Vanity Fair on Broadway's Reopening - "Not Until There's a F**king Vaccine"- Page 2

[AC126748]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 9:57am

The pandemic, while grim, is also a unique opportunity for Broadway to look inward. “All of this is daunting, but it presents opportunities too,” said the industry veteran. “[We can] broaden our audiences for all shows by using more affordable ticket prices and a shift in marketing strategy to make audiences for whom theatergoing isn’t a regular habit feel welcome coming to Broadway.”

What does that actually mean in practice? It’ll likely yield a Broadway with fewer brands, more plays, quicker turnover of shows, and yes, maybe even more affordable tickets.

This sounds a lot like the West End, and the model seems to work over there. That said, they have a system of subsidization that we don't in the U.S.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 10:05am

I don't know if ANY business can survive waiting for a vaccine.   Do I have the answer?  Not even close.  When would I be willing to go back to the theater?  Not sure, but NY would have to have a pretty strong hold on the outbreak, and masks would need to be required as well as mandatory purell.

 

Anything else?   I don't know yet.  I don't think temperatures are terribly accurate as an indicator.  

[SmoothLover]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 10:32am

The Guthrie is reducing their staff by 79%.

 

[JennH]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 11:02am

AC126748 said: "The pandemic, while grim, is also a unique opportunity for Broadway to look inward. “All of this is daunting, but it presents opportunities too,” said the industry veteran. “[We can] broaden our audiences for all shows by using more affordable ticket prices and a shift in marketing strategy to make audiences for whom theatergoing isn’t a regular habit feel welcome coming to Broadway.”

What does that actually mean in practice? It’ll likely yield a Broadway with fewer brands, more plays, quicker turnover of shows, and yes, maybe even more affordable tickets.

This sounds a lot like the West End, and the model seems to work over there. That said, they have a system of subsidization that we don't in the U.S."

They do, BUT also, their Union is even weaker over there than they are over here (You can thank Thatcher for that). Everything over there costs less overall. You'd be shocked at how many West End actors aren't Union and that's one of many components of why things are cheaper. 

Updated On: 5/23/20 at 11:02 AM

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 12:46pm

dramamama611 said: "I don't know if ANY business can survive waiting for a vaccine. Do I have the answer? Not even close. "

One could say that Broadway is not "any" business; it is sui generis for many reasons. First and foremost, we have to establish what the "business" is. The answer has 2 parts, the physical premises (controlled by the landlords) and the productions (controlled by the producers). The buildings aren't going anywhere and with limited exceptions the theatres are owned outright and sans leverage. And the productions are not ongoing concerns; not surviving is in the DNA of productions (with what seemed like limited exceptions until March 2020.)

Regarding a "vaccine," as I have written, it may be a vaccine but it could also be some other effective treatment or simply that the virus wanders off (as it has done historically, without medical science). What Broadway is looking for is a comfort level that is economically viable. (And no, as you say, we do not have the answer to the question that prompts, although (again based on history) we might expect 1.5-2 years from day 1.)

What do I feel reasonably confident about? There will be no Broadway in the fall, and there will most likely be no Broadway (maybe with a special exception) in the spring. If all goes well, we will have some semblance of a season 21-22.

 

[David10086]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 1:44pm

joevitus said: "A n online gay comic I love--Adam and Andy--has a stripwere Adam is sick and petulant, and Andy says if he doesn't behave, he'll take his temperature anally, and Adam scolds him for trying to turn him on when he's ill."

LOL! That is so funny ! 

 

Back to to the topic at hand:

The magazine interview talks about long-running shows such as "Wicked', 'Lion King' and "Hamilton' but my question is about the longest running show: "Phantom".  Where does this show play into all of this ? A survivor, or not ? 

