people making those comments have actually seen the show. I know if you heard about their merchandise fiasco it would turn you off of the show. But people still shouldn't be condemned for wanting to see what interests them. Celebrate the shows you love. It's really that simple. 

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 5/1/19 at 9:20am

I predicted that Ain't Too Proud would have a good chance of getting a nomination for Best Musical right after I saw it at The Kennedy Center. (Too many other shows had yet to open to have made a definite prediction back then, but as of last week I was pretty sure it would get a nod). It's an exhilarating show that appeals to a broad demographic. But I was quite surprised that it took home 12 nominations, especially one for Best Book, which by every account is the weakest aspect of what's still a really good musical, the best jukeboxer since Jersey Boys, IMO. It's not gonna win Best Musical, which I think will go to either Hadestown or Tootsie (probably the former) but it has a good chance to pick up two or three Tonys.  I'm sure that those associated with the show could not have been more pleased yesterday.