2022 Tony Awards Predictions — Page 5

RW3 said: "Do we see any of the Thoughts in A Strange Loop getting any nominations in the Featured categories?"

Maybe a nomination, but the awards are most likely going to Matt Doyle for Featured Actor and Patti LuPone for Featured Actress. I am more interested in seeing how competitive the leading actor categories are going to be.

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^Right, but like, one can read between the lines. These special awards are seldom random - there's almost always some context that ties them to that particular season in an obvious way. It didn't COINCIDE with Latin History in a random way, it was observably instigated by it. I'm not saying the special award was FOR Latin History exclusively, but it was an alternative way of rewarding him for his continued good work, when they knew they weren't likely to give him a "career Tony" (in the colloquial sense) for Latin History itself.

I don’t think anyone’s denying that, but like they said it’s because of decades of great work - both writing and performing - not just the one show, and that’s not truly comparable to these actors who would only be rewarded for just a single production.

Anyway with the prior talk of actors benefitting from strong material, I won’t deny that it can be more impressive for a performer to do more with little, but that doesn’t mean they should be written off just cause they had something great to work with. Doyle may have the luck of his number being amazingly staged, but he’s still performing a difficult song while adding in great vocals, a ton of laughs, and real emotion throughout. Also, he still does an excellent job outside the song, so it’s not like that’s where all the love is coming from.

Unpopular opinion, but count me among the Elder detractors. The only moments I find drag and are hard to sit through in this production are his scenes (+ PJ's in the park). Especially the scene in Bobbie's bedroom. All of the times (6) I've seen it, the audience's laughter peters out as the scene goes on. Think he gets a lot more credit for being great eye candy than his actual performance warrants. The comedic timing just isn't there for me whereas Fitzgerald, Sieber and Doyle's work is just plain funny.

heybaby said: "I thought Doyle did very, very little with what is a great comedic song. IMHO- Fitzgeral, Sieber and Elder are all giving more impressive performances."

Totally agree. I would be very disappointed if Doyle wins the Tony. The song did all the work, he just managed to get all of the words out at a decent clip. I thought his comedy was VERY broad throughout the show - started at a 10 and had no where to go - and did not find his dramatic moments moving or authentic.

I truly can't remember any of the supporting performance in A Strange Loop, though I remember thinking that the whole thing was poorly directed by Stephen Bracket, which brought down the quality of all the performances.

Can anyone remind me what Andrew-Morrison did in the show? What his stand-out scenes were?

I haven't seen ''Company'' yet, so I have no idea if Matt Doyle is really the front-runner (especially when there are other contenders on the horizon), but I don't know how you separate a performer from his song or his staging. Marianne Elliott directed Jonathan Bailey in the same role of Jamie, with, I'm assuming the same staging, and he got nominated for an Olivier Award and won.

Yes, Doyle's got a great song to sing, but that's no guarantee of a Tony nomination. Beth Howland, who originated the role of Amy and first sang ''Getting Married Today,'' didn't get one, and yet, Veanne Cox, in the 1995 revival, did. Time'll tell..

Updated On: 3/23/22 at 02:43 PM

To defend Matt Doyle a bit, I really do think his performance of the song is unlike any other. Yes, the staging helps add to the comedic element of the song, but I think it's in the way he shapes phrases within the song, where so many others just have it as a running stream of consciousness; his sentences each feel like separate thoughts. I don't think that element of it was quite there prepandemic, and I'm not sure how long it has been worked on, but that along with the following book scene really blew me away in terms of his performance. Of the other men in the show, I think my favorite would be Chris Seiber, but of the other shows so far this season, it really seems like Matt Doyle is the frontrunner to me. I could see potential competition from Robert Sella in Flying Over Sunset (though his performance was far less showy and also in a show that would be closed by the time voting happens) and maybe the middle Michael in MJ (but it seems like all eyes are on Myles Frost for that show).

Of course, there's a lot yet to open, and especially shows I'm not familiar with (how big is Ramin Karimloo's part in Funny Girl anyway?) and my friend who saw the first preview of Paradise Square mentioned Matt Doyle might have competition from that direction, but other members of this board have been mixed about it. But either way it should be an exciting season in just about all the acting categories (except featured actress I suppose, which we're all just assuming already has Patti's name on it, right?).