Updated On: 5/23/20 at 01:44 PM

[Bobmortton]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 2:05pm

Call me crazy but, I hope the mega-hits die. I liked what they predicted--more turn over and more plays. I rather see an Ivo Van Hove or a Rachel Chavkin production that is emotionally impactful and minimal compared to a bloated mess that is called "art" (Six, Frozen, etc.). I feel that the way we approach theatre post-pandemic, mainly due to finances and the desire of a low running cost, will be much more streamlined and simple. But, I think being confined financially often produces some of the best theatre. Plus, hopefully, it will result in lower ticket prices. Just some thoughts. 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 3:17pm

@Bobmortton to close the loop on what I said before, while there may be a few streamlined and simple shows that open in the short run, and while you and I may prefer this, it is important to remember that Broadway is a commercial enterprise and once we are free of the shackles of covid 19, no one thinks the tourists are going to return to see these shows much less pay for them. Unless you think Broadway is destined to become a giant non-profit theatre hub, what you are proposing is not viable. 

[AEA AGMA SM]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 3:33pm

I've heard Six called a number of things, but hearing it called "bloated" here in this thread is a first.

[sabrelady]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 4:18pm

Vaccines  r not that impossible.

There r 2 phase 2 trials going on ( amongst numerous phase one) CanSino Biologics Inc. and Oxford University Vaccine Group ( w Astro Zenica) . 

 Last month, scientists at Oxford University began vaccinating more than 1,000 volunteers in a preliminary study designed to test the shot’s safety. Those results aren’t in yet but on Friday, the scientists announced they’re expanding to 10,260 people across Britain, including older people and children.

There is incredible progress being made very quickly, I have a lot of hope in these  two ( esp the Oxford group) I believe that we may have a viable vaccine by as early as January.

I know it seems  FOREVER but  this will come to be- believe.

 

[JennH]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 5:03pm

^^^ We're not saying vaccines aren't possible. We're saying that waiting for ANYTHING to reopen until there is one isn't a stainable option. The "shut everything down to not overwhelm hospitals" crowd went from that to "keep everything shut until a vaccine comes!" very quickly, which again...isn't sustainable. And that was the study I mentioned in my previous response on the first page of this thread. And yes it's promising thus far, but that best case scenario is "if all goes well and smoothly". Anything can happen from now until the end of the year. That study could give us a vaccine or at least a useful treatment, or it could yield nothing and the studies and tests start all over. As mentioned by many others, there are viruses that still exist among us but there's no vaccines for them, so humanity has learned to live with them out of necessity. It does help that there are treatments for many of them, and enough is known about them to know how to deal with them in the first place. That's why this whole thing has thrown humanity for a loop. It was a stark reminder that new viruses come about every so often and preparedness is paramount. Preparedness for any specific scenario is especially key right now...we need to prep for it ALL. Prep for a vaccine or prep for nothing, and everything in between.

[joevitus]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 5:12pm

Subjecting giant swaths of people to a deadly virus because they are all breathing next to each other in an enclosed space isn't a particularly sustainable option, either. There may be a few weeks of daring among eager tourists--like there were those few teen "COVID Parties" that laughed at people's fears. Those parties resulted in a quick spread of COVID-19 among participants and teens stopped having those parties. Likely the same would happen if any Broadway show reopens, too.

 

[itsjustmejonhotmailcom]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 5:23pm

joevitus said: "Subjecting giant swaths of people to a deadly virus because they are all breathing next to each other in an enclosed space isn't a particularly sustainable option, either. There may be a few weeks of daring among eager tourists--like there were those few teen "COVID Parties" that laughed at people's fears. Those parties resulted in a quick spread of COVID-19 among participants and teens stopped having those parties. Likely the same would happen if any Broadway show reopens, too.

"

Broadway isn't entirely unique in that regard. What about a call center with 400 people working in the same open room sans cubicles? A worker at a grocery store coming into contact with thousands of people on a shift. An airplane with 400 people on it. There are a ton of obstacles to reopening Broadway, but we're not the only industry where lots of people spend extended time in close quarters with others.

