Posted: 5/21/15 at 4:45pm
"Calm down. It's one vote. Do you really expect Beth and Leanne to get literally 0 votes?"
What Karasarides said: There could be a surprise like Idina or LaChanze
Posted: 5/21/15 at 4:47pm
Neither of those were that surprising. They certainly weren't 4th or 5th likely to win the award, as is the case with Malone and Cope.
Posted: 5/21/15 at 4:49pm
Posted: 5/21/15 at 5:08pm
"Was Idina really a surprise? "
Yes, absolutely. In hindsight, perhaps even immediate hindsight, it seems completely plausible she would be rewarded with such a career-defining role in WICKED. But she wasn't even spoken of as a dark horse. Remember, Kristin received the better review in the Times, and WICKED received mixed reviews over-all. Every paper was splitting their predictions between Tonya Pinkins and Donna Murphy.
As for this race, I think it's completely become a two-way race, with Chita sadly and predictably fading to third due to the show's struggles. Beth Malone is indeed the dark horse. And I think the tide is swinging Kelli's way. Even a couple weeks ago, people seemed reluctant to give to Kelli, becuse of a perceived obligation, but now you're hearing more and more how lovely her work is and, much like with Patti in 2008, that it is truly her time for a win.
Posted: 5/21/15 at 6:51pm
"I'm saddened by how little Chita Rivera seems to be on the radar for the Tony at this point, despite giving what is arguably the best performance of her career. (Seems to me that "The Visit" not being a hit show is keeping her in the shadows behind Kristin and Kelli.)
I think that Chita is still very much alive. She will get a lot of votes from people like you who love her. KC and KO will split a lot of the remaining votes.
KC is one of those people who attracts a lot of fans because she is so genuine and she wears her heart on her sleeve. A lot of Scrooges are hostile to this persona. Someone provided a link to a London theater critic advising Londoners on the ten best shows on Broadway. (I think The Visit was second.) He prefaced his praise for Kristin with the phrase "No matter how you may feel about her personally."
There are a lot of Kristin detractors lurking out there.
Posted: 5/21/15 at 8:18pm
I don't understand the logic behind Kristin and Kelli splitting votes. In what respect? I understand how that could work in both of the featured categories this year with several people from the same show nominated. They could split the votes between votes who want to acknowledge someone from that show, but aren't united who should take it, split the votes and it end up going to someone else.
But I don't understand what Kelli and Kristin have in common that could cause vote splitting? I'm not trying to snarky, it honestly doesn't make sense in my head. Their roles and personas couldn't be more different. Sure, they are both from OK and had the same voice teacher, but I highly doubt that is part of any voters consideration.
I can to some degree see how Kelli and Chita could split the "sentimental vote", but even that seems far fetched...
Posted: 5/22/15 at 1:40am
I interpreted "splitting" simply to mean that Kelli and Kristin will both get a lot of the remaining votes between the two of them.
Posted: 5/22/15 at 10:16am
Sorry if someone else already posted this from yesterday, but it's a nice article about Kelli and Kristin's mentor, Florence Birdwell, seeing them perform recently. How proud she must be.
http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/theater-arts/kristin-chenoweth-kelli-o-hara-earn-mentor-article-1.2230625
Posted: 5/23/15 at 12:58am
Stunning
Posted: 5/23/15 at 1:00am
Posted: 5/23/15 at 1:13am
Posted: 5/23/15 at 1:49am
I still wonder if we don't see the Tony going to Chenoweth, with revival going to TKAI. Sharing the wealth a bit."
That's exactly what I think is going to happen.
Posted: 5/23/15 at 12:34pm
I've now seen 3 out of 5 of the actresses - Kristin, Chita, and Beth. I'm seeing Kelli the weekend after the Tonys and AAIP....at some point.
In term of the show itself, I don't think that 20th Century was my favorite, but the performances were all very good. This is Kristin's once in a lifetime role, and goodness she is dedicating her life to it. It's very demanding, and apparently she's been on vocal rest quite a bit.
I love Kelli. I was devastated when she didn't win for Light in the Piazza. I still think that's the one she should have won for out of all of her nominations. Is Ana a Tony deserving part? It's certainly not as vocally/physically demanding as Kristin's role. But I've heard that Kelli's acting is amazing.
It's a tough category, but I'd be happy if Kristin or Kelli win.
Speaking of the theory that Kristin will win but King and I will get best revival, I wonder if something similar will happen with the Best Actor in a Musical category. Maybe they'll give Robert the Tony over Michael and Fun Home will take home Best Musical? Or vice versa?
Posted: 5/23/15 at 1:08pm
^^^Very well could happen. Splitting between Fun Home (musical or actor) and AAIP (actor or musical) in the same way.
Do I see both Kelli and The King and I getting it? Not sure about that. I'd be surprised.
But what about Kristin and OTTC both getting it? Not so sure there either.