(''How big is Ramin Karimloo's part in Funny Girl anyway?)

Good question. In the 1964 original production, Nick Arnstein sings with Fanny Brice in only two songs: ''I Wanna Be Seen With You'' and ''You Are Woman.'' He has no solos. It's a thankless part, and yet Sydney Chaplin, who originated the role, got a Tony nomination for Leading Actor because he was billed with Barbra Streisand above the title. (Chaplin was also a former Tony winner.) For this revival, they're beefing up Nick's role to give Ramin Karimloo more to do. They're restoring ''Temporary Arrangement,'' a mediocre solo for Nick that was cut from the original, and turning ''Who Are You Now?'' into a duet for Nick and Fanny in Act II.

At any rate, Karimloo almost certainly will contend in Leading. Interestingly, ''Funny Girl'' is also giving above-the-title billing to Jared Grimes. That's odd because Grimes plays the supporting role of Eddie. (Danny Meehan, who originated the part, was a Tony nominee in Featured.) Grimes' co-stars have been raving about what a great tap dancer he is. I imagine the show will petition to put Grimes in Featured, so he doesn't go head-to-head with Karimloo, and Grimes would stand a much better shot to win in Featured and give Doyle a run for his money. For the record, I've seen Doyle in a number of shows and he's always impressed me. And I could say the same about his co-stars, like Claybourne Elder and Chris Sieber. What a ''Company.''

Updated On: 3/23/22 at 07:42 PM

Does anyone know when Tony nominators tend to attend the shows? Is it closer to nomination time unless the show has announced closing, and then they would try to get in before it closes? Or do they go around opening? How does that timing work?

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I do wonder if with those really great reviews, can SJP get nominated even being, apparently, the only highlight alongside the set?

My predictions for nominations in the musical acting categories (in order of likelihood of winning, in my humble opinion):

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
1. Sharon D. Clarke - Caroline, or Change
2. Katrina Lenk - Company
3. Joaquina Kalukango - Paradise Square
4. Sutton Foster - The Music Man
5. Beanie Feldstein - Funny Girl
DARK HORSE #1: Carmen Cusack - Flying Over Sunset
DARK HORSE #2: Mare Winningham - Girl From the North Country

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
1. Jaquel Spivey - A Strange Loop
2. Hugh Jackman - The Music Man
3. Rob McClure - Mrs. Doubtfire
4. Billy Crystal - Mr. Saturday Night
5. Myles Frost - MJ The Musical
DARK HORSE: Ramin Karimloo - Funny Girl

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
1. Patti LuPone - Company
2. Jennifer Simard - Company
3. Caissie Levy - Caroline, or Change
4. Jane Lynch - Funny Girl
5. Samantha Williams - Caroline, or Change

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
1. Matt Doyle - Company
2. Claybourne Elder - Company
3. Christopher Sieber - Company
4. Christopher Fitzgerald - Company
5. David Paymer - Mr. Saturday Night
DARK HORSE: Marc Kudisch - Girl From the North Country

And then, just for fun, my predictions for lead categories in a play:

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY
1. Mary-Louise Parker - How I Learned to Drive
2. Deidre O’Connell - Dana H.
3. LaChanze - Trouble in Mind
4. Ruth Negga - Macbeth
5. Honestly really not sure here - could go to Ebony Marshall-Oliver, SJP, maybe someone in The Skin of Our Teeth, Debra Messing?

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY (What a dense category this year!)
1. David Morse - How I Learned to Drive
2. Adam Godley - The Lehman Trilogy
3. Simon Russell Beale - The Lehman Trilogy
4. Adrian Lester - The Lehman Trilogy
5. Daniel Craig - Macbeth
DARK HORSE #1: Laurence Fishburne - American Buffalo
DARK HORSE #2: David Threlfall - Hangmen
DARK HORSE #3: Ruben Santiago-Hudson - Lackawanna Blues