Tony Awards Race - Audra vs. Nicole Edition- Page 5

[Bwaygurl2]

Posted: 4/14/25 at 11:47am

poisonivy2 said: "I feel like for better or for worse, people think of Audra's Gypsy as existing in a vacuum. Like they appreciate her performance, but the production is a bit of a turd.

Nicole is giving an incredible performance, but she's helped out by a better production."

Reminds me of the year when Barbra and Carol Channing competed; both iconic performances but Dolly was a much better show overall and I'm sure that helped her win.

[broadway86]

Posted: 4/14/25 at 3:30pm

poisonivy2 said: "I feel like for better or for worse, people think of Audra's Gypsy as existing in a vacuum. Like they appreciate her performance, but the production is a bit of a turd.

Nicole is giving an incredible performance, but she's helped out by a better production."

This is exactly where I'm at. Audra is working her ass off, but the direction and overall production does not help her.

[joevitus]

Posted: 4/14/25 at 3:37pm

broadway86 said: "poisonivy2 said: "I feel like for better or for worse, people think of Audra's Gypsy as existing in a vacuum. Like they appreciate her performance, but the production is a bit of a turd.

Nicole is giving an incredible performance, but she's helped out by a better production."

This is exactly where I'm at. Audra is working her ass off, but the direction and overall production does not help her."

The superiority of the Sunset Blvd production might have made a difference if the show was going to continue to run, though I have always thought the award was going to McDonald. That Sunset will be closing shortly after the Tonys just clinches it for me that Audra wins.

[poisonivy2]

Posted: 4/14/25 at 3:44pm

broadway86 said: "poisonivy2 said: "I feel like for better or for worse, people think of Audra's Gypsy as existing in a vacuum. Like they appreciate her performance, but the production is a bit of a turd.

Nicole is giving an incredible performance, but she's helped out by a better production."

This is exactly where I'm at. Audra is working her ass off, but the direction and overall production does not help her."

I think Gypsy is a strong enough musical and Mama Rose such a great part, but the production honestly looks like some regional production, and everyone else in the production (except for the June) so completely fades into the background. 

 

[verywellthensigh]

Posted: 4/14/25 at 4:48pm

I ask you...

[Melissa25]

Posted: 4/14/25 at 4:51pm

Because we’ve been to the rodeo before.

[RaisedOnMusicals]

Posted: 4/14/25 at 5:01pm

Audra will win because she's Audra, who I adore. But it's no longer a two person race, it's a three person race between those two and Robyn Hurder, who is spectacular in Smash. If it was a two person race it'd be between Audra and Robyn. Go ahead, Smash haters, take your shots but Robyn's singing, acting AND dancing was absolutely incredible.

[WldKingdomHM]

Posted: 4/14/25 at 5:26pm

RaisedOnMusicals said: "Audra will win because she's Audra, who I adore. But it's no longer a two person race, it's a three person race between those two and Robyn Hurder, who is spectacular in Smash. If it was a two person race it'd be between Audra and Robyn. Go ahead, Smash haters, take your shots but Robyn's singing, acting AND dancing was absolutely incredible."

Sure Jan 

[Robbie2]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 1:09am

RaisedOnMusicals said: "Audra will win because she's Audra, who I adore. But it's no longer a two person race, it's a three person race between those two and Robyn Hurder, who is spectacular in Smash. If it was a two person race it'd be between Audra and Robyn. Go ahead, Smash haters, take your shots but Robyn's singing, acting AND dancing was absolutely incredible."


I would say Jasmine Amy Rogers has the 3rd slot after Audra and Nicole followed by Megan Hilty +Jennifer Simard and possibly Helen Shen. Not hating at all but just not sure about her securing a nom in this crowded field above these ladies.

Updated On: 4/15/25 at 01:09 AM

[PipingHotPiccolo]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 1:13am

RaisedOnMusicals said: "Audra will win because she's Audra, who I adore. But it's no longer a two person race, it's a three person race between those two and Robyn Hurder, who is spectacular in Smash. If it was a two person race it'd be between Audra and Robyn. Go ahead, Smash haters, take your shots but Robyn's singing, acting AND dancing was absolutely incredible."

