2022 Tony Awards Predictions — Page 4

God I hope Claybourne Elder doesn't get nominated. He fares somewhat better in act 2 than act 1, but it's not a great performance and someone else might have brought a lot more to the "himbo" characterization if that's what they're going for. (But I also don't know what they're going for. That's one of the roles that just should have remained a woman)

In the interest of collectively *willing* it into the universe, I'd also like to pile onto the Lenk praise. I thought her performance was phenomenal. Going off performance alone, she would be my pick to win, though given she just recently won, I'd rather see Clarke get a Tony for her also-phenomenal performance in Caroline.

Having said that, I'm actually not so concerned about Lenk - this may be a hot take, but I have a gut feeling she'll get in. I feel like in recent years we've seen a lot of cases where a divisive performance still gets in due to the combination of (1) the people who really like them, and (2) getting their foot in the door by playing a big, iconic leading role in a well-liked production. Especially if the ACTING is really strong in particular.

My current prediction is:

Clarke
Feldstein
Kulakango
Lenk
Winngingham

Again, this might be a hot take, but I think Foster will lose out because (a) the role isn't as central as the other leading roles (b) she also has her detractors, and (c) the overall tepid response to the Music Man. But if Feldstein's "Fanny Bryce" isn't well-received, I could see Foster snagging that spot from her. Or maybe Winningham will be the one get kicked out because her role isn't as large, and the show is also quite divisive.

On the outside looking in, is unfortunately, Carmen Cusack. I'd love for her to get a well-deserved nomination for her performance, but I think the combination of the crowded field + "Sunset" being in the rear-view mirror will end up costing her the nomination.

And then I'm guessing the "Six" stars will cancel each other out, and Jeanna de Waal will be forgotten.

I also think Cusack will be left out of this one, even though her performance was phenomenal. I adore Sutton, but I'd pick Carmen over Sutton based on the performances.

I find this leading actress race to be thrilling because we have probably the most contenders ever (14 in total), but with the exception of maybe Clarke, there's no real frontrunner. A lot will depend on Beanie's performance, but several of our leading actress performances are divisive (Foster, Lenk), in shows that are divisive (Cusack, Kulakango, Winngingham), or not really lead roles, but that's where the Tony committee put them (all of the Six ladies, Gambatese). I've said it before, but I really have no idea how you single out one or even two of the Six ladies. All are deserving, but none more than the others. With that in mind, my current prediction would be: Clarke, Kulakango, Winningham, Foster, Lenk. Beanie is the huge spoiler here, and could definitely knock out any of them, except Clarke. Should be excited to watch it unfold!

Updated On: 3/21/22 at 09:36 PM

GoldDerby pundits offer early look at Tony races in the Play categories

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WgC4o8NE-o

blaxx said: "ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "God I hope Claybourne Elder doesn't get nominated. He fares somewhat better in act 2 than act 1, but it's not a great performance and someone else might have brought a lot more to the "himbo" characterization if that's what they're going for. (But I also don't know what they're going for. That's one of the roles that just should have remained a woman)"

I think the opposite. He was the best part of the show for me, much more authentic than Doyle."

They’re both probably getting nominated, as is Sieber. If three guys from Hamilton can all get noms in the Featured Actor category, then so can Company, especially when this revival easily received the best reviews of the 2021-22 Broadway musical season (save for the NYT). The Featured Actor lot will probably be Doyle, Elder, Mays, Scott, and Sieber.


JMO

Scarlet Leigh said: "What are the actual chances of a special award going to the ladies of Six? I was talking about it with some theatre friends on a discord server and we just were not sure if it was a viable option or not with them being eligible for leading already. One on hand, from past examples, when the Matilda's got their join special award, that was something decided upon in lieu of them qualifying for leading actress either as a group or as individuals. But on the other hand, you have the year that John Leguizamo was given a special Tony for Latin History for Morons when he WAS also eligible (but not nominated) for Leading Actor in a Play. What are the actual chances that they look at the over crowded leading category and feel the want to give an honor to the ensemble of Six for working so well as a unit rather than for individual performances?

I'd love to know if the call to place them all in leading was a petition from the show itself or not. They had a chance for at least 2 making it in if they went featured. Now a special award is likely the only chance for any of them to get even mention.

The pandemic sure did Six dirty. It went from being the golden child of the season it would have original been in, a sure lock for Best Score back then to the one that will just miss every award of this season."

