The Great God Pan & The Whale seem likely possibilities
"You travel alone because other people are only there to remind you how much that hook hurts that we all bit down on. Wait for that one day we can bite free and get back out there in space where we belong, sail back over water, over skies, into space, the hook finally out of our mouths and we wander back out there in space spawning to other planets never to return hurrah to earth and we'll look back and can't even see these lives here anymore. Only the taste of blood to remind us we ever existed. The earth is small. We're gone. We're dead. We're safe."
-John Guare, Landscape of the Body
"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle
Here's how to figure it: just think of the worst shows of the year, and the winner will come from them. With that in mind, Vanya and Great God Pan have very good shots at it.
Personally, I think Vanya will get it. The Tony, too.
Who cares? A lot of plays open in a year that the critics love. But I think if you go back and read the reviews you'll see that they weren't out and out raves. I just find it boring and awful written. But I also hated 4,000 miles and Bellville seems like the same sorta "I smoke weed and take pills" kinda drama.
I hope Vanya wins. It's a beautiful achievement in play writing, but who knows what will happen? In recent years they have been seeking out plays that haven't yet played in New York.
Marie: Don't be in such a hurry about that pretty little chippy in Frisco.
Tony: Eh, she's a no chip!
Durang has made the short list before, so VANYA is not a bad guess. But that trend doesn't necessarily mean we can count on DEAD ACCOUNTS making it...
TRIBES, maybe? BAD JEWS?
Words don't deserve that kind of malarkey. They're innocent, neutral, precise, standing for this, describing that, meaning the other, so if you look after them you can build bridges across incomprehension and chaos. But when they get their corners knocked off, they're no good anymore…I don't think writers are sacred, but words are. They deserve respect. If you get the right ones in the right order, you can nudge the world a little.
Tribes is great, but it opened awhile ago in Chicago, so it's been around awhile, also it was written by a Brit, I believe, so not sure it's even eligible.
If Rebeck ever gets a Pulitzer, I will donkey punch Patti Lupone.
I think that Disgraced has a pretty solid shot. I haven't seen the Lincoln Center production of Luck of the Irish, but I loved it when it was in Boston, and think that, too, could have a shot.
I would love to see him get a Pulitzer, but they're kind of humorless. The last comedy they awarded was Lost in Yonkers. And that's not really even a full-out comedy.
I wonder if they'll award anything.
"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."