[poisonivy2]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 5:47pm

The whole issue isn't when Broadway reopens. In parts of the country things have reopened ... but are still empty. It's about when large swaths of people feel safe venturing into large gatherings again.

and that's impossible to predict. You might need a vaccine, you might need reliable treatments (like the HIV virus has reliable treatments), you might need herd immunity. It's just not happening anytime soon.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 6:42pm

This "debate" here about the science is a sidebar and a diversion. (There is a collateral point closer to this debate, which has to do with actors and what sorts of plays might be possible in a safe way. Notwithstanding the armchair epidemiologists here, AEA is going to err on the side of caution, as it must.)

As poisonivy2 says, the essential inquiry is about the market: when will a critical mass of tourists return? As has been rehearsed in this thread, there will be no Broadway in the sense folks here are pining for until people decide to come from all over the world again. And it is preposterous to think that will happen without some basis for safety. Yet another problem is that, while NY is approaching a much safe (if not totally safe) status, there is no legal way to keep the crazies in other areas with their reopened spikes from coming here and that also means that there will need to be a path to individual safety.

[joevitus]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 7:41pm

I agree with all of the last three posts.

[bear88]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 7:50pm

I am probably a reasonable test case. I live in California, love New York City and see a lot of theater locally while trying of late to make trips to NYC to see shows once a year. That’s less than most people on this board but more than the average tourist.

When would I feel comfortable going to New York City with my wife and one or both adult daughters? Barring a vaccine or an effective treatment, not soon. I will certainly have seen shows locally before I consider a plane trip across the country. Plus, what will our financial situation be then?

Between now and then, I will start moving around more. (At the moment, I rarely leave my house because I have been working from home.)

Theaters are pretty much the last place I will venture, given the obvious risks (to myself and others) as well as the fact that it’s voluntary. I will have to take risks for my job. I don’t have to take extra risks on vacation.

Realistically, I don’t think a New York City trip is in the offing until spring of 2022 though fall 2021 could happen if the things improve more rapidly. But once things clear up, if my financial situation is OK, I would be even more eager to make trips after that. The virus is yet another reminder that life is short.

Broadway will need a mass of tourists to open profitably. It’s hard to know now when that is going to be.

[jdrye222]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 9:32pm

Message deleted because people who know nothing about are inferring and assuming they know what my knowledge stems from and what my background is regarding this topic. 

If you've quoted my post please respectfully delete.  

 

Updated On: 5/24/20 at 09:32 PM

[Highland Guy]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 10:23pm

jdrye222 said: "The speed at which the arts were wiped off the face of the earth, and the willingness of people to just let it be erased is astonishing to me."

 

You are wrong.  The arts have not been "wiped off the face of the earth".  And here is the proof that you are wrong.

 

 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 11:44pm

@jdrye222 it is obvious that you are wrestling with the tough issues confronting us, but respectfully, you've come down at the wrong place. I am not going to argue with you, but let me leave a couple of thoughts that perhaps you will ponder. First, I would suggest that while you may not be a "denier," what you are doing is substituting your lay person's judgment for the accumulated knowledge of those who have spent their lifetime studying disease. Second, again respectfully, you are being impatient in a way that is quintessentially 21st Century American. The good news is that we appear on the verge of having this in the rear view mirror in New York. Why, because we found the requisite patience. Heaven help the poor misguided souls down south and elsewhere that are about to pay the price for their impatience. We are better than this. And by the way, the non-covid medical system is totally up and running in NYC. And the pall that had descended on us in late March and early April is lifting. But keep wearing your mask. Please. PS the only lives that have been sacrificed are those lost due to greed and and bunch of -isms of which you are no doubt well aware.

Updated On: 5/23/20 at 11:44 PM

[inmyownlittlecorner]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 11:55pm

I pull in two different ways with this topic on reopening. My brain says that it’s logical to wait, it will keep the most people healthy, Broadway can wait. But my heart screams that people have no jobs, it points to my friends out of work, to the shows that can’t stay afloat. I’m really in the middle on this topic, it’s hard to make an informed decision and I feel bad for politicians (never thought I’d actually say THOSE words...) who have to make these choices because it is very hard.

