-eye roll- Do you know how many shows people on here said would “never transfer” because they “shouldn’t”? Fun Home, Oklahoma, Hadestown, Constitution, Sing Street, Six - the list is endless. People on here think they’re the Gods of artistic integrity, but Broadway is a big place. The shows possible to produce commercially is growing. I would not be surprised at ALL if we see Strange Loop or Octet in a small broadway house in the next few years.
I hope you're not misinterpreting my statement as a bash against those shows. Really the contrary, and I particularly think OCTET is one of the finest achievements in musical theatre in this century thus far. I would love to live in a world where OCTET and A STRANGE LOOP would be exciting Broadway transfers that the public goes crazy for and keeps the shows running long enough to recoup, but I just have a very difficult time seeing a mass appeal for the shows when it comes to tourists and average ticket buyers. And really ever since Disney came in during the 90s and changed the entire economy of Broadway, it's just too expensive from a financial perspective to take risks on shows like that. I mean that's exactly why Sondheim left Broadway after Merrily, he realized that the work he wanted to do wasn't what was viable in Broadway houses (and then his Off-Broadway productions were almost all well-received enough to get transfers).
So please don't think I'm bashing the shows. I just think it's incredibly unlikely due to the financial risks. Every once in a while there are the FUN HOME's and BANDS VISIT's that end up being successful (with the help of Tony wins), but just so many are financial failures, regardless of artistic integrity. GREAT COMET is a fabulous example. Huge artistic success, but ended up recouping something like $-10 million when it closed? Or BE MORE CHILL's disastrous box office results from last year, another financial failure in new musical theatre. It's trends like that which keep Britney Spears and Jimmy Buffet on Broadway while new works are not. And I anticipate SING STREET and NORTH COUNTRY having similar results (though I hope they don't and wish them the best). It's just not what tourists are interested in, nor the people with enough money to keep Broadway shows afloat.
So to your point, I would absolutely be surprised if either of the shows transfer. And if they did, I would be nervous for them from the day they announce (with my fingers crossed for their success the entire time).