Not going to happen. SIX will win its sole award for Costume Design - enough for the show to be billed as "the Tony-winning global sensation" in the future.

From an awards perspective, the show was done dirty by COVID. Luckily, SIX doesn't need Tonys to survive, as it has a huge multigenerational, international fanbase willing to shell out the big bucks to see their idols. The fans will be upset on Tony night (and rightfully so), but it won't hurt the show in the least, from a financial perspective. SIX will run on Broadway much, much longer than A Strange Loop, and McCollum will be laughing all the way to the bank all summer long despite losing top honors.

Updated On: 3/22/22 at 01:50 AM

The only people who should get Tony recognition this year are the Understudies and Swings who had to go on for all the leading actors you all listed with barely any rehearsal, and sometimes for 10-12 days at a time when people repeatedly got COVID. And sometimes 3 different leading roles in a week.

I saw so many great performances by understudies this season that it really got me questioning why Tony's only recognize some people and not others. And sometimes the understudy is better than the original actor. A lot of people are saying Sharon D. Clarke but I saw both her and Sharon C. Brown as Caroline and preferred Ms. Brown. THAT'S THE GAG.

There should be a rule that if an understudy goes on more than 20 times in a role in a 6 months time-frame that they should be labeled either an ALTERNATE or TEMPORARY REPLACEMENT.

Updated On: 3/22/22 at 07:27 AM

''The pandemic sure did Six dirty. It went from being the golden child of the season it would have original been in, a sure lock for Best Score back then to the one that will just miss every award of this season.''

For the record, ''Six'' got 5 Olivier Award nominations (2019) in London: Best New Musical; Best Supporting Actress (which included all 6 actresses); Outstanding Achievement in Music; Best Theatre Choreographer and Best Costume Design. And ''Six'' lost in every category. ''Come From Away'' took Best Musical, Outstanding Achievement in Music and Theater Choreographer. Patti LuPone (''Company'' ) won Best Featured Actress, and Best Costumes went to ''The King and I.''

Updated On: 3/22/22 at 03:16 PM

Personally I feel like Lehman Trilogy’s men would’ve been more likely to get a special award given they’re in a show tipped to win the top prize and I believe got more individual praise than Six’s women. Though it won’t happen for either. The Matilda girls got theirs cause they were deemed ineligible on account of none getting to play the role more than twice (I think) a week, while all these performers worked throughout their entire runs and are theoretically able to be nominated, even if it’s very unlikely.

RippedMan said: " Doyle was great, but I think that's just the part/song? I mean, the staging was the real star of that moment, I thought."

Yeah I kinda agree. I really liked Doyle and would be happy to see him winning the Tony, but yeah the scene is thought through so well that I think any half decent actor (who gets the speed right) could bring down the house. Same with Lois Smith's role in The lnheritance: she really deserved that Tony, but if an actress can't move you with that speech she's clearly in the wrong business.

This conversation came up when the Six ruling was announced. I'd like to copy/paste what I wrote in that thread because it applies to this conversation as well:

"Firstly, there's already precedent for awarding special Tonys to ensembles (the 2002 revival of La Boheme, for example).

Secondly, the Special Tony goes wherever the committee wants. There's no need to be concerned with what precedent it will set, because the committee is under no obligation to follow up-on that precedent. True, it might cause people to say "hey, they awarded Six, so why not award [so-and-so future ensemble]" and the simple answer will be "They didn't feel like it." The special Tony is designed to award excellence wherever they see it.

And yes, it's common to award work that isn't eligible in regular competition, but not necessarily. For example, they recently gave John Leguizamo a special Tony for his run of "Latin History for Morons," even though he was eligible for Best Actor and Best Play - and he even got nominated for the latter, despite also receiving the special Tony the same year! But they felt comfortable doing it because they knew, presumably, that the show was unlikely to be considered a viable winner for Best Play, despite being excellent in its own unique way.

And I think that same logic can apply here; even though the 6 actors are eligible to be nominated, the committee will certainly be aware of how difficult and unusual the situation is, especially given the point of the show. So it seems totally plausible that they'd choose to award them a special Tony.

The one disclaimer I should add is: I haven't seen this cast, so I can't actually say whether I think they DESERVE a Special Tony for their work. I'm just making a case that they fit the bill in theory."