New York Times Survey of Tony Voters

[Sally Durant Plummer]

Posted: 6/10/22 at 2:50pm

A survey of 181 Tony voters shows that  "A Strange Loop" and "The Lehman Trilogy" are almost certain to win.

A ‘Strange’ Wind Blowing: Tony Voters Like ‘Loop’ and ‘Lehman’

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 6/10/22 at 3:15pm

Really interesting read this year. Thank you for sharing!

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 6/10/22 at 3:28pm

The most interesting part of that was how many out of town voters can’t vote this year because of Covid. That absolutely can change a lot of potential outcomes. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 6/10/22 at 3:53pm

Jordan Catalano said: "The most interesting part of that was how many out of town voters can’t vote this year because of Covid. That absolutely can change a lot of potential outcomes."

This. Would love to know how many total people actually voted this year when all is said and done.

Best Actress in a Play is the biggest surprise for me. I'd be thrilled if Didi O'Connell actually wins. Shocked to see LaChanze's name there, too.

Either way, I think we're in for a few surprises –– be it a surge of support for MJ/Frost, or a SIX score win, or Jaoquina, or something else.

Gordon Cox in Variety released his today, too, with similar results.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 6/10/22 at 4:08pm

Appreciate their info, because I'm finding this to be one of the hardest years to predict in recent memory. The unpredictability kind of adds to the fun, but I'm not used to being quite so in the dark on so many categories! I have a reputation to uphold among my casual-theatre-lover friends lol! 

Even before this came out, I was actually leaning toward O'Connell in my predictions - mostly by process of elimination:

Negga and Beans just don't seem like realistic winners to me; Negga because of the production she's in, and the fact that Lady Macbeth is on the smaller side of "leading" roles. Beans because, while there was a lot of enthusiasm for her performance (including from me), I don't think it was enough of a tour de force performance - nor was the production popular enough - to vault her past her most established competitors.

LaChanze seems like a more viable winner, but it just seems like there's more enthusiasm for the other two. Also, I feel like Parker and O'Connell both did some of their best work with their respective performances, whereas I think LaChanze was very good, but has given more memorable performances in the past. 

So in my mind, that leaves us with O'Connell vs. Parker. And while we all know back-to-back Tony wins are well within the realm of possibility, I just feel like there will be a notable subset of voters who would rather give the award to the seasoned pro who has never won a Tony, who ALSO delivered a tour de force performance. 

Updated On: 6/10/22 at 04:08 PM

[EllieRose2]

Posted: 6/10/22 at 4:10pm

 Some industry veterans have suggested that Tony voters who live outside New York might be reluctant to support “A Strange Loop” because its sexual content could make it challenging to produce on tour. But that does not appear to be a decisive factor: “A Strange Loop” is favored by half of the voters I spoke with; about one-fifth are supporting “MJ,” the musical about Michael Jackson, which they uniformly praised as entertaining, and the other contenders have less support.

“Six,” the fan favorite that was all the rage in 2020, when it came within a few hours of opening before theaters shut down, seems to have lost some heat among voters who no longer think of it as a new show because its run began before the pandemic. But shed no tears for “Six”: it is proving to be hugely successful, with strong box office grosses and a thriving touring market.

This is all wonderful to hear and could not agree more regarding the second paragraph. Same with the information about Myles and Jaquel. Such incredible young talent. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 6/10/22 at 4:15pm

One of the great tricks of MJ's staging is that the actors playing "MJ" and "Michael" are both so excellent and in sync with each other that it wouldn't be tough to combine the two in your memory after seeing the show. And I think that gives the impression that Frost's part is even bigger than it actually is.

Updated On: 6/10/22 at 04:15 PM

[EllieRose2]

Posted: 6/10/22 at 4:25pm

Yes! 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 6/10/22 at 4:36pm

JBroadway said: "And while we all know back-to-back Tony wins are well within the realm of possibility, I just feel like there will be a notable subset of voters who would rather give the award to the seasoned pro who has never won a Tony, who ALSO delivered a tour de force performance."

This would actually only be the second time in the history of the Tonys where someone won back-to-back LEAD acting awards (we've of course seen it in featured or a combo featured-leading ala Laurie Metcalf, but the only performer to win in lead categories in back-to-back years is Gwen Verdon all the way back in the late 1950s (and she actually tied one of those two years)).  So that's actually why I'd lean away from Parker here (although I agree it's very much a two-horse race and she could easily still end up taking it and breaking that 60-year streak).

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 6/10/22 at 5:12pm

Stats are destined to be broken –– especially in this Covid world –– and there's an extremely possible scenario in which Sharon D Clarke and Mary Louise Parker BOTH break stats this year.

Updated On: 6/10/22 at 05:12 PM

[Synecdoche2]

Posted: 6/10/22 at 5:16pm

Certainly these are the most competitive Tony Awards since I moved to New York. I'm excited to find out who wins what, and I have a feeling there'll be some real surprises.

Deirdre O'Connell gave one of the most astonishing performances ever in Dana H. The only question: is that enough to get her the Tony over a legend like Parker?

Updated On: 6/10/22 at 05:16 PM

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 6/10/22 at 10:25pm

So these are the projected frontrunners from what I've gathered of the New York Times and Variety's interviews with Tony voters...

