degrassifan said: "Jeffrey Karasarides said: "The Rural Juror said: "Ariana went from a highly suspect casting choice, to being in high contention to win an Oscar!"
With Grande losing the Globe (which she would've easily won like 10 years ago) and Emilia Pérez looking like a serious threat to win Best Picture, I have a hard time seeing Saldana lose at this point."
Jeffrey, no offense, but you stay being proven wrong. You did not think West Side Story would be Oscar-nominated, and then it was. Then you swore up and down the Academy would not be kind to Wicked, and now it has been nominated for 10 Oscars, including Best Picture. You always want to be the contrarian with movie musicals and the Oscars."
Well, when some were speculating if Mary Poppins Returns would land noms in above the line categories early on in 2018, I never once bought it would get in for Best Picture nor Best Actress one bit. I figured it would only show up in craft categories, and nothing else. Which was exactly what happened. Meanwhile, I last year actually expected The Color Purple to be a bigger contender than it ended up being. So I don't always doubt movie musicals at the Oscars. There've been times where I underestimated them (like WSS and Wicked) and other times where I overestimated them (like TCP and Nine). Although there were times where I knew from the beginning it'd be a contender (like Les Misérables) and other times where I knew from the get-go that they weren't going to be huge (like MPR and Into the Woods - both from Rob Marshall).
"Now you're saying Emilia Perez is the serious threat? I don't even like her like that, but I hope Ariana wins just to prove the haters wrong. She's clearly top 2. Also, the Academy is not the Hollywood Foreign Press."
Apparently, you don't know that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association dissolved on June 12th, 2023. Thus, the Globes are now presented by the Golden Globe Foundation. Sure, none of their voters overlap with the other awards groups. With that being said, Emilia Pérez pretty much got nominated for every category it needed to win Best Picture (directing, acting, writing, and editing). Wicked may have gotten in for acting and editing, but not directing nor writing. While we have seen films from the last 10 years still win Best Picture despite missing key categories, they were in situations where they only missed one. Birdman only missed editing, Green Book only missed directing, and Parasite only missed acting. Meanwhile, CODA missed directing and every single below-the-line category. Although in that film's case, it got the three nominations many expected it to get, and nothing else. Yet as the season went on and more voters started catching up with it, momentum really took off.
Plus, if Wicked were to actually win Best Picture, I think it'll more likely happen with For Good next year as the story will be completed on the big screen by then. After all, the Academy waited until Return of the King to award Lord of the Rings Best Picture.
Updated On: 2/23/25 at 09:55 PM