[JayElle]

Posted: 5/23/20 at 11:56pm

hearthemsing22 said: "BWAY Baby2 said: "Let's not forget the news from yesterday- surface transmission much less a risk than previously thought- and make cut the risk down to 75 per cent if you wear one- and with temperature checks at the door- I would definitely see a show when the time is right- and go on an airplane if it seems safe- I bet Spring 2021 will see the opening of many shows- vaccine or not."

Do you really think they'd do temperature checks at the door? What if people come in with a group and one of them has a high temperature? What happens to that group? What happens to the money they spent getting there? Do you think people would risk it? Is that really a viable option?"

If someone has a high temp, highly unlikely they could go to show. Likely feeling miserable.

 

[poisonivy2]

Posted: 5/24/20 at 1:03am

jdrye222 said: "The speed at which the arts were wiped off the face of the earth, and the willingness of people to just let it be erased is astonishing to me. This VF article has no named sources, no real information, no contrary interviewee, literally not a single name cited aside from its author. The "producer" if they exist seems to have a long-standing axe to grind in several ways and sounds like a really unbearable type of person ... All these mysterious people giving quotes, when almost every publication has clear and concise quotes from named sources.

I will never understand the ways in which every facet of society, including all other health problems, has been tossed aside for this. I understand it is serious - I'm not a "denier" ... But we have a lot of serious illnesses, all of which have been pushed down the line of care for almost 3 months now. Cancer screenings WAY down..... Childhood vaccination schedules completely squandered..... Preventive physicals and lab tests, all seemingly unimportant.... Entire swaths of industries and millions of people's livelihoods deemed non-essential .... And millions losing their health insurance too.

I am sad about the illness and death, but I think in the long run, it will end up having been TINY compared to all of the illness, death, poverty, loss of purpose, loss of empathy and care for each other, that will have been caused by our measures to try to prevent the spread of something that will end up having a comorbidity factor of nearly 98% when all is said and done. (And no, I'm not right-wing, quite the opposite... I respect everyone's own position, I wear the mask because it makes others feel better, etc etc ... I just think we were forced to choose some lives over others in quite arbitrary and out-of-proportion ways that we will never recover from.)"

1. Ok the point about non-covid related medical services being unavailable: ABSOLUTELY not true. A week ago I was struggling with an infection. CityMD is offering 24 hour video consultations and a doctor was able to see me, ask me some questions, and write me a prescription for antibiotics and send it over to a pharmacy. 

2. About serious diseases, it's one of the cruelties of covid that it seems to FIND people who already have underlying health conditions and then decimates their body. A friend of mine was a hard-core Trump supporter and thought the rules for quarantining were "silly." I spoke to him in April and he said he was fine. I warned him that with diabetes and kidney problems he was vulnerable. I called him a month later and his family called back to tell me he had passed away that morning from covid complications. Not an old guy at all. I'm still shaken up by the loss. Despite our political differences he was a great guy.

3. Arts are important. I would love to go to a Broadway play again. But theater with its close contact between actors is a HUGE risk factor. And even if everything opens up again, do you think the cast of Moulin Rouge will be ready to come back without any treatment or vaccine? The virus ran through multiple cast members and Danny Burstein got very sick. And even if Danny came back, what would that mean for his wife who is immuno-compromised?

My point is theater actors don't exist in a vacuum. You can't have them with this show must go on mentality when they might not feel safe. 

4. And even if 100% of theater actors felt safe, the fact is that B'way audiences which trend older and rely on tourism won't come back, open theaters or no open theaters, until the situation around the world stabilizes one way or another. 

5. Which brings me to the last point: opening the economy vs. fighting covid is a false dichotomy. The economy will not come roaring back BECAUSE people are suddenly dying. Suppose you have a company. You worked hard to build that company. You're a humane boss and not like Amazon or the meat plant factories. You have good people working for you. Now suppose 1/3 of the company falls sick, and some are hospitalized and a few die. Your company is going to be bleeding money. 