Best Musical: A Strange Loop

Best Play: The Lehman Trilogy

Best Revival of a Musical: Company

Best Revival of a Play: Take Me Out, though it's too close to call.

Best Lead Actor in a Musical: Myles Frost or Jaquel Spivey

Best Lead Actress in a Musical: Sharon D. Clarke or Joaquina Kalunkango

Best Lead Actor in a Play: Simon Russell Beale

Best Lead Actress in a Play: Deidre O'Connell, although LaChanze and Mary-Louise Parker both still have a shot.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Matt Doyle

Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Patti LuPone

Best Featured Actor in a Play: Jesse Tyler Ferguson

Best Featured Actress in a Play: Uzo Aduba

Best Direction of a Musical: Marianne Elliott

Best Direction of a Play: Sam Mendes

Best Book of a Musical: A Strange Loop

Best Original Score: A Strange Loop, although Six could still take it.

Best Choreography: MJ

[Bettyboy72]

Posted: 6/10/22 at 11:17pm

Synecdoche2 said: "Certainly these are the most competitive Tony Awards since I moved to New York. I'm excited to find out who wins what, and I have a feeling there'll be some real surprises.

Deirdre O'Connell gave one of the most astonishing performances ever in Dana H. The only question: isthat enough to get her the Tony over a legend like Parker?"

It’s a shame so few people got to see Deidre. My three attempts were thwarted by first the pandemic and then the shortened Broadway run.

I still think Winningham has a great shot. She will be fresher in voters minds than Clarke and does Kalunkango even have any buzz in that show? I know she has one great song, but isn’t the show a total dud? 

 

[OhHiii]

Posted: 6/11/22 at 9:11am

With so many close races, particularly in Best Leading Actress, there’s always the possibility the two front runners split votes and a would be 3rd place rises to the top. Ask Christopher Ashley how he got his Tony over both Rachel Chavkin and Michael Greif in 2017.

I think there’s a real possibility that any 4 of the Musical ladies could walk away with it (sorry, Carmen, not you unfortunately) and given only folks who saw both Dierdre and LaChanze can vote in that category, I’d say it’s even less likely MLP takes the trophy. This is where the voting body numbers make a difference. 

What I do think will benefit most from the reduced voter numbers is A Strange Loop. Fewer out of towners means road viability is less of a factor than other years. The road would certainly favor MJ. Think that also gives an edge to Jaquel over Myles too.

If MJ takes Best Musical over both Strange Loop and Six, the entire enterprise is illegitimate. There’s no other way to put it. 

[BJR]

Posted: 6/11/22 at 9:45am

I feel like there will be some surprises this year. Lots of close races, a smaller pool of voters.

There is always a surprise or two, but this year feels as it has less locks (I'd say only 1/4 of the races). The question is where!

[Princeton78]

Posted: 6/11/22 at 2:53pm

Call me crazy, but I have this feeling that Simard is going to be walking to the platform in a “Glen Close/Olivia Colman” situation where everyone assumes everyone else will vote for the legend, and votes for the one they just really liked the best. Just my wacky thought for a big possible upset. *shrug*

[JSquared2]

Posted: 6/11/22 at 2:59pm

OhHiii said:   If MJ takes Best Musical over both Strange Loop and Six, the entire enterprise is illegitimate. There’s no other way to put it."

My, how "Trumpian" of you!

[Bettyboy72]

Posted: 6/11/22 at 9:45pm

Princeton78 said: "Call me crazy, but I have this feeling that Simard is going to be walking to the platform in a “Glen Close/Olivia Colman” situation where everyone assumes everyone else will vote for the legend, and votes for the one they just really liked the best. Just my wacky thought for a big possible upset. *shrug*"

Id love for this to happen. This is Simard’s second nomination. She elevates any material she is given. She’s brilliant. 

 

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 6/11/22 at 11:12pm

I'm surprised to hear Uzo so strongly considered for Featured Actress, as I thought her part was so small that it wasn't worth all the branding they did around her.  I also thought Kenita R. Miller would get more love, but I feel like I'd have to be leaning towards Phylicia Rashad after she won the Drama Desk (though she won for lead and not featured), though my personal favorite was probably Julie White.

[BJR]

Posted: 6/12/22 at 9:12am

Princeton78 said: "Call me crazy, but I have this feeling that Simard is going to be walking to the platform in a “Glen Close/Olivia Colman” situation where everyone assumes everyone else will vote for the legend, and votes for the one they just really liked the best. Just my wacky thought for a big possible upset. *shrug*"

I genuinely want Patti to win, but I've been nervous about the possibility Simard or L Morgan Lee take it for that exact reason - everyone assuming Patti will get it. And I love Simard *and* Lee, so not speaking ill of them! I just hope Patti gets that third she deserves for a part I think she's really made her own.

[Princeton78]

Posted: 6/12/22 at 9:50am

Oh! I’d be over the moon if Patti won. But every award show has at least one good upset right? I’ve just had a feeling for a few weeks now that Simard is gaining lots of support.

[SydneyBristow]

Posted: 6/12/22 at 3:08pm

Jennifer Simard deserves the Tony!  Her acting choices made Sarah the standout female character.


If anyone else were playing Joanne (giving the exact same performance as Patti, but without Patti's name and status), I believe Jennifer Simard's Sarah would win over Joanne.