If one shows takes both though I would have to cast my vote for the latter, only because Kristin is so phenomenal and is nailing all aspects of her performance (song, dance, acting) in what is a very challenging role.
As for the show itself. I just loved it. It was so colorful….full of fast-paced energy, and I thought every performance was just awesome. Not just Kristin.
And as much as I love The King and I too, it would be nice to see a different musical get it this time. The King and I has been seen on Broadway (and elsewhere) a lot over the last 50+ years. I'd like to see OTTC get the Tony, just for something a little different.
Posted: 5/23/15 at 1:10pm
^I personally would like to see On the Town win Best Revival.
Posted: 5/23/15 at 5:15pm
And if that happened, Jeffrey, I wouldn't be at all unhappy. I loved On the Town, too.
OTTC and OTT were my favorites of the 7 shows I saw over spring.
Posted: 5/23/15 at 11:07pm
I interpreted "splitting" simply to mean that Kelli and Kristin will both get a lot of the remaining votes between the two of them."
It just means that if Chita received 35 percent of the vote and faced only Kelli or only Kristin she would lose, but if the remaining 65 percent thought that either Kelli or Kristin deserved to win this time around and 33 percent went to Kristin and 32 percent went to Kelli then Chita would win.
Posted: 5/23/15 at 11:43pm
^^
But then you could turn that around in favor of every one of those 3. That's just a matter of where you begin. You could just as well say 35% may want Kelli to win and than Kristin and Chita would both loose with 32 and 33% respectively. Or Kristin might get 35% and Kelli and Chita would both lose.
It's still not logical.
Posted: 5/24/15 at 8:41am
The concept of "splitting votes" when a competition is very tight makes perfect sense. The presumption is that a third place candidate benefits when the top two candidates are so evenly matched that it's a toss-up for voters and no one ends up with a big majority.
A more classic example of splitting votes is when two (or more) candidates have similar interests and pull from the same pool of voters. Like Fun Home in the Best Featured Actress categories. Voters may decide they want to honor someone from that show and for some that will mean Sydney Lucas, for others it will mean Judy Kuhn.
I used to work in college sports and we had to nominate our own athletes to be eligible for the league coaches to vote on all-league teams. There was always strategy in how you nominated because you knew if people wanted to honor someone from your team and there were too many choices they would split votes and perhaps no one would win.
Posted: 5/24/15 at 10:43am
Well yes, that's what I said when I initially asked about splitting. It makes total sense in the cases of Fun Home and Something Rotten in featured categories. I could see that happen there, because both actors will get votes from the same pool of voters.
However, I don't see any 2 of these 3 ladies here necessarily having the same pool of voters because they are all in very different shows, playing very different characters, all with very different demands. On top of that, they all have very different personalities. If anything Chita and Kelli are in more serious, dramatic shows with more subtle performances, versus Kristin in a flashy comedy with a very physical performance. According to that theory I would say it's more likely Kelli and Chita will pull from the same pool of voters and split votes, which would give Kristin the edge. But even though I'm rooting for Kristin I think that theory is a stretch.
But people have said Kelli and Kristin could split votes, but I don't see based on what they would pull from the same pool of voters...
And to what you said first, that explanation also gives no indication to whose favor that might be... I would even say, since many people have said it's Kristin's to lose at this point, but she has 2 strong contenders, all those voters who do NOT want Kristin to win could end up splitting votes between Kelli and Chita, instead of giving one of them enough votes to beat Kristin.
Updated On: 5/24/15 at 10:43 AM
Posted: 5/24/15 at 10:55am
I agree ... I don't really see vote-splitting happening in the Best Actress in a Musical category. I think all three frontrunners are strong and will pull their own voters for individual reasons. As we've said before, Kristin, Kelli and Chita all have a sentimental reason to earn votes beyond their performances which could certainly impact things.
I hadn't read that many of the vote-splitting posts that well so I was just offering thoughts on the concept in general.
I think the thing that could come into play more in terms of Kelli vs. Kristin is voters who want to recognize their respective shows as well, so giving a Best Revival vote to a show and the actress vote to the one from the show they don't vote for.
Posted: 5/24/15 at 1:27pm
But people have said Kelli and Kristin could split votes, but I don't see based on what they would pull from the same pool of voters...
I was separating the pool of voters based primarily on age. Younger voters did not see Chita in her classic roles, and The Visit is too weak an audience favorite to impress them now when facing off against two big hits that dramatically showcase their stars.
Posted: 5/24/15 at 5:36pm
Posted: 5/27/15 at 3:57pm
Adam Feldman says that it will be a "crime against musical theater" is Chenoweth doesn't win. He does recognize that there has been a recent "surge of support" for Rivera. He doesn't think this is the performance that O'Hara should win for.
Posted: 5/27/15 at 4:06pm
^ I have a lot of problems with the things he said in that article.
