Posted: 6/14/24 at 10:23am
I was thinking the same thing, just because I was assuming Suffs was taking both score and book so I thought it had the edge in Best Musical as well (I haven't seen HK but given word of mouth I'm still in denial about that). I didn't really have Outsiders winning anything except lighting either and while I'd be thrilled if it won it would also be extremely weird in how the awards shake out.
Posted: 6/14/24 at 11:06am
The fact that Eddie Redmayne is not even the runner-up for Actor makes me wonder if ''Cabaret'' really takes anything other than ''Scenic Design''?
I will say that if the fight is between ''Hell's Kitchen'' e ''The Outsiders'', Alicia Keys may be a Tony winner by sunday night.
Also, I kinda wanna to bet on Kelli!
Feel confident on Strong too!
Posted: 6/14/24 at 11:56am
Complete Tony Award Predictions 2024
https://www.timeout.com/newyork/theater/complete-2024-tony-award-predictions
But in a race this close, the deciding factor may be practical: The pregnant Mendez has missed a lot of performances this spring—including, presumably, some at which Tony voters were present. That just might put Lewis over the top.
Posted: 6/14/24 at 1:31pm
MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "If The Outsiders takes Best Musical, what else does it win? I think it might have Lighting Design over Illinoise. But nothing else. It would have to make a surprise win in either Book or Score I think. Or maybe take Choreography away from Illinoise too for the The Rumble...but that seems less likely."
I think it should take Score. The surprise I could see happening—tho I wouldn’t consider likely—is director. Which wouldn’t be not deserving
Posted: 6/14/24 at 1:31pm
Tony Awards 2024 Winners Predictions: Category-By-Category Using Math
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/arts/tony-awards-winners-math-2024-ben-zauzmer-1235921822/
Posted: 6/14/24 at 2:02pm
Tony Awards Predictions 2024: Who Will Win? Who Should Win?
http://https://deadline.com/2024/06/2024-tony-awards-predictions-1235970677/
Posted: 6/14/24 at 2:13pm
Posted: 6/14/24 at 3:02pm
Pre-Tony's Conversations With Some Nominees
https://www.wnyc.org/story/pre-tonys-conversations-some-nominees/
Posted: 6/14/24 at 3:12pm
Final Tony Award Predictions: Daniel Radcliffe, Sarah Paulson, Leslie Odom Jr and ‘Merrily We Roll Along’ Among Projected Winners
https://variety.com/lists/2024-tonys-awards-predictions/#recipient_hashed=bcb67c2711d628387f045db3518221bd5ed178f4e4c2f399d0538a827b1aa7ad&recipient_salt=04f4c96625f0da735542bcec5f6a7b2ae30c104b0600175621c5a99e27a72d09&utm_medium=email&utm_source=exacttarget&utm_campaign=newsalert&utm_content=530158_06-14-2024&utm_term=284729
Posted: 6/14/24 at 3:32pm
The New York Times' annual "Talk to Tony Voters" story has some noteworthy results: Michael Paulson, who talked to a quarter of the voters, said The Outsiders is ahead of Hell's Kitchen, with Suffs picking up support from a "substantial minority" of voters. Illinoise and Water for Elephants are not contenders, he writes. It sounds like many voters are looking for an excuse not to vote for Hell's Kitchen, perhaps because it's a jukebox musical or they don't think it's all that good, but the vote is divided enough that it might sneak through. But this is the first I've heard that The Outsiders might be the favorite. The fact that it’s doing well at the box office (not Hell’s Kitchen levels, but impressive) can’t hurt either.
Paulson said two of the leading actor races are close. Kelli O’Hara of Days of Wine and Roses, Maleah Joi Moon of Hell's Kitchen, and Maryann Plunkett of The Notebook are co-leaders among the voters he contacted in Best Actress in a Musical. (I'm personally a bit skeptical about O'Hara just because her show closed months ago.) Jeremy Strong in An Enemy of the People is leading, he wrote, but Leslie Odom Jr. (Purlie Victorious) and Michael Stuhlbarg (Patriots) have support too.
As usual, nothing on the featured actor races or other categories. Paulson hints strongly that Stereophonic could win more Tonys than any of the musicals, even the Merrily We Roll Along revival, which has overwhelming support for Best Revival of a Musical.
I guess it remains to be seen whether Merrily's halo effect will carry it to wins in other categories, including the much-discussed best featured actress in a musical race. Same with Stereophonic.
I have wondered if Tony voters, in the back of their minds, want to crown a hit show after the last two winners never attracted a significant audience and closed at a loss. The divided race, and the commercial success of Hell’s Kitchen, made me think it might win. The Outsiders, also doing well, might give them an out.
Updated On: 6/14/24 at 03:32 PM
Posted: 6/14/24 at 3:55pm
At the moment I have Stereophonic winning 5 Tonys compared to Merrily’s 6. Play, direction of a play, featured actor in a play (preferably for Gelb), lighting and sound design. I don’t see Stereophonic winning score or orchestrations, and featured actress is still a coin toss (though I am leaning towards Young). Could it snag costumes from Jaja and/or set from Appropriate?