Id be shocked if Hurder is nominated, not because Smash was so cheesy but because as talented as Hurder is, they turned her character into a miserable sap, and her role felt like a supporting character most of the time. The idea that this horribly written character would be considered alongside Mama Rose, Norma, or the magic they made with Betty Boop... again, id be shocked (and i do expect Smash to get a few nominations). 

[FolliesCabaret]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 3:28am

RaisedOnMusicals said: "Audra will win because she's Audra, who I adore. But it's no longer a two person race, it's a three person race between those two and Robyn Hurder, who is spectacular in Smash. If it was a two person race it'd be between Audra and Robyn. Go ahead, Smash haters, take your shots but Robyn's singing, acting AND dancing was absolutely incredible."

Damn. It's like you were in a competition with yourself to see how many incorrect things you could say in a row.

[TaffyDavenport]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 10:39am

It wouldn't shock me in the slightest if Jasmine Amy Rogers wins over both of them.

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 10:42am

RaisedOnMusicals said: "Audra will win because she's Audra, who I adore. But it's no longer a two person race, it's a three person race between those two and Robyn Hurder, who is spectacular in Smash. If it was a two person race it'd be between Audra and Robyn. Go ahead, Smash haters, take your shots but Robyn's singing, acting AND dancing was absolutely incredible."

 

LOL

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 10:49am

My predicted nominees, in order of likelihood of nomination:

1. Audra McDonald (Gypsy)
2. Nicole Scherzinger (Sunset Blvd.)
3. Jasmine Amy Rogers (Boop!)
4. Megan Hilty (Death Becomes Her)
5. Jennifer Simard (Death Becomes Her)

Helen J. Shen is the leading possible swap, in my eyes. Robyn, as much as I love her, isn't even in the back five options of potential nominees. 

Updated On: 4/15/25 at 10:49 AM

[Ensemble1665759202]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 11:55am

TaffyDavenport said: "It wouldn't shock me in the slightest if Jasmine Amy Rogers wins over both of them."

I agree. 

[Owen22]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 12:08pm

ElephantLoveMedley said: "My predicted nominees, in order of likelihood of nomination:

1. Audra McDonald (Gypsy)
2. Nicole Scherzinger (Sunset Blvd.)
3. Jasmine Amy Rogers (Boop!)
4. Megan Hilty (Death Becomes Her)
5. Jennifer Simard (Death Becomes Her)

Helen J. Shen is the leading possible swap, in my eyes. Robyn, as much as I love her, isn't even in the back five options of potential nominees."

I think you're either forgetting or ignoring the superior work Natasha is doing over at Operation Mincemeat!!!!

 

[getatme]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 12:17pm

I have a feeling we may see this category expanded to 6 (possibly 7?) nominees this year based on the strength of leading women's performances across the board. My current predictions would be:

• Audra McDonald (Gypsy)
• Nicole Scherzinger (Sunset Boulevard)
• Jasmine Amy Rogers (Boop)
• Jennifer Simard (Death Becomes Her)
• Megan Hilty (Death Becomes Her)
• Helen J Shen (Maybe Happy Ending)

I think Shen will ride a wave of love for MHE and secure a nomination, but could also see Idina slipping in as potentially the sole nomination for Redwood.

There are of course other factors, and things could change in the coming weeks, but this is how I'm feeling now.

Needless to say, it's a very exciting season for leading ladies and award season should be fun to watch.

Also no one is forgetting or ignoring Natasha Hodgson's work, she just doesn't really hold a candle to watch people are doing in other shows. And I think the colder reception to Mincemeat alongside the ensemble nature of that show will hurt her chances.

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 12:17pm

Owen22 said: "I think you're either forgetting or ignoring the superior work Natasha is doing over at Operation Mincemeat!!!!"

 

 

I'm not. I don't think she gets in with the level of competition this season.

[FolliesCabaret]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 1:48pm

TaffyDavenport said: "It wouldn't shock me in the slightest if Jasmine Amy Rogers wins over both of them."

I could see this, especially with the possibility of Audra and Nicole splitting the vote. And it's thrilling that that could happen to someone so talented and deserving. I adore Jasmine's performance. Actually, adore all three of their performances. How lucky we are!

[everythingtaboo]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 5:45pm

TaffyDavenport said: "It wouldn't shock me in the slightest if Jasmine Amy Rogers wins over both of them."