[Jarethan]

Posted: 5/24/20 at 2:19am

poisonivy2 said: "jdrye222 said: "The speed at which the arts were wiped off the face of the earth, and the willingness of people to just let it be erased is astonishing to me. This VF article has no named sources, no real information, no contrary interviewee, literally not a single name cited aside from its author. The "producer" if they exist seems to have a long-standing axe to grind in several ways and sounds like a really unbearable type of person ... All these mysterious people giving quotes, when almost every publication has clear and concise quotes from named sources.

I will never understand the ways in which every facet of society, including all other health problems, has been tossed aside for this. I understand it is serious - I'm not a "denier" ... But we have a lot of serious illnesses, all of which have been pushed down the line of care for almost 3 months now. Cancer screenings WAY down..... Childhood vaccination schedules completely squandered..... Preventive physicals and lab tests, all seemingly unimportant.... Entire swaths of industries and millions of people's livelihoods deemed non-essential .... And millions losing their health insurance too.

I am sad about the illness and death, but I think in the long run, it will end up having been TINY compared to all of the illness, death, poverty, loss of purpose, loss of empathy and care for each other, that will have been caused by our measures to try to prevent the spread of something that will end up having a comorbidity factor of nearly 98% when all is said and done. (And no, I'm not right-wing, quite the opposite... I respect everyone's own position, I wear the mask because it makes others feel better, etc etc ... I just think we were forced to choose some lives over others in quite arbitrary and out-of-proportion ways that we will never recover from.)"

1. Ok the point about non-covid related medical services being unavailable: ABSOLUTELY not true. A week ago I was struggling with an infection. CityMD is offering 24 hour video consultations and a doctor was able to see me, ask me some questions, and write me a prescription for antibiotics and send it over to a pharmacy.

2. About serious diseases, it's one of the crueltiesof covid that it seems to FIND people who already have underlying health conditions and then decimates their body. A friend of mine was a hard-core Trump supporter and thought the rules for quarantining were "silly." I spoke to him in April and he said he was fine. I warned him that with diabetes and kidney problems he was vulnerable. I called him a month later and his family called back to tell me he had passed away that morning from covid complications. Not an old guy at all. I'm still shaken up by the loss. Despite our political differences he was a great guy.

3. Arts are important. I would love to go to a Broadway play again. But theater with its close contact between actors is a HUGE risk factor. And even if everything opens up again, do you think the cast of Moulin Rouge will be ready to come back without any treatment or vaccine? The virus ran through multiple cast members and Danny Bursteingot very sick. And even if Danny came back, what would that mean for his wife who is immuno-compromised?

My point is theater actors don't exist in a vacuum. You can't have them with this show must go on mentality when they might not feel safe.

4. And even if 100% of theater actors felt safe, the fact is that B'way audiences which trend older and rely on tourism won't come back, open theaters or no open theaters, until the situation around the world stabilizes one way or another.

5. Which brings me to the last point: opening the economy vs. fighting covid is a false dichotomy. The economy will not come roaring back BECAUSE people are suddenly dying. Suppose you have a company. You worked hard to build that company. You're a humane boss and not like Amazon or the meat plant factories. You have good people working for you. Now suppose 1/3 of the company falls sick, and some are hospitalized and a few die. Your company is going to be bleeding money."

I agree with everything you said, with the possible exception of #5.  I think that one is more complex.  On the one hand, I have read that Amazon doesn't pay its people well and much of the work is soulless; I don't know much about the meat packing firms, but I did read that there are a lot of illegals and low wage earners working for them, so I am pretty sure I know where you are going.  I have to admit, however, that I am very thankful for Amazon right now.  It is the only was I was able to get a number of things related to living in the pandemic -- couldn't get masks, gloves, alcohol wipes at all -- until I went on Amazon, for which I am grateful.  You point ut a very real dilemma with 5.

[HogansHero]

Posted: 5/24/20 at 9:03am

jdrye222 said: "Message deleted because people who know nothing about are inferring and assuming they know what my knowledge stems from and what my background is regarding this topic.

If you've quoted my post please respectfully delete."

This is a clever way to avoid admitting you were wrong but it is pretty transparent. LOL