If it wins more awards than Merrily, Stereophonic will at least tie The Coast of Utopia for the most Tony wins received by a play.
Posted: 6/14/24 at 4:40pm
BoringBoredBoard40 said: "PegasusOasis said: "2 “A-list performers” are tapinga Tonys number tomorrow, any ideas who? https://shadowcasting.com/calendar/details.aspx?showID=693"
Could this be Gutenberg-related? I have heard rumblings of a tour with two big names involved...."
Did anyone get chosen for this? Did we find out who it is?
Posted: 6/14/24 at 5:55pm
I'm reviewing my predictions and I think I've mostly settled into my picks (or at least my top 2), but Featured Actor in a Play is still confounding me. I think if it's one of the Stereophonic guys it could be either Eli Gelb (who gives the most grounded arc in the show) or Will Brill (who's a better known name with previous Broadway work and also has some shower moments), but since it doesn't seem like there's a frontrunner between them (or Tom Pecinka who's doing excellent work as well), I think they could end up splitting the vote which I'm assuming is why so many people are predicting Corey Stoll? But it seems like Jim Parsons is generally liked (from what I've heard) as well, so would he be considered a higher pick than Corey Stoll?
Posted: 6/14/24 at 6:00pm
Jim Parsons winning for that role would be a travesty, considering he shouldn't even be nominated. Eli Gelb has been my pick since the day the nominations were announced.
Posted: 6/14/24 at 7:07pm
2024 Tony Awards: Best musical is a guessing game, but not all the deserving were nominated – The Morning Call
https://www.mcall.com/2024/06/14/2024-tony-awards-best-musical-is-a-guessing-game-but-not-all-the-deserving-were-nominated/
Posted: 6/14/24 at 9:43pm
It is being reported that Broadway press is being shut out of the red carpet Julie James has it posted in her instagram story.
https://pagesix.com/2024/06/14/entertainment/broadway-press-shut-out-of-the-tony-awards-red-carpet/amp/
Updated On: 6/14/24 at 09:43 PM
Posted: 6/14/24 at 11:34pm
Our 100 Percent Accurate Tonys Predictions
https://www.vulture.com/article/tonys-predictions-100-percent-accurate-broadway.html
Posted: 6/15/24 at 2:17am
kennin said: "It is being reported that Broadway press is being shut out of the red carpet Julie James has it posted in her instagram story.
https://pagesix.com/2024/06/14/entertainment/broadway-press-shut-out-of-the-tony-awards-red-carpet/amp/"
Between the Stereophonic performance debacle and this, some high profile unforced errors from the Tonys this year.
Posted: 6/15/24 at 6:08am
kennin said: "It is being reported that Broadway press is being shut out of the red carpet Julie James has it posted in her instagram story.
https://pagesix.com/2024/06/14/entertainment/broadway-press-shut-out-of-the-tony-awards-red-carpet/amp/"
I’ve seen a handful of influencers on instagram post about going to the rehearsals. I’m assuming they’ll be invited to the actual event too. I personally would rather see Julie James go over influencers. But that’s just me
Posted: 6/15/24 at 8:30am
Posted: 6/15/24 at 8:33am
Ariana DeBose, Tonys Host, Just Might Be the Busiest Woman on Broadway
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/15/theater/ariana-debose-tony-awards-host.html?unlocked_article_code=1.z00.geTw.O66eQqN0UuVM
Posted: 6/15/24 at 8:47am
MezzA101 said: "Tony Awards 2024 Winners Predictions: Category-By-Category Using Math
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/arts/tony-awards-winners-math-2024-ben-zauzmer-1235921822/"
This is an interesting way to attempt predictions. Certainly good to see some synchronization of predictors. But, it's definitely producing some strange results.
Maria Friedman with a 24.9% chance of winning Best Director over Jessica Stone with a 23.8% chance actually made me laugh out loud (to be clear: Stone's work is great, but she's a non-factor in the category). As did the Outsiders in fourth for Best Musical (behind Water for Elephants and with only a 14.6% chance of winning) and Stereophonic with a 16.3% chance of winning Best Score.
There are likely issues with weighting of the inputs. I'd guess the model is overvaluing awards with fundamentally different voter bases, shows that competed in them in different years, different categories, and that include both broadway and Off-Broadway. Hopefully Ben Zauzmer can compare the actual results from this year with his predictions and what each input predicted to weight better for the future!
Posted: 6/15/24 at 9:41am
How can there be less room for a red carpet at Lincoln Center than at Radio City or any 9f the other theatres used in the past?
Something's screwy
Updated On: 6/15/24 at 09:41 AM
Posted: 6/15/24 at 10:57am
Posted: 6/15/24 at 11:06am
Updated On: 6/15/24 at 11:06 AM
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