To quote Bette Midler in Big Business:

"What fantasy is this? Are we hearing voices now, like Joan of Arc?"

[kdogg36]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 8:21pm

FolliesCabaret said: "I could see this, especially with the possibility of Audra and Nicole splitting the vote."

I know I'm a little annoying about this, but I have to ask: what vote would McDonald and Scherzinger be splitting? This claim implies that there's some natural class of Tony voters who would vote for those two but not Rogers. How would you characterize that group of voters? 

Again, I know I'm a pain, but I usually find this kind of claim a little vague and hard to interpret. It's not like when there were three nominees for Featured Actress from Fun Home, a situation where I really can imagine that it reduced the chances of any of them winning (for the record, I think Kuhn should have won that year, but I'm a huge fan of Miles so I'm not mad about what happened). In that case, the pool of voters that quite possibly was split could readily be labeled "Fun Home fans." What label would you give to the pool of voters that might hypothetically be split between Scherzinger and McDonald?

[SteveSanders]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 9:32pm

I don't think of them as splitting one shared block; rather:

• Audra pulls the votes of people who want to reward an excellent performance from an iconic performer in one of the classic Broadway musicals/roles; and
• Nicole gets the votes of people who want to reward a popular, highly stylized performance in a completely reinterpreted staging of an iconic show.

I guess that could create a lane for someone else to eke out enough votes to beat them both.

[Markie27]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 9:33pm

kdogg36 said: "FolliesCabaret said: "I could see this, especially with the possibility of Audra and Nicole splitting the vote."

I know I'm a little annoying about this, but I have to ask: what vote would McDonald and Scherzinger be splitting? This claim implies that there's some natural class of Tony voters who would vote for those two but not Rogers. How would you characterize that group of voters?

Again, I know I'm a pain, but I usually find this kind ofclaim a little vague and hard to interpret. It's not like when there were three nominees for Featured Actress fromFun Home,a situation where I really can imagine that it reduced the chances of any of them winning (for the record, I think Kuhn should have won that year, but I'm a huge fan of Miles so I'm not mad about what happened). In that case, the pool of voters that quite possiblywassplit could readily be labeled"Fun Homefans." What label would you give to the pool of voters that might hypothetically be split betweenScherzinger and McDonald?"

Thank you!  I have been frustrated as well about people saying there would be vote splitting.  The only reasonable vote splitting would be between Jennifer Simard and Megan Hilty since both are from Death Becomes Her.  People would either be voting for Nicole or Audra.  There are no overlap of Tony voters between the two to have a split.  
 

and I definitely agree.  As much as I love Ruthie, Judy Khun gave a much deserved winning performance.  Her Days and Days was so heart breaking that alone deserved the Tony.  But again she suffered from a vote splitting between voters who loved Fun Home.  

[Strange Lupone]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 9:47pm

rannells_renthead.11 said: "I can't properly judge since I haven't seen Gypsy, but I thought Nicole was phenomenal in Sunset and I believe she deserves it."

 

Give me claws and a hunch/

Just away from this bunch! 

 

Updated On: 4/15/25 at 09:47 PM

[Markie27]

Posted: 4/15/25 at 9:57pm

SteveSanders said: "I don't think of them as splitting one shared block; rather:

• Audra pulls the votes of people who want to reward an excellent performance from an iconic performer in one of the classic Broadway musicals/roles; and
• Nicole gets the votes of people who want to reward a popular, highly stylized performance in a completely reinterpreted staging of an iconic show.

I guess that could create a lane for someone else to eke out enough votes to beat them both."

But you just gave two very good reasons for people to either vote for Nicole and Audra.  If someone else to eke out enough votes to overcome the two frontrunners one has to have a very very good narrative to make people chose them.  And so far I don’t see a very strong third choice to “eke” out that win.  Jasmine, Robyn and even Jennifer Simard and Megan Hilty all gave very strong performances.  One has to overcome both the hype of the two fruntrunners AND the other nominees who equally gave Tony worthy performances.  
 

you gave very strong reasons to vote for Nicole and Audra.  Unfortunately I don’t see a strong third lane for one to overcome them.   

Updated On: 4/15/25 at 09:57 PM