Tony 2025 Predictions -- Best Actor in A Musical

There's a lot of talk about Audra vs Nicole, but, what about actor in a lead role?

I think Darren Criss is not getting enough love for his performance. He needles the thread between human being and robot masterfully and I can't see him not getting nominated? Hopefully the win as well.

Tom Francis seems to be another frontrunner. Unfortunately we saw an understudy at our show so I can't comment on his performance.

Jonathan Groff will just miss eligibility, right (since Just in Time opens in June)?

I know his role is slight and probably a "feature" role, but, I thought Christopher Sieber was hilarious in DBH. Unfortunately Hilty and Simard were not in the show we saw...understudies again. Maybe that's why Sieber stood out so much?

Any thoughts?

The Broadway League website lists Just in Time's opening night for April 23, so Goff would definitely be eligible. He's a Broadway darling and could very likely score a nomination. I wouldn't rule out Jeremy Jordan for FC or Ramin Karimloo for Pirates! I haven't seen DBH yet, so I can't speak to Sieber.

I’d like to catch Durand and have heard good things about his Elmer, but I really hope Francis wins lead actor.

Durand is, admittedly, tasked with an incredibly difficult physical task in the back half of that show even if he's not 'doing much."

Chris Sieber has been placed in supporting (so has Michael Urie, I believe). Smart move, as he's an instant contender, though I'm cautiously eying Jak Malone and Thom Sesma for frontrunners.

It is of course to early to tell how the performances by Groff, Jordan, Pearce and Kaminloo will effect the race, but I think it's safe to call Francis, Criss and Groff as the highest likelihood of nomination - if Just in Time is recieved well, it will likely cement Groff as a frontrunner. I could see a world in which John Gallagher or James Monroe Iglehart sneaks in with a nomination, but I doubt it. Unfortunatley, it's just too early to predict this rate with any kind of accuracy.

chrishuyen said: "My guess for nominations would be (roughly in the order of likelihood as I see it)

• Jonathan Groff - Just in Time
• Darren Criss - Maybe Happy Ending
• Andrew Durand - Dead Outlaw
• Jeremy Jordan - Floyd Collins
• Tom Francis - Sunset Boulevard

On the bubble might be

• James Monroe Iglehart - A Wonderful World
• John Gallager Jr. - Swept Away
• Grey Henson - Elf
• Michael Urie - Once Upon a Mattress
• Ramin Karimloo/David Hyde Pierce - Penzance (the 1980 production had both roles as lead)

To be honest, I wasn't as taken with Tom Francis as some other people, and while I thought he did a good job I found him a bit...bland? Though perhaps in this production that's what they wanted for Joe. But I recognize that it's a part that requires a lot from you. I really liked Andrew Durand in Dead Outlaw, but it's also a part that doesn't get to be front and center for most of the show. He utterly charmed me in the beginning though, and I loved watching him through the rest of the show. Darren Criss I think should definitely get a nomination, but I don't know if I fully see him winning, and I suppose we'll have to see about Jeremy Jordan (I don't know Floyd Collins well but a friend mentioned she was skeptical about his voice type being suitable for the score)."

Criss & Francis are the surest bets here.

Part of why Swept Away extended was also to get Tony nominators/voters in and JGJ had unilaterally positive reviews.

Durand I could also see getting in - people forget the artistry and skill it takes to not so much as blink or twitch for an entire act. It’s the same level of subtle physicality that Criss exhibits in MHE, where he has to be careful not to over exaggerate his robotic movements. It’s a level of artistry that people tend to realize is as skillful as a performer that is visibly kinetic.

Unless Groff does something truly spectacular, this shouldn’t really be in the mix. He just won, and I’m pretty sure there may be some backlash if he supplants another candidate for essentially being Jonathan Groff.

Iglehart isn’t getting in (hard as he tries, but it doesn’t help when his alternate is getting better WOM), nor is Henson (though he was great) or Urie (who was a decent part of a crappy production).

The only real wildcards for me is Jordan, Karimloo, and Pierce as I’m not familiar with these shows and therefore can’t speak to them.

I change my mind, Jordan is definitely gonna be in the race, unless he is truly awful (which I am kind of expecting acting wise). But the role is too great of a role to not get nominated for if he's half decent.

Kad said: "Major General Stanley should be a supporting role and Pierce would be very competitive there. I cannot imagine he would be put as a lead for that role in this day and age."



In the Delacorte production, George Rose and Kevin Kline were both nominated in the Lead Actor category, with Kline the winner. Since the Tonys aren't much interested in observing precedents, it's anyone's guess how this production will pan out.

My fingers are crossed for Durand. He was mesmerizing in Dead Outlaw. I also think he should have been nominated for Shucked over Cahoon.

I highly doubt Groff would win a Tony two years in a row, but I think the chances of him getting a nomination at least are still quite high, especially if the show is well received/he gives a good performance.

I feel like the pretty clear Top 5 right now are (in order): Francis, Criss, Durand, Groff, Jordan

Not to say those are the definite five and someone can't sneak in especially if Floyd Collins or Just in Time isn't well received. But I think those are easily the ones to beat at the moment.

Updated On: 1/30/25 at 05:55 PM

Sorry, but I respectfully have to disagree. Jordan has a generation defining voice. He is a stunning singer.

He's also got stage presence and charisma.

But no, I've never seen him deliver an emotionally complex performance, or one where the stakes felt life or death. Mostly he's very good at displaying each emotion and moment, and giving the same performance every night. It's safe for producers, and it's also devoid of real life. It's an issue with much modern musical theatre acting, though. Thankfully, we still have some real bold talent in the industry.

David Cumming will 100% be nominated over one of these expected defaults.